Simulating emergent urban form: desakota in China

We propose that the emergent phenomenon know as ?desakota?, the rapidurbanization of densely populated rural populations in the newlydeveloped world, particularly China, can be simulated using agent-basedmodels which combine both local and global features. We argue thatdeskota represents a surprising and unusual form of urbanization wellmatchedto processes of land development that are driven from the bottomup but moderated by the higher-level macro economy. We develop asimple logic which links local household reform to global urban reform,translating these ideas into a model structure which reflects these twoscales. Our model first determines the rate of growth of different spatialaggregates using linear statistical analysis. It then allocates this growth tothe local level using developer agents who determine the transformation ormutation of rural households to urban pursuits based on local land costs,accessibilities, and growth management practices. The model is applied todesakota development in the Suzhou region between 1990 and 2000. Weshow how the global rates of change predicted at the township level in theWuxian City region surrounding Suzhou are tempered by localtransformations of rural to urban land uses which we predict using cellularautomata rules. The model, which is implemented in the RePast 3software, is validated using a blend of data taken from remote sensing andgovernment statistical sources. It represents an example of generativesocial science that fuses plausible behavior with formalized logics matchedagainst empirical evidence, essential in showing how novel patterns ofurbanization such as desakota emerge

Stories from different worlds in the universe of complex systems: A journey through microstructural dynamics and emergent behaviours in the human heart and financial markets

A physical system is said to be complex if it exhibits unpredictable structures, patterns or regularities emerging from microstructural dynamics involving a large number of components. The study of complex systems, known as complexity science, is maturing into an independent and multidisciplinary area of research seeking to understand microscopic interactions and macroscopic emergence across a broad spectrum systems, such as the human brain and the economy, by combining specific modelling techniques, data analytics, statistics and computer simulations. In this dissertation we examine two different complex systems, the human heart and financial markets, and present various research projects addressing specific problems in these areas. Cardiac fibrillation is a diffuse pathology in which the periodic planar electrical conduction across the cardiac tissue is disrupted and replaced by fast and disorganised electrical waves. In spite of a century-long history of research, numerous debates and disputes on the mechanisms of cardiac fibrillation are still unresolved while the outcomes of clinical treatments remain far from satisfactory. In this dissertation we use cellular automata and mean-field models to qualitatively replicate the onset and maintenance of cardiac fibrillation from the interactions among neighboring cells and the underlying topology of the cardiac tissue. We use these models to study the transition from paroxysmal to persistent atrial fibrillation, the mechanisms through which the gap-junction enhancer drug Rotigaptide terminates cardiac fibrillation and how focal and circuital drivers of fibrillation may co-exist as projections of transmural electrical activities. Financial markets are hubs in which heterogeneous participants, such as humans and algorithms, adopt different strategic behaviors to exchange financial assets. In recent decades the widespread adoption of algorithmic trading, the electronification of financial transactions, the increased competition among trading venues and the use of sophisticated financial instruments drove the transformation of financial markets into a global and interconnected complex system. In this thesis we introduce agent-based and state-space models to describe specific microstructural dynamics in the stock and foreign exchange markets. We use these models to replicate the emergence of cross-currency correlations from the interactions between heterogeneous participants in the currency market and to disentangle the relationships between price fluctuations, market liquidity and demand/supply imbalances in the stock market.Open Acces

On Collective Computation

Postprint (published version

Aerospace medicine and biology: A continuing bibliography with indexes (supplement 331)

This bibliography lists 129 reports, articles and other documents introduced into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information System during December, 1989. Subject coverage includes: aerospace medicine and psychology, life support systems and controlled environments, safety equipment, exobiology and extraterrestrial life, and flight crew behavior and performance

Heuristic search methods and cellular automata modelling for layout design

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Spatial layout design must consider not only ease of movement for pedestrians under normal conditions, but also their safety in panic situations, such as an emergency evacuation in a theatre, stadium or hospital. Using pedestrian simulation statistics, the movement of crowds can be used to study the consequences of different spatial layouts. Previous works either create an optimal spatial arrangement or an optimal pedestrian circulation. They do not automatically optimise both problems simultaneously. Thus, the idea behind the research in this thesis is to achieve a vital architectural design goal by automatically producing an optimal spatial layout that will enable smooth pedestrian flow. The automated process developed here allows the rapid identification of layouts for large, complex, spatial layout problems. This is achieved by using Cellular Automata (CA) to model pedestrian simulation so that pedestrian flow can be explored at a microscopic level and designing a fitness function for heuristic search that maximises these pedestrian flow statistics in the CA simulation. An analysis of pedestrian flow statistics generated from feasible novel design solutions generated using the heuristic search techniques (hill climbing, simulated annealing and genetic algorithm style operators) is conducted. The statistics that are obtained from the pedestrian simulation is used to measure and analyse pedestrian flow behaviour. The analysis from the statistical results also provides the indication of the quality of the spatial layout design generated. The technique has shown promising results in finding acceptable solutions to this problem when incorporated with the pedestrian simulator when demonstrated on simulated and real-world layouts with real pedestrian data.This study was funded by the University Science of Malaysia and Kementerian Pengajian Tinggi Malaysia

Architecting system of systems: artificial life analysis of financial market behavior

This research study focuses on developing a framework that can be utilized by system architects to understand the emergent behavior of system architectures. The objective is to design a framework that is modular and flexible in providing different ways of modeling sub-systems of System of Systems. At the same time, the framework should capture the adaptive behavior of the system since evolution is one of the key characteristics of System of Systems. Another objective is to design the framework so that humans can be incorporated into the analysis. The framework should help system architects understand the behavior as well as promoters or inhibitors of change in human systems. Computational intelligence tools have been successfully used in analysis of Complex Adaptive Systems. Since a System of Systems is a collection of Complex Adaptive Systems, a framework utilizing combination of these tools can be developed. Financial markets are selected to demonstrate the various architectures developed from the analysis framework --Introduction, page 3

DNAgents: Genetically Engineered Intelligent Mobile Agents

Mobile agents are a useful paradigm for network coding providing many advantages and disadvantages. Unfortunately, widespread adoption of mobile agents has been hampered by the disadvantages, which could be said to outweigh the advantages. There is a variety of ongoing work to address these issues, and this is discussed. Ultimately, genetic algorithms are selected as the most interesting potential avenue. Genetic algorithms have many potential benefits for mobile agents. The primary benefit is the potential for agents to become even more adaptive to situational changes in the environment and/or emergent security risks. There are secondary benefits such as the natural obfuscation of functions inherent to genetic algorithms. Pitfalls also exist, namely the difficulty of defining a satisfactory fitness function and the variable execution time of mobile agents arising from the fact that it exists on a network. DNAgents 1.0, an original application of genetic algorithms to mobile agents is implemented and discussed, and serves to highlight these difficulties. Modifications of traditional genetic algorithms are also discussed. Ultimately, a combination of genetic algorithms and artificial life is considered to be the most appropriate approach to mobile agents. This allows the consideration of agents to be organisms, and the network to be their environment. Towards this end, a novel framework called DNAgents 2.0 is designed and implemented. This framework allows the continual evolution of agents in a network without having a seperate training and deployment phase. Parameters for this new framework were defined and explored. Lastly, an experiment similar to DNAgents 1.0 is performed for comparative purposes against DNAgents 1.0 and to prove the viability of this new framework