Performance Analysis of Different Types of Machine Learning Classifiers for Non-Technical Loss Detection

With the ever-growing demand of electric power, it is quite challenging to detect and prevent Non-Technical Loss (NTL) in power industries. NTL is committed by meter bypassing, hooking from the main lines, reversing and tampering the meters. Manual on-site checking and reporting of NTL remains an unattractive strategy due to the required manpower and associated cost. The use of machine learning classifiers has been an attractive option for NTL detection. It enhances data-oriented analysis and high hit ratio along with less cost and manpower requirements. However, there is still a need to explore the results across multiple types of classifiers on a real-world dataset. This paper considers a real dataset from a power supply company in Pakistan to identify NTL. We have evaluated 15 existing machine learning classifiers across 9 types which also include the recently developed CatBoost, LGBoost and XGBoost classifiers. Our work is validated using extensive simulations. Results elucidate that ensemble methods and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) outperform the other types of classifiers for NTL detection in our real dataset. Moreover, we have also derived a procedure to identify the top-14 features out of a total of 71 features, which are contributing 77% in predicting NTL. We conclude that including more features beyond this threshold does not improve performance and thus limiting to the selected feature set reduces the computation time required by the classifiers. Last but not least, the paper also analyzes the results of the classifiers with respect to their types, which has opened a new area of research in NTL detection

Driver Distraction Identification with an Ensemble of Convolutional Neural Networks

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported 1.25 million deaths yearly due to road traffic accidents worldwide and the number has been continuously increasing over the last few years. Nearly fifth of these accidents are caused by distracted drivers. Existing work of distracted driver detection is concerned with a small set of distractions (mostly, cell phone usage). Unreliable ad-hoc methods are often used.In this paper, we present the first publicly available dataset for driver distraction identification with more distraction postures than existing alternatives. In addition, we propose a reliable deep learning-based solution that achieves a 90% accuracy. The system consists of a genetically-weighted ensemble of convolutional neural networks, we show that a weighted ensemble of classifiers using a genetic algorithm yields in a better classification confidence. We also study the effect of different visual elements in distraction detection by means of face and hand localizations, and skin segmentation. Finally, we present a thinned version of our ensemble that could achieve 84.64% classification accuracy and operate in a real-time environment.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1706.0949

Picasso, Matisse, or a Fake? Automated Analysis of Drawings at the Stroke Level for Attribution and Authentication

This paper proposes a computational approach for analysis of strokes in line drawings by artists. We aim at developing an AI methodology that facilitates attribution of drawings of unknown authors in a way that is not easy to be deceived by forged art. The methodology used is based on quantifying the characteristics of individual strokes in drawings. We propose a novel algorithm for segmenting individual strokes. We designed and compared different hand-crafted and learned features for the task of quantifying stroke characteristics. We also propose and compare different classification methods at the drawing level. We experimented with a dataset of 300 digitized drawings with over 80 thousands strokes. The collection mainly consisted of drawings of Pablo Picasso, Henry Matisse, and Egon Schiele, besides a small number of representative works of other artists. The experiments shows that the proposed methodology can classify individual strokes with accuracy 70%-90%, and aggregate over drawings with accuracy above 80%, while being robust to be deceived by fakes (with accuracy 100% for detecting fakes in most settings)

Evaluation methods and decision theory for classification of streaming data with temporal dependence

Predictive modeling on data streams plays an important role in modern data analysis, where data arrives continuously and needs to be mined in real time. In the stream setting the data distribution is often evolving over time, and models that update themselves during operation are becoming the state-of-the-art. This paper formalizes a learning and evaluation scheme of such predictive models. We theoretically analyze evaluation of classifiers on streaming data with temporal dependence. Our findings suggest that the commonly accepted data stream classification measures, such as classification accuracy and Kappa statistic, fail to diagnose cases of poor performance when temporal dependence is present, therefore they should not be used as sole performance indicators. Moreover, classification accuracy can be misleading if used as a proxy for evaluating change detectors with datasets that have temporal dependence. We formulate the decision theory for streaming data classification with temporal dependence and develop a new evaluation methodology for data stream classification that takes temporal dependence into account. We propose a combined measure for classification performance, that takes into account temporal dependence, and we recommend using it as the main performance measure in classification of streaming data

Supervised Classification: Quite a Brief Overview

The original problem of supervised classification considers the task of automatically assigning objects to their respective classes on the basis of numerical measurements derived from these objects. Classifiers are the tools that implement the actual functional mapping from these measurements---also called features or inputs---to the so-called class label---or output. The fields of pattern recognition and machine learning study ways of constructing such classifiers. The main idea behind supervised methods is that of learning from examples: given a number of example input-output relations, to what extent can the general mapping be learned that takes any new and unseen feature vector to its correct class? This chapter provides a basic introduction to the underlying ideas of how to come to a supervised classification problem. In addition, it provides an overview of some specific classification techniques, delves into the issues of object representation and classifier evaluation, and (very) briefly covers some variations on the basic supervised classification task that may also be of interest to the practitioner

Fraud detection in energy consumption: a supervised approach

Data from utility meters (gas, electricity, water) is a rich source of information for distribution companies, beyond billing. In this paper we present a supervised technique, which primarily but not only feeds on meter information, to detect meter anomalies and customer fraudulent behavior (meter tampering). Our system detects anomalous meter readings on the basis of models built using machine learning techniques on past data. Unlike most previous work, it can incrementally incorporate the result of field checks to grow the database of fraud and non-fraud patterns, therefore increasing model precision over time and potentially adapting to emerging fraud patterns. The full system has been developed with a company providing electricity and gas and already used to carry out several field checks, with large improvements in fraud detection over the previous checks which used simpler techniques.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft