5,071 research outputs found

    Deep generative models for network data synthesis and monitoring

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    Measurement and monitoring are fundamental tasks in all networks, enabling the down-stream management and optimization of the network. Although networks inherently have abundant amounts of monitoring data, its access and effective measurement is another story. The challenges exist in many aspects. First, the inaccessibility of network monitoring data for external users, and it is hard to provide a high-fidelity dataset without leaking commercial sensitive information. Second, it could be very expensive to carry out effective data collection to cover a large-scale network system, considering the size of network growing, i.e., cell number of radio network and the number of flows in the Internet Service Provider (ISP) network. Third, it is difficult to ensure fidelity and efficiency simultaneously in network monitoring, as the available resources in the network element that can be applied to support the measurement function are too limited to implement sophisticated mechanisms. Finally, understanding and explaining the behavior of the network becomes challenging due to its size and complex structure. Various emerging optimization-based solutions (e.g., compressive sensing) or data-driven solutions (e.g. deep learning) have been proposed for the aforementioned challenges. However, the fidelity and efficiency of existing methods cannot yet meet the current network requirements. The contributions made in this thesis significantly advance the state of the art in the domain of network measurement and monitoring techniques. Overall, we leverage cutting-edge machine learning technology, deep generative modeling, throughout the entire thesis. First, we design and realize APPSHOT , an efficient city-scale network traffic sharing with a conditional generative model, which only requires open-source contextual data during inference (e.g., land use information and population distribution). Second, we develop an efficient drive testing system — GENDT, based on generative model, which combines graph neural networks, conditional generation, and quantified model uncertainty to enhance the efficiency of mobile drive testing. Third, we design and implement DISTILGAN, a high-fidelity, efficient, versatile, and real-time network telemetry system with latent GANs and spectral-temporal networks. Finally, we propose SPOTLIGHT , an accurate, explainable, and efficient anomaly detection system of the Open RAN (Radio Access Network) system. The lessons learned through this research are summarized, and interesting topics are discussed for future work in this domain. All proposed solutions have been evaluated with real-world datasets and applied to support different applications in real systems

    Applications of Deep Learning Models in Financial Forecasting

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    In financial markets, deep learning techniques sparked a revolution, reshaping conventional approaches and amplifying predictive capabilities. This thesis explored the applications of deep learning models to unravel insights and methodologies aimed at advancing financial forecasting. The crux of the research problem lies in the applications of predictive models within financial domains, characterised by high volatility and uncertainty. This thesis investigated the application of advanced deep-learning methodologies in the context of financial forecasting, addressing the challenges posed by the dynamic nature of financial markets. These challenges were tackled by exploring a range of techniques, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs), long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), autoencoders (AEs), and variational autoencoders (VAEs), along with approaches such as encoding financial time series into images. Through analysis, methodologies such as transfer learning, convolutional neural networks, long short-term memory networks, generative modelling, and image encoding of time series data were examined. These methodologies collectively offered a comprehensive toolkit for extracting meaningful insights from financial data. The present work investigated the practicality of a deep learning CNN-LSTM model within the Directional Change framework to predict significant DC events—a task crucial for timely decisionmaking in financial markets. Furthermore, the potential of autoencoders and variational autoencoders to enhance financial forecasting accuracy and remove noise from financial time series data was explored. Leveraging their capacity within financial time series, these models offered promising avenues for improved data representation and subsequent forecasting. To further contribute to financial prediction capabilities, a deep multi-model was developed that harnessed the power of pre-trained computer vision models. This innovative approach aimed to predict the VVIX, utilising the cross-disciplinary synergy between computer vision and financial forecasting. By integrating knowledge from these domains, novel insights into the prediction of market volatility were provided

    An Optimal House Price Prediction Algorithm: XGBoost

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    An accurate prediction of house prices is a fundamental requirement for various sectors, including real estate and mortgage lending. It is widely recognized that a property’s value is not solely determined by its physical attributes but is significantly influenced by its surrounding neighborhood. Meeting the diverse housing needs of individuals while balancing budget constraints is a primary concern for real estate developers. To this end, we addressed the house price prediction problem as a regression task and thus employed various machine learning (ML) techniques capable of expressing the significance of independent variables. We made use of the housing dataset of Ames City in Iowa, USA to compare XGBoost, support vector regressor, random forest regressor, multilayer perceptron, and multiple linear regression algorithms for house price prediction. Afterwards, we identified the key factors that influence housing costs. Our results show that XGBoost is the best performing model for house price prediction. Our findings present valuable insights and tools for stakeholders, facilitating more accurate property price estimates and, in turn, enabling more informed decision making to meet the housing needs of diverse populations while considering budget constraints

