Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Social Attention: Modeling Attention in Human Crowds

Robots that navigate through human crowds need to be able to plan safe, efficient, and human predictable trajectories. This is a particularly challenging problem as it requires the robot to predict future human trajectories within a crowd where everyone implicitly cooperates with each other to avoid collisions. Previous approaches to human trajectory prediction have modeled the interactions between humans as a function of proximity. However, that is not necessarily true as some people in our immediate vicinity moving in the same direction might not be as important as other people that are further away, but that might collide with us in the future. In this work, we propose Social Attention, a novel trajectory prediction model that captures the relative importance of each person when navigating in the crowd, irrespective of their proximity. We demonstrate the performance of our method against a state-of-the-art approach on two publicly available crowd datasets and analyze the trained attention model to gain a better understanding of which surrounding agents humans attend to, when navigating in a crowd

A Data-driven Model for Interaction-aware Pedestrian Motion Prediction in Object Cluttered Environments

This paper reports on a data-driven, interaction-aware motion prediction approach for pedestrians in environments cluttered with static obstacles. When navigating in such workspaces shared with humans, robots need accurate motion predictions of the surrounding pedestrians. Human navigation behavior is mostly influenced by their surrounding pedestrians and by the static obstacles in their vicinity. In this paper we introduce a new model based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which is able to learn human motion behavior from demonstrated data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach using LSTMs, that incorporates both static obstacles and surrounding pedestrians for trajectory forecasting. As part of the model, we introduce a new way of encoding surrounding pedestrians based on a 1d-grid in polar angle space. We evaluate the benefit of interaction-aware motion prediction and the added value of incorporating static obstacles on both simulation and real-world datasets by comparing with state-of-the-art approaches. The results show, that our new approach outperforms the other approaches while being very computationally efficient and that taking into account static obstacles for motion predictions significantly improves the prediction accuracy, especially in cluttered environments.Comment: 8 pages, accepted for publication at the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA) 201

A Data-driven Model for Interaction-aware Pedestrian Motion Prediction in Object Cluttered Environments

This paper reports on a data-driven, interaction-aware motion prediction approach for pedestrians in environments cluttered with static obstacles. When navigating in such workspaces shared with humans, robots need accurate motion predictions of the surrounding pedestrians. Human navigation behavior is mostly influenced by their surrounding pedestrians and by the static obstacles in their vicinity. In this paper we introduce a new model based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which is able to learn human motion behavior from demonstrated data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach using LSTMs, that incorporates both static obstacles and surrounding pedestrians for trajectory forecasting. As part of the model, we introduce a new way of encoding surrounding pedestrians based on a 1d-grid in polar angle space. We evaluate the benefit of interaction-aware motion prediction and the added value of incorporating static obstacles on both simulation and real-world datasets by comparing with state-of-the-art approaches. The results show, that our new approach outperforms the other approaches while being very computationally efficient and that taking into account static obstacles for motion predictions significantly improves the prediction accuracy, especially in cluttered environments.Comment: 8 pages, accepted for publication at the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA) 201

Pedestrian Flow Simulation Validation and Verification Techniques

For the verification and validation of microscopic simulation models of pedestrian flow, we have performed experiments for different kind of facilities and sites where most conflicts and congestion happens e.g. corridors, narrow passages, and crosswalks. The validity of the model should compare the experimental conditions and simulation results with video recording carried out in the same condition like in real life e.g. pedestrian flux and density distributions. The strategy in this technique is to achieve a certain amount of accuracy required in the simulation model. This method is good at detecting the critical points in the pedestrians walking areas. For the calibration of suitable models we use the results obtained from analyzing the video recordings in Hajj 2009 and these results can be used to check the design sections of pedestrian facilities and exits. As practical examples, we present the simulation of pilgrim streams on the Jamarat bridge. The objectives of this study are twofold: first, to show through verification and validation that simulation tools can be used to reproduce realistic scenarios, and second, gather data for accurate predictions for designers and decision makers.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figure

Transformer Networks for Trajectory Forecasting

Most recent successes on forecasting the people motion are based on LSTM models and all most recent progress has been achieved by modelling the social interaction among people and the people interaction with the scene. We question the use of the LSTM models and propose the novel use of Transformer Networks for trajectory forecasting. This is a fundamental switch from the sequential step-by-step processing of LSTMs to the only-attention-based memory mechanisms of Transformers. In particular, we consider both the original Transformer Network (TF) and the larger Bidirectional Transformer (BERT), state-of-the-art on all natural language processing tasks. Our proposed Transformers predict the trajectories of the individual people in the scene. These are "simple" model because each person is modelled separately without any complex human-human nor scene interaction terms. In particular, the TF model without bells and whistles yields the best score on the largest and most challenging trajectory forecasting benchmark of TrajNet. Additionally, its extension which predicts multiple plausible future trajectories performs on par with more engineered techniques on the 5 datasets of ETH + UCY. Finally, we show that Transformers may deal with missing observations, as it may be the case with real sensor data. Code is available at https://github.com/FGiuliari/Trajectory-Transformer.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figure

Modeling Cooperative Navigation in Dense Human Crowds

For robots to be a part of our daily life, they need to be able to navigate among crowds not only safely but also in a socially compliant fashion. This is a challenging problem because humans tend to navigate by implicitly cooperating with one another to avoid collisions, while heading toward their respective destinations. Previous approaches have used hand-crafted functions based on proximity to model human-human and human-robot interactions. However, these approaches can only model simple interactions and fail to generalize for complex crowded settings. In this paper, we develop an approach that models the joint distribution over future trajectories of all interacting agents in the crowd, through a local interaction model that we train using real human trajectory data. The interaction model infers the velocity of each agent based on the spatial orientation of other agents in his vicinity. During prediction, our approach infers the goal of the agent from its past trajectory and uses the learned model to predict its future trajectory. We demonstrate the performance of our method against a state-of-the-art approach on a public dataset and show that our model outperforms when predicting future trajectories for longer horizons.Comment: Accepted at ICRA 201

Analysis-by-synthesis: Pedestrian tracking with crowd simulation models in a multi-camera video network

For tracking systems consisting of multiple cameras with overlapping field-of-views, homography-based approaches are widely adopted to significantly reduce occlusions among pedestrians by sharing information among multiple views. However, in these approaches, the usage of information under real-world coordinates is only at a preliminary level. Therefore, in this paper, a multi-camera tracking system with integrated crowd simulation is proposed in order to explore the possibility to make homography information more helpful. Two crowd simulators with different simulation strategies are used to investigate the influence of the simulation strategy on the final tracking performance. The performance is evaluated by multiple object tracking precision and accuracy (MOTP and MOTA) metrics, for all the camera views and the results obtained under real-world coordinates. The experimental results demonstrate that crowd simulators boost the tracking performance significantly, especially for crowded scenes with higher density. In addition, a more realistic simulation strategy helps to further improve the overall tracking result