Unsupervised tracking of time-evolving data streams and an application to short-term urban traffic flow forecasting

I am indebted to many people for their help and support I receive during my Ph.D. study and research at DIBRIS-University of Genoa. First and foremost, I would like to express my sincere thanks to my supervisors Prof.Dr. Masulli, and Prof.Dr. Rovetta for the invaluable guidance, frequent meetings, and discussions, and the encouragement and support on my way of research. I thanks all the members of the DIBRIS for their support and kindness during my 4 years Ph.D. I would like also to acknowledge the contribution of the projects Piattaforma per la mobili\ue0 Urbana con Gestione delle INformazioni da sorgenti eterogenee (PLUG-IN) and COST Action IC1406 High Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications (cHiPSet). Last and most importantly, I wish to thanks my family: my wife Shaimaa who stays with me through the joys and pains; my daughter and son whom gives me happiness every-day; and my parents for their constant love and encouragement

Flow Assignment and Processing on a Distributed Edge Computing Platform

The evolution of telecommunication networks toward the fifth generation of mobile services (5G), along with the increasing presence of cloud-native applications, and the development of Cloud and Mobile Edge Computing (MEC) paradigms, have opened up new opportunities for the monitoring and management of logistics and transportation. We address the case of distributed streaming platforms with multiple message brokers to develop an optimization model for the real-time assignment and load balancing of event streaming generated data traffic among Edge Computing facilities. The performance indicator function to be optimised is derived by adopting queuing models with different granularity (packet- and flow-level) that are suitably combined. A specific use case concerning a logistics application is considered and numerical results are provided to show the effectiveness of the optimisation procedure, also in comparison to a “static” assignment proportional to the processing speed of the brokers

Perturbation analysis of an M/M/1 queue in a diffusion random environment

We study in this paper an $M/M/1$ queue whose server rate depends upon the state of an independent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion process $(X(t))$ so that its value at time $t$ is $\mu \phi(X(t))$, where $\phi(x)$ is some bounded function and $\mu>0$. We first establish the differential system for the conditional probability density functions of the couple $(L(t),X(t))$ in the stationary regime, where $L(t)$ is the number of customers in the system at time $t$. By assuming that $\phi(x)$ is defined by $\phi(x) = 1-\varepsilon ((x\wedge a/\varepsilon)\vee(-b/\varepsilon))$ for some positive real numbers $a$, $b$ and $\varepsilon$, we show that the above differential system has a unique solution under some condition on $a$ and $b$. We then show that this solution is close, in some appropriate sense, to the solution to the differential system obtained when $\phi$ is replaced with $\Phi(x)=1-\varepsilon x$ for sufficiently small $\varepsilon$. We finally perform a perturbation analysis of this latter solution for small $\varepsilon$. This allows us to check at the first order the validity of the so-called reduced service rate approximation, stating that everything happens as if the server rate were constant and equal to \mu(1-\eps\E(X(t)))

Analysis of Multiple Flows using Different High Speed TCP protocols on a General Network

We develop analytical tools for performance analysis of multiple TCP flows (which could be using TCP CUBIC, TCP Compound, TCP New Reno) passing through a multi-hop network. We first compute average window size for a single TCP connection (using CUBIC or Compound TCP) under random losses. We then consider two techniques to compute steady state throughput for different TCP flows in a multi-hop network. In the first technique, we approximate the queues as M/G/1 queues. In the second technique, we use an optimization program whose solution approximates the steady state throughput of the different flows. Our results match well with ns2 simulations.Comment: Submitted to Performance Evaluatio

Packet Loss in Terrestrial Wireless and Hybrid Networks

The presence of both a geostationary satellite link and a terrestrial local wireless link on the same path of a given network connection is becoming increasingly common, thanks to the popularity of the IEEE 802.11 protocol. The most common situation where a hybrid network comes into play is having a Wi-Fi link at the network edge and the satellite link somewhere in the network core. Example of scenarios where this can happen are ships or airplanes where Internet connection on board is provided through a Wi-Fi access point and a satellite link with a geostationary satellite; a small office located in remote or isolated area without cabled Internet access; a rescue team using a mobile ad hoc Wi-Fi network connected to the Internet or to a command centre through a mobile gateway using a satellite link. The serialisation of terrestrial and satellite wireless links is problematic from the point of view of a number of applications, be they based on video streaming, interactive audio or TCP. The reason is the combination of high latency, caused by the geostationary satellite link, and frequent, correlated packet losses caused by the local wireless terrestrial link. In fact, GEO satellites are placed in equatorial orbit at 36,000 km altitude, which takes the radio signal about 250 ms to travel up and down. Satellite systems exhibit low packet loss most of the time, with typical project constraints of 10−8 bit error rate 99% of the time, which translates into a packet error rate of 10−4, except for a few days a year. Wi-Fi links, on the other hand, have quite different characteristics. While the delay introduced by the MAC level is in the order of the milliseconds, and is consequently too small to affect most applications, its packet loss characteristics are generally far from negligible. In fact, multipath fading, interference and collisions affect most environments, causing correlated packet losses: this means that often more than one packet at a time is lost for a single fading even