    On the Generation of Realistic and Robust Counterfactual Explanations for Algorithmic Recourse

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    This recent widespread deployment of machine learning algorithms presents many new challenges. Machine learning algorithms are usually opaque and can be particularly difficult to interpret. When humans are involved, algorithmic and automated decisions can negatively impact people’s lives. Therefore, end users would like to be insured against potential harm. One popular way to achieve this is to provide end users access to algorithmic recourse, which gives end users negatively affected by algorithmic decisions the opportunity to reverse unfavorable decisions, e.g., from a loan denial to a loan acceptance. In this thesis, we design recourse algorithms to meet various end user needs. First, we propose methods for the generation of realistic recourses. We use generative models to suggest recourses likely to occur under the data distribution. To this end, we shift the recourse action from the input space to the generative model’s latent space, allowing to generate counterfactuals that lie in regions with data support. Second, we observe that small changes applied to the recourses prescribed to end users likely invalidate the suggested recourse after being nosily implemented in practice. Motivated by this observation, we design methods for the generation of robust recourses and for assessing the robustness of recourse algorithms to data deletion requests. Third, the lack of a commonly used code-base for counterfactual explanation and algorithmic recourse algorithms and the vast array of evaluation measures in literature make it difficult to compare the per formance of different algorithms. To solve this problem, we provide an open source benchmarking library that streamlines the evaluation process and can be used for benchmarking, rapidly developing new methods, and setting up new experiments. In summary, our work contributes to a more reliable interaction of end users and machine learned models by covering fundamental aspects of the recourse process and suggests new solutions towards generating realistic and robust counterfactual explanations for algorithmic recourse

    Improving Cross-Lingual Transfer Learning for Event Detection

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    The widespread adoption of applications powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI) backbones has unquestionably changed the way we interact with the world around us. Applications such as automated personal assistants, automatic question answering, and machine-based translation systems have become mainstays of modern culture thanks to the recent considerable advances in Natural Language Processing (NLP) research. Nonetheless, with over 7000 spoken languages in the world, there still remain a considerable number of marginalized communities that are unable to benefit from these technological advancements largely due to the language they speak. Cross-Lingual Learning (CLL) looks to address this issue by transferring the knowledge acquired from a popular, high-resource source language (e.g., English, Chinese, or Spanish) to a less favored, lower-resourced target language (e.g., Urdu or Swahili). This dissertation leverages the Event Detection (ED) sub-task of Information Extraction (IE) as a testbed and presents three novel approaches that improve cross-lingual transfer learning from distinct perspectives: (1) direct knowledge transfer, (2) hybrid knowledge transfer, and (3) few-shot learning

    Robustness, Heterogeneity and Structure Capturing for Graph Representation Learning and its Application

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    Graph neural networks (GNNs) are potent methods for graph representation learn- ing (GRL), which extract knowledge from complicated (graph) structured data in various real-world scenarios. However, GRL still faces many challenges. Firstly GNN-based node classification may deteriorate substantially by overlooking the pos- sibility of noisy data in graph structures, as models wrongly process the relation among nodes in the input graphs as the ground truth. Secondly, nodes and edges have different types in the real-world and it is essential to capture this heterogeneity in graph representation learning. Next, relations among nodes are not restricted to pairwise relations and it is necessary to capture the complex relations accordingly. Finally, the absence of structural encodings, such as positional information, deterio- rates the performance of GNNs. This thesis proposes novel methods to address the aforementioned problems: 1. Bayesian Graph Attention Network (BGAT): Developed for situations with scarce data, this method addresses the influence of spurious edges. Incor- porating Bayesian principles into the graph attention mechanism enhances robustness, leading to competitive performance against benchmarks (Chapter 3). 2. Neighbour Contrastive Heterogeneous Graph Attention Network (NC-HGAT): By enhancing a cutting-edge self-supervised heterogeneous graph neural net- work model (HGAT) with neighbour contrastive learning, this method ad- dresses heterogeneity and uncertainty simultaneously. Extra attention to edge relations in heterogeneous graphs also aids in subsequent classification tasks (Chapter 4). 3. A novel ensemble learning framework is introduced for predicting stock price movements. It adeptly captures both group-level and pairwise relations, lead- ing to notable advancements over the existing state-of-the-art. The integration of hypergraph and graph models, coupled with the utilisation of auxiliary data via GNNs before recurrent neural network (RNN), provides a deeper under- standing of long-term dependencies between similar entities in multivariate time series analysis (Chapter 5). 4. A novel framework for graph structure learning is introduced, segmenting graphs into distinct patches. By harnessing the capabilities of transformers and integrating other position encoding techniques, this approach robustly capture intricate structural information within a graph. This results in a more comprehensive understanding of its underlying patterns (Chapter 6)

