A universal model for mobility and migration patterns

Introduced in its contemporary form by George Kingsley Zipf in 1946, but with roots that go back to the work of Gaspard Monge in the 18th century, the gravity law is the prevailing framework to predict population movement, cargo shipping volume, inter-city phone calls, as well as bilateral trade flows between nations. Despite its widespread use, it relies on adjustable parameters that vary from region to region and suffers from known analytic inconsistencies. Here we introduce a stochastic process capturing local mobility decisions that helps us analytically derive commuting and mobility fluxes that require as input only information on the population distribution. The resulting radiation model predicts mobility patterns in good agreement with mobility and transport patterns observed in a wide range of phenomena, from long-term migration patterns to communication volume between different regions. Given its parameter-free nature, the model can be applied in areas where we lack previous mobility measurements, significantly improving the predictive accuracy of most of phenomena affected by mobility and transport processes.Comment: Main text and supplementary informatio

Endogeneous Versus Exogeneous Shocks in Systems with Memory

Systems with long-range persistence and memory are shown to exhibit different precursory as well as recovery patterns in response to shocks of exogeneous versus endogeneous origins. By endogeneous, we envision either fluctuations resulting from an underlying chaotic dynamics or from a stochastic forcing origin which may be external or be an effective coarse-grained description of the microscopic fluctuations. In this scenario, endogeneous shocks result from a kind of constructive interference of accumulated fluctuations whose impacts survive longer than the large shocks themselves. As a consequence, the recovery after an endogeneous shock is in general slower at early times and can be at long times either slower or faster than after an exogeneous perturbation. This offers the tantalizing possibility of distinguishing between an endogeneous versus exogeneous cause of a given shock, even when there is no ``smoking gun.'' This could help in investigating the exogeneous versus self-organized origins in problems such as the causes of major biological extinctions, of change of weather regimes and of the climate, in tracing the source of social upheaval and wars, and so on. Sornette, Malevergne and Muzy have already shown how this concept can be applied concretely to differentiate the effects on financial markets of the Sept. 11, 2001 attack or of the coup against Gorbachev on Aug., 19, 1991 (exogeneous) from financial crashes such as Oct. 1987 (endogeneous).Comment: Latex document of 14 pages with 3 eps figure

Sustainability of Urban Sprawl: Environmental-Economic Indicators for the Analysis of Mobility Impact in Italy

Sound empirical and quantitative analysis on the relationship between different patterns of urban expansion and environmental or social costs of mobility are still very rare in Europe and the few studies available provide only a qualitative discussion on this. Recently, Camagni et al. (2002) have performed an empirical analysis on the metropolitan area of Milan, aimed at establishing whether different patterns of urban expansion generate different levels of land consumption and heterogeneous impacts of urban mobility. Results confirm the expectation that higher environmental impact of mobility is associated with more extensive and sprawling urban development, more recent urbanisation processes and residential specialisation. The present paper enlarges further the empirical analysis to seven Italian metropolitan areas (namely, Bari, Florence, Naples, Padua, Perugia, Potenza and Turin) to corroborate previous results for the Italian context. The novelty of the present paper is threefold. Firstly, we are interested in exploring the changes occurred to the intensity of the mobility impact across a ten-year period, from 1981 to 1991, corresponding to the Italian economic boom years. Secondly, using an econometric analysis in cross-section, we consider several metropolitan areas at once, being therefore able to explore whether there are significant differences in the way the model explains variations in the mobility impact across various Italian urban areas. Finally, we propose a conceptual interpretation of the causal chain in the explanation of the mobility impact intensity and we test it using Causal Path Analysis.Urban mobility, Sprawl, Environmental sustainability, Collective costs

Proceedings of Abstracts Engineering and Computer Science Research Conference 2019

© 2019 The Author(s). This is an open-access work distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. For further details please see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Note: Keynote: Fluorescence visualisation to evaluate effectiveness of personal protective equipment for infection control is © 2019 Crown copyright and so is licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Under this licence users are permitted to copy, publish, distribute and transmit the Information; adapt the Information; exploit the Information commercially and non-commercially for example, by combining it with other Information, or by including it in your own product or application. Where you do any of the above you must acknowledge the source of the Information in your product or application by including or linking to any attribution statement specified by the Information Provider(s) and, where possible, provide a link to this licence: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/This book is the record of abstracts submitted and accepted for presentation at the Inaugural Engineering and Computer Science Research Conference held 17th April 2019 at the University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, UK. This conference is a local event aiming at bringing together the research students, staff and eminent external guests to celebrate Engineering and Computer Science Research at the University of Hertfordshire. The ECS Research Conference aims to showcase the broad landscape of research taking place in the School of Engineering and Computer Science. The 2019 conference was articulated around three topical cross-disciplinary themes: Make and Preserve the Future; Connect the People and Cities; and Protect and Care

