e-Quarterly Research Bulletin (Vol. 5, No. 1)

[Excerpt] Macro financial risk propagation and its implications on financial stability have emerged as major concerns of governments and financial institutions, particularly those with large financial asset pools. The global financial crisis in 2008–2009 was essentially centered on credit risk involving money markets, and the propagation of such risk across and among financial institutions and sovereigns is related to how connected they are. To understand the concept of connectedness, Merton provides a brief review of the concepts of credit, credit risk, and guarantees. He asserts that risk- free credit is essentially risky credit coupled with a guarantee of payment in the event of a default. That is, risky debt is nothing but risk-free debt less a guarantee of repayment. We note that in complete contingent markets, the holder of debt always has the option to purchase insurance on the debt, pretty much like the credit default swaps that are available in advanced financial markets today. The guarantee could be issued by a financial institution or a sovereign government, and effectively transfers the risk of default from the borrower to the guarantor. From the perspective of the lending institution, however, the instrument or asset it is holding is now essentially risk-free debt. Merton stresses that the guarantees attached to risky debt are in fact insurance on the risk of default, and are akin to put options on assets of borrowers, with maturities similar to those of the debt instrument being guaranteed and a strike price equivalent to the promised payment of debt

Pacific Economic Monitor: Budget Analysis

The Monitor provides an update of developments in Pacific economies and explores topical policy issues

Tracking Report 2011 Adidas Group, Philippines 430259239J

This document is part of a digital collection provided by the Martin P. Catherwood Library, ILR School, Cornell University, pertaining to the effects of globalization on the workplace worldwide. Special emphasis is placed on labor rights, working conditions, labor market changes, and union organizing.FLA_2011_AdidasGroup_TR_Philippines_430259239J.pdf: 86 downloads, before Oct. 1, 2020

Capital Flows Management During the Post-2007 Global Financial Crisis: The Experiences of SEACEN Economies

Although global financial stability in late 2010 and early 2011 has, in general, improved when compared to the 2008-2009 period of the sub-prime global financial crisis, vulnerabilities remain high. The recent World Economic Outlook of the IMF (WEO, September 2011) underlines the two speed recovery processes taking place in the world economies. In advanced economies, especially those hit hardest by the crisis, firms, government and household sectors continue to be heavily indebted and are likely to spur relatively weak demand. Although the financial markets of these economies have, in most parts, returned to profitability, the overall frail balance sheets reflect the general subdued state of the local economy. In sharp contrast, the emerging economies, including those of the SEACEN region, are posting robust growth rates until the second half of 2011, meeting new challenges associated with strong demand, rapid credit and excess liquidity. Price pressures, including potential asset price bubbles, have been the common themes of policy challenges for the SEACEN economies. Managing macro-financial risks, namely balancing growth, balance sheet soundness of the financial institutions, particularly the banking sector, and keeping a lid on inflationary pressures, have been and will likely be the primary policy challenges for these emerging markets in 2011 and 2012. This paper takes stock of recent trends and developments with regard to capital flows in the SEACEN economies. It elaborates in detail, the breakdowns and compositions of the flows. In particular, the focus of the analyses is on key flows such as the international bank lending activities to the region. The paper also summarises and analyses some of the basic push and pull factors of these flows to understand some of the domestic and external drivers of these flows. Some of the economic consequences of these capital flows and policy dilemma facing the SEACEN economies are also looked at. The paper also examines the policy responses of the central banks/monetary authorities, in particular, to mitigate the negative consequences and maximise the benefits of capital flows.

Hunger Incidence in the Philippines: Facts, Determinants and Challenges

The high level of hunger incidence in the country is perhaps one of the most pressing issues that need to be addressed by our policy makers. Official government statistics and data from self-rated hunger surveys show an increasing trend in hunger incidence among Filipino households. Data from National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) show that the percentage of subsistence poor in the country increased to 14.6 percent in 2006 from 13.5 percent in 2003. The Social Weather Stations (SWS) quarterly surveys on hunger incidence also show an increasing trend in the percentage of families that experienced hunger, reaching an alarming level of 24 percent in December 2009, representing about 4.4 million households. One probable cause of the increasing trend in hunger is the rising food prices akin to what the country experienced in 2008. This paper aims to determine the impact of food inflation and underemployment on hunger incidence in the Philippines, using the hunger incidence data from the SWS quarterly surveys on hunger. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to determine the effect of a shock or increase to food inflation and underemployment on total involuntary hunger. Results from the model show that an increase in food prices at the current quarter will increase hunger incidence for a period of five quarters, starting with immediate quarter after the shock occurred. Shocks to underemployment will also increase hunger incidence but the effects last for only two quarters, also starting with immediate quarter after the shock. The results of this study provide relevant information that will be useful in crafting policies related to the Hunger Mitigation Program of the government.Hunger, food inflation, underemployment, vector autoregressive models.

