Personalized Market Basket Prediction with Temporal Annotated Recurring Sequences

Nowadays, a hot challenge for supermarket chains is to offer personalized services to their customers. Market basket prediction, i.e., supplying the customer a shopping list for the next purchase according to her current needs, is one of these services. Current approaches are not capable of capturing at the same time the different factors influencing the customer's decision process: co-occurrence, sequentuality, periodicity and recurrency of the purchased items. To this aim, we define a pattern Temporal Annotated Recurring Sequence (TARS) able to capture simultaneously and adaptively all these factors. We define the method to extract TARS and develop a predictor for next basket named TBP (TARS Based Predictor) that, on top of TARS, is able to understand the level of the customer's stocks and recommend the set of most necessary items. By adopting the TBP the supermarket chains could crop tailored suggestions for each individual customer which in turn could effectively speed up their shopping sessions. A deep experimentation shows that TARS are able to explain the customer purchase behavior, and that TBP outperforms the state-of-the-art competitors

Intention2Basket: A neural intention-driven approach for dynamic next-basket planning

User purchase behaviours are complex and dynamic, which are usually observed as multiple choice actions across a sequence of shopping baskets. Most of the existing next-basket prediction approaches model user actions as homogeneous sequence data without considering complex and heterogeneous user intentions, impeding deep understanding of user behaviours from the perspective of human inside drivers and thus reducing the prediction performance. Psychological theories have indicated that user actions are essentially driven by certain underlying intentions (e.g., diet and entertainment). Moreover, different intentions may influence each other while different choices usually have different utilities to accomplish an intention. Inspired by such psychological insights, we formalize the next-basket prediction as an Intention Recognition, Modelling and Accomplishing problem and further design the Intention2Basket (Int2Ba in short) model. In Int2Ba, an Intention Recognizer, a Coupled Intention Chain Net, and a Dynamic Basket Planner are specifically designed to respectively recognize, model and accomplish the heterogeneous intentions behind a sequence of baskets to better plan the next-basket. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show the superiority of Int2Ba over the state-of-the-art approaches

On network backbone extraction for modeling online collective behavior

Collective user behavior in social media applications often drives several important online and offline phenomena linked to the spread of opinions and information. Several studies have focused on the analysis of such phenomena using networks to model user interactions, represented by edges. However, only a fraction of edges contribute to the actual investigation. Even worse, the often large number of non-relevant edges may obfuscate the salient interactions, blurring the underlying structures and user communities that capture the collective behavior patterns driving the target phenomenon. To solve this issue, researchers have proposed several network backbone extraction techniques to obtain a reduced and representative version of the network that better explains the phenomenon of interest. Each technique has its specific assumptions and procedure to extract the backbone. However, the literature lacks a clear methodology to highlight such assumptions, discuss how they affect the choice of a method and offer validation strategies in scenarios where no ground truth exists. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing a principled methodology for comparing and selecting the most appropriate backbone extraction method given a phenomenon of interest. We characterize ten state-of-the-art techniques in terms of their assumptions, requirements, and other aspects that one must consider to apply them in practice. We present four steps to apply, evaluate and select the best method(s) to a given target phenomenon. We validate our approach using two case studies with different requirements: online discussions on Instagram and coordinated behavior in WhatsApp groups. We show that each method can produce very different backbones, underlying that the choice of an adequate method is of utmost importance to reveal valuable knowledge about the particular phenomenon under investigation