Analysis of incidence and prognostic factors for ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence and its impact on disease-specific survival of women with node-negative breast cancer: a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION: This study had three aims: to establish the incidence of ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR) in a community treatment setting, to evaluate known factors – in particular younger age (< 40 years) – predictive for local recurrence, and to assess the impact of local recurrence on disease-specific survival (DSS). METHODS: A consecutive series of 1,540 women with node-negative breast cancer, diagnosed between the ages of 18–75 years, were prospectively accrued between September 1987 and September 1999. All had undergone a resection of the primary breast cancer with clear margins, an axillary lymph node dissection with a minimum of four sampled nodes, and breast-conserving surgery (of any type). RESULTS: During the study follow-up period, 98 (6.4%) IBTRs and 117 (7.6%) deaths from or with breast cancer were observed. The median time to IBTR was 3.1 years and to death from or with disease was 4.3 years. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression model for IBTR with adjuvant therapy factors, independent risk factors included age < 40 years (relative risk (RR) = 1.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.00 – 3.58), presence of intraductal disease (RR = 1.81, 95% CI = 1.15–2.85) and histological grade ('G2' or G3 versus G1: RR = 1.59, 95% CI = 0.87–2.94). In the multivariate Cox PH regression model for DSS with adjuvant therapy factors, independent risk factors included previous IBTR (RR = 2.58, 95% CI = 1.41–4.72), tumor size (1–2 cm versus < 1 cm: RR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.05–3.64, > 2 cm versus < 1 cm: RR = 2.94, 95% CI = 1.56–5.56), progesterone receptor status (negative or equivocal versus positive or unknown: RR = 2.15, 95% CI = 1.36–3.39), lymphatic invasion (RR = 1.78, 95% CI = 1.17–2.72), and histological grade ('G2' or G3 versus G1: RR = 8.59, 95% CI = 2.09–35.36). The effects of competing risks could be ignored. CONCLUSION: The Cox PH analyses confirmed the importance of known risk factors for IBTR and DSS in a community treatment setting. This study also revealed that the early occurrence of an IBTR is associated with a relatively poor five-year survival rate

Prognostic modelling of breast cancer patients: a benchmark of predictive models with external validation

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores – Sistemas Digitais e Percepcionais pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e TecnologiaThere are several clinical prognostic models in the medical field. Prior to clinical use, the outcome models of longitudinal cohort data need to undergo a multi-centre evaluation of their predictive accuracy. This thesis evaluates the possible gain in predictive accuracy in multicentre evaluation of a flexible model with Bayesian regularisation, the (PLANN-ARD), using a reference data set for breast cancer, which comprises 4016 records from patients diagnosed during 1989-93 and reported by the BCCA, Canada, with follow-up of 10 years. The method is compared with the widely used Cox regression model. Both methods were fitted to routinely acquired data from 743 patients diagnosed during 1990-94 at the Christie Hospital, UK, with follow-up of 5 years following surgery. Methodological advances developed to support the external validation of this neural network with clinical data include: imputation of missing data in both the training and validation data sets; and a prognostic index for stratification of patients into risk groups that can be extended to non-linear models. Predictive accuracy was measured empirically with a standard discrimination index, Ctd, and with a calibration measure, using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic. Both Cox regression and the PLANN-ARD model are found to have similar discrimination but the neural network showed marginally better predictive accuracy over the 5-year followup period. In addition, the regularised neural network has the substantial advantage of being suited for making predictions of hazard rates and survival for individual patients. Four different approaches to stratify patients into risk groups are also proposed, each with a different foundation. While it was found that the four methodologies broadly agree, there are important differences between them. Rules sets were extracted and compared for the two stratification methods, the log-rank bootstrap and by direct application of regression trees, and with two rule extraction methodologies, OSRE and CART, respectively. In addition, widely used clinical breast cancer prognostic indexes such as the NPI, TNM and St. Gallen consensus rules, were compared with the proposed prognostic models expressed as regression trees, concluding that the suggested approaches may enhance current practice. Finally, a Web clinical decision support system is proposed for clinical oncologists and for breast cancer patients making prognostic assessments, which is tailored to the particular characteristics of the individual patient. This system comprises three different prognostic modelling methodologies: the NPI, Cox regression modelling and PLANN-ARD. For a given patient, all three models yield a generally consistent but not identical set of prognostic indices that can be analysed together in order to obtain a consensus and so achieve a more robust prognostic assessment of the expected patient outcome

Predicting Ebola infection: A malaria-sensitive triage score for Ebola virus disease.

