Machine Learning Methods for Attack Detection in the Smart Grid

Attack detection problems in the smart grid are posed as statistical learning problems for different attack scenarios in which the measurements are observed in batch or online settings. In this approach, machine learning algorithms are used to classify measurements as being either secure or attacked. An attack detection framework is provided to exploit any available prior knowledge about the system and surmount constraints arising from the sparse structure of the problem in the proposed approach. Well-known batch and online learning algorithms (supervised and semi-supervised) are employed with decision and feature level fusion to model the attack detection problem. The relationships between statistical and geometric properties of attack vectors employed in the attack scenarios and learning algorithms are analyzed to detect unobservable attacks using statistical learning methods. The proposed algorithms are examined on various IEEE test systems. Experimental analyses show that machine learning algorithms can detect attacks with performances higher than the attack detection algorithms which employ state vector estimation methods in the proposed attack detection framework.Comment: 14 pages, 11 Figure

Generalization properties of finite size polynomial Support Vector Machines

The learning properties of finite size polynomial Support Vector Machines are analyzed in the case of realizable classification tasks. The normalization of the high order features acts as a squeezing factor, introducing a strong anisotropy in the patterns distribution in feature space. As a function of the training set size, the corresponding generalization error presents a crossover, more or less abrupt depending on the distribution's anisotropy and on the task to be learned, between a fast-decreasing and a slowly decreasing regime. This behaviour corresponds to the stepwise decrease found by Dietrich et al.[Phys. Rev. Lett. 82 (1999) 2975-2978] in the thermodynamic limit. The theoretical results are in excellent agreement with the numerical simulations.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figure

Perceptron learning with random coordinate descent

A perceptron is a linear threshold classifier that separates examples with a hyperplane. It is perhaps the simplest learning model that is used standalone. In this paper, we propose a family of random coordinate descent algorithms for perceptron learning on binary classification problems. Unlike most perceptron learning algorithms which require smooth cost functions, our algorithms directly minimize the training error, and usually achieve the lowest training error compared with other algorithms. The algorithms are also computational efficient. Such advantages make them favorable for both standalone use and ensemble learning, on problems that are not linearly separable. Experiments show that our algorithms work very well with AdaBoost, and achieve the lowest test errors for half of the datasets

Statistical Mechanics of Soft Margin Classifiers

We study the typical learning properties of the recently introduced Soft Margin Classifiers (SMCs), learning realizable and unrealizable tasks, with the tools of Statistical Mechanics. We derive analytically the behaviour of the learning curves in the regime of very large training sets. We obtain exponential and power laws for the decay of the generalization error towards the asymptotic value, depending on the task and on general characteristics of the distribution of stabilities of the patterns to be learned. The optimal learning curves of the SMCs, which give the minimal generalization error, are obtained by tuning the coefficient controlling the trade-off between the error and the regularization terms in the cost function. If the task is realizable by the SMC, the optimal performance is better than that of a hard margin Support Vector Machine and is very close to that of a Bayesian classifier.Comment: 26 pages, 12 figures, submitted to Physical Review