Aeronautical Engineering. A continuing bibliography with indexes, supplement 156

This bibliography lists 288 reports, articles and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in December 1982

Health impacts of wind turbines

This report presents the results of a rapid, desk based analysis of peer reviewed UK and international literature from the last four years on the effects of wind turbines on human health. The review covers literature specified by the Scottish government, peer-reviewed original studies and recent peer-reviewed literature reviews. Recent original studies consist mostly of cross-sectional studies and case studies on the effects of wind turbines on local residents. All studies present evidence for annoyance due to wind turbine noise and most concur that there is evidence for sleep disturbance in the presence of wind farms but not necessarily from noise. Both results are in agreement with the effects of noise from other environmental sources. Other health effects are increasingly reported in the presence of wind turbines but the reviewed literature does not provide firm scientific evidence of a causal relationship with wind turbines or even more specifically wind turbine noise. The most widely quoted cross-sectional studies show correlations between annoyance and visual impact, economic benefit and attitude related to wind turbines. Wind turbine sound is reported to be comparatively weakly related to annoyance and inseparable from the other contributing factors. Literature on low frequency noise and infrasound (LFIS) can be categorised as reviews, sound level measurements around windfarms and discussion of mechanisms of perception and response. A Swedish review finds no evidence to support ‘wind turbine syndrome’ while another concludes that further research is required. Regarding noise measurements, there are concerns that a new generation of wind turbines will produce a sound with a spectrum shifted down in frequency. However, a study in Australia concluded that infrasound levels near windfarms were no higher than elsewhere and that higher levels in urban areas were probably due to traffic and other human activity rather than wind turbines. Some other studies found measured sound levels near wind farms to conform with a range of criteria for LFIS. Papers by Salt et al. propose that LFIS may differentially stimulate structures in the human inner ear, and may instigate health effects even when inaudible. The authors seek to build a speculative case utilising experimental data gleaned from guinea pigs and some observations on human experiences with specific pathological conditions. Based upon the documents submitted, the proposal is unproven, and would need clear data from hypothesis driven independent research in humans in order to be credible. A proposal by US consultants that motion sickness-like symptoms reported at one wind farm might be caused by acoustic excitation of the balance organs is not new and has previously been discounted as an explanation for similar reported effects not involving wind turbines. Other evidence on acoustic stimulation of the balance organs has been noted but not reviewed. Health effects from other wind turbine related sources such as shadow flicker have been reported in several studies and guidelines to be less of a problem. Careful wind farm design and operational restrictions are suggested to be sufficient to minimise the impact. The mitigation strategies have been found to vary widely internationally with some countries and federal states using fixed noise limits, others using noise limits relative to existing background levels and many like the UK using a combination of both. Set-back distances are also used internationally but have a number of disadvantages. The relevant UK guideline document ETSU-R-97 aims to provide a reasonable degree of protection to noise sensitive listeners; without unduly restricting the development of wind turbine renewable energy resources. In the international comparison the ETSU-R-97 guidelines tends to result in comparatively low noise limits although direct comparisons between fixed and relative noise limits are difficult. ETSU-R-97 has been criticised for its inconsistent implementation and relative complexity. Good practice guidelines by the Institute of Acoustics which aim to address the implementation issues are due to be published in May

CHORUS Deliverable 2.1: State of the Art on Multimedia Search Engines

Based on the information provided by European projects and national initiatives related to multimedia search as well as domains experts that participated in the CHORUS Think-thanks and workshops, this document reports on the state of the art related to multimedia content search from, a technical, and socio-economic perspective. The technical perspective includes an up to date view on content based indexing and retrieval technologies, multimedia search in the context of mobile devices and peer-to-peer networks, and an overview of current evaluation and benchmark inititiatives to measure the performance of multimedia search engines. From a socio-economic perspective we inventorize the impact and legal consequences of these technical advances and point out future directions of research