Hunger Incidence in the Philippines: Facts, Determinants and Challenges

The high level of hunger incidence in the country is perhaps one of the most pressing issues that need to be addressed by our policy makers. Official government statistics and data from self-rated hunger surveys show an increasing trend in hunger incidence among Filipino households. Data from National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) show that the percentage of subsistence poor in the country increased to 14.6 percent in 2006 from 13.5 percent in 2003. The Social Weather Stations (SWS) quarterly surveys on hunger incidence also show an increasing trend in the percentage of families that experienced hunger, reaching an alarming level of 24 percent in December 2009, representing about 4.4 million households. One probable cause of the increasing trend in hunger is the rising food prices akin to what the country experienced in 2008. This paper aims to determine the impact of food inflation and underemployment on hunger incidence in the Philippines, using the hunger incidence data from the SWS quarterly surveys on hunger. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to determine the effect of a shock or increase to food inflation and underemployment on total involuntary hunger. Results from the model show that an increase in food prices at the current quarter will increase hunger incidence for a period of five quarters, starting with immediate quarter after the shock occurred. Shocks to underemployment will also increase hunger incidence but the effects last for only two quarters, also starting with immediate quarter after the shock. The results of this study provide relevant information that will be useful in crafting policies related to the Hunger Mitigation Program of the government.hunger; food inflation; underemployment; vector autoregressive models

State of the art of inflation targeting

Inflation targeting has been adopted by an increasing number of central banks as their monetary policy framework. At the start of 2010, some twenty seven central banks were considered fully fledged inflation targeters, and many others are in the process of establishing a full inflation-targeting framework. In this Handbook we publish details of the key features of the inflation-targeting frameworks in each of the 27 inflation targeting central banks around the world. These data enable us to analyse the state of the art of inflation targeting: the legal and institutional arrangements; the design of the inflation target; the decision-making body and process of decision-making; the models and forecasts used by central banks; the accountability mechanisms in place, and the communication and publication strategies. This handbook was written in June 2009 and updated in 2012.Forecasting banknotes

Notes on Equilibrium Exchange Rates: January 2010

In this update of estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) for 30 major economies, Cline and Williamson report on changes in disequilibria in exchange markets since March 2009, the date to which their earlier (June 2009) calculations referred. The overvaluation of the dollar has been sharply reduced from March to the end of 2009, from about 17 percent to about 6 percent. The remaining overvaluation of the dollar would be completely eliminated if the five East Asian economies with seriously undervalued exchange rates were to appreciate to FEER-consistent levels: China (which needs the most appreciation), Hong Kong, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Singapore. Cline and Williamson find that in the important case of the euro, whereas the currency was undervalued against the dollar by about 17 percent in March 2009, by end-December it had closed to about 7 percent below its FEER-consistent rate. Japan's bilateral undervaluation had also narrowed but only slightly. Several currencies have overshot from substantial undervaluation to overvaluation against the dollar, including those of Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia, Hungary, and Poland. These economies typically have high interest rates, and their substantial currency overshooting reflects the shift in the international financial environment from acute panic and safe-haven influences in early 2009 to carry-trade dynamics by the end of the year in the face of zero US short-term interest rates. Two key trade partners for the United States, Canada and Mexico, have both swung from modest undervaluation against the dollar to somewhat greater overvaluation. The authors conclude with a reestimation of the FEER-consistent dollar rate for one important currency, the Korean won, and conclude that its FEER-consistent rate is now about 1,000 won to the dollar.

Transforming aquatic agricultural systems towards gender equality: a five country review

Aquatic agricultural systems (AAS) are systems in which the annual production dynamics of freshwater and/or coastal ecosystems contribute significantly to total household income. Improving the livelihood security and wellbeing of the estimated 250 million poor people dependent on AAS in Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Philippines, the Solomon Islands and Zambia is the goal of the Worldfish Center-led Consortium Research Program (CRP), “Harnessing the development potential of aquatic agricultural systems for development.” One component expected to contribute to sustainably achieving this goal is enhancing the gender and wider social equity of the social, economic and political systems within which the AAS function. The CRP’s focus on social equity, and particularly gender equity, responds to the limited progress to date in enhancing the inclusiveness of development outcomes through interventions that offer improved availability of resources and technologies without addressing the wider social constraints that marginalized populations face in making use of them. The CRP aims to both offer improved availability and address the wider social constraints in order to determine whether a multi-level approach that engages with individuals, households and communities, as well as the wider social, economic and political contexts in which they function, is more successful in extending development’s benefits to women and other excluded groups. Designing the research in development initiatives to test this hypothesis requires a solid understanding of each CRP country’s social, cultural and economic contexts and of the variations across them. This paper provides an initial input into developing this knowledge, based on a review of literature on agriculture, aquaculture and gender relations within the five focal countries. Before delving into the findings of the literature review, the paper first justifies the expectation that successfully achieving lasting wellbeing improvements for poor women and men dependent on AAS rests in part on advances in gender equity, and in light of this justification, presents the AAS CRP’s conceptual frame