Queueing-Theoretic End-to-End Latency Modeling of Future Wireless Networks

The fifth generation (5G) of mobile communication networks is envisioned to enable a variety of novel applications. These applications demand requirements from the network, which are diverse and challenging. Consequently, the mobile network has to be not only capable to meet the demands of one of these applications, but also be flexible enough that it can be tailored to different needs of various services. Among these new applications, there are use cases that require low latency as well as an ultra-high reliability, e.g., to ensure unobstructed production in factory automation or road safety for (autonomous) transportation. In these domains, the requirements are crucial, since violating them may lead to financial or even human damage. Hence, an ultra-low probability of failure is necessary. Based on this, two major questions arise that are the motivation for this thesis. First, how can ultra-low failure probabilities be evaluated, since experiments or simulations would require a tremendous number of runs and, thus, turn out to be infeasible. Second, given a network that can be configured differently for different applications through the concept of network slicing, which performance can be expected by different parameters and what is their optimal choice, particularly in the presence of other applications. In this thesis, both questions shall be answered by appropriate mathematical modeling of the radio interface and the radio access network. Thereby the aim is to find the distribution of the (end-to-end) latency, allowing to extract stochastic measures such as the mean, the variance, but also ultra-high percentiles at the distribution tail. The percentile analysis eventually leads to the desired evaluation of worst-case scenarios at ultra-low probabilities. Therefore, the mathematical tool of queuing theory is utilized to study video streaming performance and one or multiple (low-latency) applications. One of the key contributions is the development of a numeric algorithm to obtain the latency of general queuing systems for homogeneous as well as for prioritized heterogeneous traffic. This provides the foundation for analyzing and improving end-to-end latency for applications with known traffic distributions in arbitrary network topologies and consisting of one or multiple network slices.Es wird erwartet, dass die fünfte Mobilfunkgeneration (5G) eine Reihe neuartiger Anwendungen ermöglichen wird. Allerdings stellen diese Anwendungen sowohl sehr unterschiedliche als auch überaus herausfordernde Anforderungen an das Netzwerk. Folglich muss das mobile Netz nicht nur die Voraussetzungen einer einzelnen Anwendungen erfüllen, sondern auch flexibel genug sein, um an die Vorgaben unterschiedlicher Dienste angepasst werden zu können. Ein Teil der neuen Anwendungen erfordert hochzuverlässige Kommunikation mit niedriger Latenz, um beispielsweise unterbrechungsfreie Produktion in der Fabrikautomatisierung oder Sicherheit im (autonomen) Straßenverkehr zu gewährleisten. In diesen Bereichen ist die Erfüllung der gestellten Anforderungen besonders kritisch, da eine Verletzung finanzielle oder sogar personelle Schäden nach sich ziehen könnte. Eine extrem niedrige Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit ist daher von größter Wichtigkeit. Daraus ergeben sich zwei wesentliche Fragestellungen, welche diese Arbeit motivieren. Erstens, wie können extrem niedrige Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeiten evaluiert werden. Ihr Nachweis durch Experimente oder Simulationen würde eine extrem große Anzahl an Durchläufen benötigen und sich daher als nicht realisierbar herausstellen. Zweitens, welche Performanz ist für ein gegebenes Netzwerk durch unterschiedliche Konfigurationen zu erwarten und wie kann die optimale Konfiguration gewählt werden. Diese Frage ist insbesondere dann interessant, wenn mehrere Anwendungen gleichzeitig bedient werden und durch sogenanntes Slicing für jeden Dienst unterschiedliche Konfigurationen möglich sind. In dieser Arbeit werden beide Fragen durch geeignete mathematische Modellierung der Funkschnittstelle sowie des Funkzugangsnetzes (Radio Access Network) adressiert. Mithilfe der Warteschlangentheorie soll die stochastische Verteilung der (Ende-zu-Ende-) Latenz bestimmt werden. Dies liefert unterschiedliche stochastische Metriken, wie den Erwartungswert, die Varianz und insbesondere extrem hohe Perzentile am oberen Rand der Verteilung. Letztere geben schließlich Aufschluss über die gesuchten schlimmsten Fälle, die mit sehr geringer Wahrscheinlichkeit eintreten können. In der Arbeit werden Videostreaming und ein oder mehrere niedriglatente Anwendungen untersucht. Zu den wichtigsten Beiträgen zählt dabei die Entwicklung einer numerischen Methode, um die Latenz in allgemeinen Warteschlangensystemen für homogenen sowie für priorisierten heterogenen Datenverkehr zu bestimmen. Dies legt die Grundlage für die Analyse und Verbesserung von Ende-zu-Ende-Latenz für Anwendungen mit bekannten Verkehrsverteilungen in beliebigen Netzwerktopologien mit ein oder mehreren Slices