Methodology for Determining the Acceptability of Given Designs in Uncertain Environments

Managers wish to verify that a particular engineering design meets their require- ments. This design's future environment will differ from the environment assumed during the design. Therefore it is crucial to determine which variations in the envi- ronment may make this design unacceptable. The proposed methodology estimates which uncertain environmental parameters are important (so managers can become pro-active) and which parameter combinations (scenarios) make the design unac- ceptable. The methodology combines simulation, bootstrapping, and metamodeling. The methodology is illustrated through a simulated manufacturing system, includ- ing fourteen uncertain parameters of the input distributions for the various arrival and service times. These parameters are investigated through sixteen scenarios, selected through a two-level fractional-factorial design. The resulting simulation In- put/Output (I/O) data are analyzed through a first-order polynomial metamodel and bootstrapping. A second experiment gives some outputs that are indeed un- acceptable. Polynomials fitted to the I/O data estimate the border line (frontier) between acceptable and unacceptable environments.Uncertainty modeling;Risk analysis;Robustness and sensitivity analysis;Simulation;Bootstrap

A contribution to supply chain design under uncertainty

Dans le contexte actuel des chaînes logistiques, des processus d'affaires complexes et des partenaires étendus, plusieurs facteurs peuvent augmenter les chances de perturbations dans les chaînes logistiques, telles que les pertes de clients en raison de l'intensification de la concurrence, la pénurie de l'offre en raison de l'incertitude des approvisionnements, la gestion d'un grand nombre de partenaires, les défaillances et les pannes imprévisibles, etc. Prévoir et répondre aux changements qui touchent les chaînes logistiques exigent parfois de composer avec des incertitudes et des informations incomplètes. Chaque entité de la chaîne doit être choisie de façon efficace afin de réduire autant que possible les facteurs de perturbations. Configurer des chaînes logistiques efficientes peut garantir la continuité des activités de la chaîne en dépit de la présence d'événements perturbateurs. L'objectif principal de cette thèse est la conception de chaînes logistiques qui résistent aux perturbations par le biais de modèles de sélection d'acteurs fiables. Les modèles proposés permettent de réduire la vulnérabilité aux perturbations qui peuvent aV, oir un impact sur la continuité des opérations des entités de la chaîne, soient les fournisseurs, les sites de production et les sites de distribution. Le manuscrit de cette thèse s'articule autour de trois principaux chapitres: 1 - Construction d'un modèle multi-objectifs de sélection d'acteurs fiables pour la conception de chaînes logistiques en mesure de résister aux perturbations. 2 - Examen des différents concepts et des types de risques liés aux chaînes logistiques ainsi qu'une présentation d'une approche pour quantifier le risque. 3 - Développement d'un modèle d'optimisation de la fiabilité afin de réduire la vulnérabilité aux perturbations des chaînes logistiques sous l'incertitude de la sollicitation et de l'offre

A Bi-Objective Programming Model for Reliable Supply Chain Network Design Under Facility Disruption

Supply chain networks generally are composed of four main entity types: supplier, production centers, distribution centers and demand zones that consist of facilities whose activities involve the transformation of raw material into finished products that are later delivered from the suppliers to the end customers. Supply chain network design as the most important strategic decision in supply chain management plays an important role in the overall environmental and economic performance of the supply chain. The nature and complexity of today’s supply chains network make them vulnerable to various risks. One of the most important risks is disruption risk. Disruptions are costly and can be caused by internal or external sources to the supply chain, thus it is crucial that managers take appropriate measures of responses to reduce its negative effects. A recovery time of disrupted facilities and return it to the normal condition can be an important factor for members of the supply chain. In this paper, a bi-objective model is developed for reliable supply chain network design under facility disruption. To solve this model, we have applied two approaches, i.e., ε constraint method as an exact method and non- dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII) as a meta-heuristic method