    Online semi-supervised learning in non-stationary environments

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    Existing Data Stream Mining (DSM) algorithms assume the availability of labelled and balanced data, immediately or after some delay, to extract worthwhile knowledge from the continuous and rapid data streams. However, in many real-world applications such as Robotics, Weather Monitoring, Fraud Detection Systems, Cyber Security, and Computer Network Traffic Flow, an enormous amount of high-speed data is generated by Internet of Things sensors and real-time data on the Internet. Manual labelling of these data streams is not practical due to time consumption and the need for domain expertise. Another challenge is learning under Non-Stationary Environments (NSEs), which occurs due to changes in the data distributions in a set of input variables and/or class labels. The problem of Extreme Verification Latency (EVL) under NSEs is referred to as Initially Labelled Non-Stationary Environment (ILNSE). This is a challenging task because the learning algorithms have no access to the true class labels directly when the concept evolves. Several approaches exist that deal with NSE and EVL in isolation. However, few algorithms address both issues simultaneously. This research directly responds to ILNSE’s challenge in proposing two novel algorithms “Predictor for Streaming Data with Scarce Labels” (PSDSL) and Heterogeneous Dynamic Weighted Majority (HDWM) classifier. PSDSL is an Online Semi-Supervised Learning (OSSL) method for real-time DSM and is closely related to label scarcity issues in online machine learning. The key capabilities of PSDSL include learning from a small amount of labelled data in an incremental or online manner and being available to predict at any time. To achieve this, PSDSL utilises both labelled and unlabelled data to train the prediction models, meaning it continuously learns from incoming data and updates the model as new labelled or unlabelled data becomes available over time. Furthermore, it can predict under NSE conditions under the scarcity of class labels. PSDSL is built on top of the HDWM classifier, which preserves the diversity of the classifiers. PSDSL and HDWM can intelligently switch and adapt to the conditions. The PSDSL adapts to learning states between self-learning, micro-clustering and CGC, whichever approach is beneficial, based on the characteristics of the data stream. HDWM makes use of “seed” learners of different types in an ensemble to maintain its diversity. The ensembles are simply the combination of predictive models grouped to improve the predictive performance of a single classifier. PSDSL is empirically evaluated against COMPOSE, LEVELIW, SCARGC and MClassification on benchmarks, NSE datasets as well as Massive Online Analysis (MOA) data streams and real-world datasets. The results showed that PSDSL performed significantly better than existing approaches on most real-time data streams including randomised data instances. PSDSL performed significantly better than ‘Static’ i.e. the classifier is not updated after it is trained with the first examples in the data streams. When applied to MOA-generated data streams, PSDSL ranked highest (1.5) and thus performed significantly better than SCARGC, while SCARGC performed the same as the Static. PSDSL achieved better average prediction accuracies in a short time than SCARGC. The HDWM algorithm is evaluated on artificial and real-world data streams against existing well-known approaches such as the heterogeneous WMA and the homogeneous Dynamic DWM algorithm. The results showed that HDWM performed significantly better than WMA and DWM. Also, when recurring concept drifts were present, the predictive performance of HDWM showed an improvement over DWM. In both drift and real-world streams, significance tests and post hoc comparisons found significant differences between algorithms, HDWM performed significantly better than DWM and WMA when applied to MOA data streams and 4 real-world datasets Electric, Spam, Sensor and Forest cover. The seeding mechanism and dynamic inclusion of new base learners in the HDWM algorithms benefit from the use of both forgetting and retaining the models. The algorithm also provides the independence of selecting the optimal base classifier in its ensemble depending on the problem. A new approach, Envelope-Clustering is introduced to resolve the cluster overlap conflicts during the cluster labelling process. In this process, PSDSL transforms the centroids’ information of micro-clusters into micro-instances and generates new clusters called Envelopes. The nearest envelope clusters assist the conflicted micro-clusters and successfully guide the cluster labelling process after the concept drifts in the absence of true class labels. PSDSL has been evaluated on real-world problem ‘keystroke dynamics’, and the results show that PSDSL achieved higher prediction accuracy (85.3%) and SCARGC (81.6%), while the Static (49.0%) significantly degrades the performance due to changes in the users typing pattern. Furthermore, the predictive accuracies of SCARGC are found highly fluctuated between (41.1% to 81.6%) based on different values of parameter ‘k’ (number of clusters), while PSDSL automatically determine the best values for this parameter