Digital Options Theory for IT Capability Investment

While research has shown that investments in IT capability may translate into improved firm performance, how and why they do is still a source of debate. Drawing on financial options thinking, recent research suggests that managers can support appropriate investment decisions by examining digital options. However, current research has not effectively translated the financial options construct into the IT domain, which makes it difficult to rigorously examine digital options. To address this void, we revisit general options theory and review current notions of digital options. To support understanding, we extend current theorizing by offering a rigorous conceptual foundation that defines the digital option lifecycle and relationships to neighboring constructs. To support practice, we present principles for examining digital options for a specific business process. To illustrate the detailed workings of the theory, we examine a production planning process in the dairy industry to arrive at a set of desirable and feasible IT capability investments. Our proposed theory supports managerial practice by offering a rigorous and actionable foundation for digital options thinking. It also sets an agenda for academic research by articulating theory-based constructs and principles that are subject to further empirical and theoretical investigation

Reliability Modeling and Optimization Strategy for Manufacturing System Based on RQR Chain

Accurate and dynamic reliability modeling for the running manufacturing system is the prerequisite to implement preventive maintenance. However, existing studies could not output the reliability value in real time because their abandonment of the quality inspection data originated in the operation process of manufacturing system. Therefore, this paper presents an approach to model the manufacturing system reliability dynamically based on their operation data of process quality and output data of product reliability. Firstly, on the basis of importance explanation of the quality variations in manufacturing process as the linkage for the manufacturing system reliability and product inherent reliability, the RQR chain which could represent the relationships between them is put forward, and the product qualified probability is proposed to quantify the impacts of quality variation in manufacturing process on the reliability of manufacturing system further. Secondly, the impact of qualified probability on the product inherent reliability is expounded, and the modeling approach of manufacturing system reliability based on the qualified probability is presented. Thirdly, the preventive maintenance optimization strategy for manufacturing system driven by the loss of manufacturing quality variation is proposed. Finally, the validity of the proposed approach is verified by the reliability analysis and optimization example of engine cover manufacturing system

Performance Evaluation of Remanufacturing Systems

Implementation of new environmental legislation and public awareness has increased the responsibility on manufacturers. These responsibilities have forced manufacturers to begin remanufacturing and recycling of their goods after they are disposed or returned by customers. Ever since the introduction of remanufacturing, it has been applied in many industries and sectors. The remanufacturing process involves many uncertainties like time, quantity, and quality of returned products. Returned products are time sensitive products and their value drops with time. Thus, the returned products need to be remanufactured quickly to generate the maximum revenue. Every year millions of electronic products return to the manufacturer. However, only 10% to 20% of the returned products pass through the remanufacturing process, and the remaining products are disposed in the landfills. Uncertainties like failure rate of the servers, buffer capacity and inappropriate preventive maintenance policy would be highly responsible the delays in remanufacturing. In this thesis, a simulation based experimental methodology is used to determine the optimal preventive maintenance frequency and buffer allocation in a remanufacturing line, which will help to reduce the cycle time and increase the profit of the firm. Moreover, an estimated relationship between preventive maintenance frequency and MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure) is presented to determine the best preventive maintenance frequency for any industry. The solution approach is applied to a computer remanufacturing and a cell phone remanufacturing industry. Analysis of variance and regression analysis are performed to denote the influential factors in the remanufacturing line, and optimization is done by using the regression techniques and ANOVA results

Operations research models and methods for safety stock determination: A review

In supply chain inventory management it is generally accepted that safety stocks are a suitable strategy to deal with demand and supply uncertainty aiming to prevent inventory stock-outs. Safety stocks have been the subject of intensive research, typically covering the problems of dimensioning, positioning, managing and placement. Here, we narrow the scope of the discussion to the safety stock dimensioning problem, consisting in determining the proper safety stock level for each product. This paper reports the results of a recent in-depth systematic literature review (SLR) of operations research (OR) models and methods for dimensioning safety stocks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic review of the application of OR-based approaches to investigate this problem. A set of 95 papers published from 1977 to 2019 has been reviewed to identify the type of model being employed, as well as the modeling techniques and main performance criteria used. At the end, we highlight current literature gaps and discuss potential research directions and trends that may help to guide researchers and practitioners interested in the development of new OR-based approaches for safety stock determination.This work has been supported by FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia within the R&D Units Project Scope: UIDB/00319/2020, and by the European Structural and Investment Funds in the FEDER component, through the Operational Competitiveness and Internationalization Program (COMPETE 2020) [Project no. 39479, Funding reference: POCI-01-0247-FEDER-39479]