    Multidisciplinary perspectives on Artificial Intelligence and the law

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    This open access book presents an interdisciplinary, multi-authored, edited collection of chapters on Artificial Intelligence (‘AI’) and the Law. AI technology has come to play a central role in the modern data economy. Through a combination of increased computing power, the growing availability of data and the advancement of algorithms, AI has now become an umbrella term for some of the most transformational technological breakthroughs of this age. The importance of AI stems from both the opportunities that it offers and the challenges that it entails. While AI applications hold the promise of economic growth and efficiency gains, they also create significant risks and uncertainty. The potential and perils of AI have thus come to dominate modern discussions of technology and ethics – and although AI was initially allowed to largely develop without guidelines or rules, few would deny that the law is set to play a fundamental role in shaping the future of AI. As the debate over AI is far from over, the need for rigorous analysis has never been greater. This book thus brings together contributors from different fields and backgrounds to explore how the law might provide answers to some of the most pressing questions raised by AI. An outcome of the Católica Research Centre for the Future of Law and its interdisciplinary working group on Law and Artificial Intelligence, it includes contributions by leading scholars in the fields of technology, ethics and the law.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    Hierarchical time series forecasting in emergency medical services

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    Accurate forecasts of ambulance demand are crucial inputs when planning and deploying staff and fleet. Such demand forecasts are required at national, regional, and sub-regional levels, and must take account of the nature of incidents and their priorities. These forecasts are often generated independently by different teams within the organization. As a result, forecasts at different levels may be inconsistent, resulting in conflicting decisions and a lack of coherent coordination in the service. To address this issue, we exploit the hierarchical and grouped structure of the demand time series and apply forecast reconciliation methods to generate both point and probabilistic forecasts that are coherent and use all the available data at all levels of disaggregation. The methods are applied to daily incident data from an ambulance service in Great Britain, from October 2015 to July 2019, disaggregated by nature of incident, priority, managing health board, and control area. We use an ensemble of forecasting models and show that the resulting forecasts are better than any individual forecasting model. We validate the forecasting approach using time series cross validation

    Towards Neuromorphic Gradient Descent: Exact Gradients and Low-Variance Online Estimates for Spiking Neural Networks

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    Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are biologically-plausible models that can run on low-powered non-Von Neumann neuromorphic hardware, positioning them as promising alternatives to conventional Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) for energy-efficient edge computing and robotics. Over the past few years, the Gradient Descent (GD) and Error Backpropagation (BP) algorithms used in DNNs have inspired various training methods for SNNs. However, the non-local and the reverse nature of BP, combined with the inherent non-differentiability of spikes, represent fundamental obstacles to computing gradients with SNNs directly on neuromorphic hardware. Therefore, novel approaches are required to overcome the limitations of GD and BP and enable online gradient computation on neuromorphic hardware. In this thesis, I address the limitations of GD and BP with SNNs by proposing three algorithms. First, I extend a recent method that computes exact gradients with temporally-coded SNNs by relaxing the firing constraint of temporal coding and allowing multiple spikes per neuron. My proposed method generalizes the computation of exact gradients with SNNs and enhances the tradeoffs between performance and various other aspects of spiking neurons. Next, I introduce a novel alternative to BP that computes low-variance gradient estimates in a local and online manner. Compared to other alternatives to BP, the proposed method demonstrates an improved convergence rate and increased performance with DNNs. Finally, I combine these two methods and propose an algorithm that estimates gradients with SNNs in a manner that is compatible with the constraints of neuromorphic hardware. My empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting algorithm in training SNNs without performing BP
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