The non-specific symptoms of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) pose a major problem to triage and isolation efforts at Ebola Treatment Centres (ETCs). Under the current triage protocol, half the patients allocated to high-risk "probable" wards were EVD(-): a misclassification speculated to predispose nosocomial EVD infection. A better understanding of the statistical relevance of individual triage symptoms is essential in resource-poor settings where rapid, laboratory-confirmed diagnostics are often unavailable. This retrospective cohort study analyses the clinical characteristics of 566 patients admitted to the GOAL-Mathaska ETC in Sierra Leone. The diagnostic potential of each characteristic was assessed by multivariate analysis and incorporated into a statistically weighted predictive score, designed to detect EVD as well as discriminate malaria. Of the 566 patients, 28% were EVD(+) and 35% were malaria(+). Malaria was 2-fold more common in EVD(-) patients (p&lt;0.05), and thus an important differential diagnosis. Univariate analyses comparing EVD(+) vs. EVD(-) and EVD(+)/malaria(-) vs. EVD(-)/malaria(+) cohorts revealed 7 characteristics with the highest odds for EVD infection, namely: reported sick-contact, conjunctivitis, diarrhoea, referral-time of 4-9 days, pyrexia, dysphagia and haemorrhage. Oppositely, myalgia was more predictive of EVD(-) or EVD(-)/malaria(+). Including these 8 characteristics in a triage score, we obtained an 89% ability to discriminate EVD(+) from either EVD(-) or EVD(-)/malaria(+). This study proposes a highly predictive and easy-to-use triage tool, which stratifies the risk of EVD infection with 89% discriminative power for both EVD(-) and EVD(-)/malaria(+) differential diagnoses. Improved triage could preserve resources by identifying those in need of more specific differential diagnostics as well as bolster infection prevention/control measures by better compartmentalizing the risk of nosocomial infection

The SAFE-trial:Safe surgery for glioblastoma multiforme: Awake craniotomy versus surgery under general anesthesia. Study. protocol for a multicenter prospective randomized controlled trial

Background: Surgery of GBM nowadays is usually performed under general anesthesia (GA) and resections are often not as aggressive as possible, due to the chance of seriously damaging the patient with a rather low life expectancy. A surgical technique optimizing resection of the tumor in eloquent areas but preventing neurological deficits is necessary to improve survival and quality of life in these patients. Awake craniotomy (AC) with the use of cortical and subcortical stimulation has been widely implemented for low-grade glioma resections (LGG), but not yet for GBM. AC has shown to increase resection percentage and preserve quality of life in LGG and could thus be of important value in GBM surgery. Methods/design: This study is a prospective, multicenter, randomized controlled trial (RCT). Consecutive patients with a glioblastoma in or near eloquent areas (Sawaya grading II/III) will be 1:1 randomized to awake craniotomy or craniotomy under general anesthesia. 246 patients will be included in neurosurgical centers in the Netherlands and Belgium. Primary end-points are: 1) Postoperative neurological morbidity and 2) Proportion of patients with gross-total resections. Secondary end-points are: 1) Health-related quality of life; 2) Progression-free survival (PFS); 3) Overall survival (OS) and 4) Frequency and severity of Serious Adverse Effects in each group. Also, a cost-benefit analysis will be performed. All patients will receive standard adjuvant treatment with concomitant chemoradiotherapy. Discussion: This RCT should demonstrate whether AC is superior to craniotomy under GA on neurological morbidity, extent of resection and survival for glioblastoma resections in or near eloquent areas. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT03861299 Netherlands Trial Register (NTR): NL758

PROPENSITY SCORE METHODS FOR COMPETING RISKS

Non-experimental studies have increasingly been used to examine the safety and effectiveness of medication. Challenges to this method include confounding, which may cause the estimator to be biased. Propensity score (PS), which is the conditional probability of receiving treatment given all confounders, may be used to control for confounding. Analysis of vulnerable populations may involve competing risks, which may occur before the event of interest. Statistical methods that account for competing risks are needed to obtain valid causal estimate. However, little knowledge attention has been given to this topic in the literature. The objective of this research was to investigate the performance of estimators under imple- mentation of various PS methods in competing risk survival analyses for estimating marginal and conditional treatment effects. The competing risk models were a cause-specific hazard model and subdistribution hazard model. According to simulation results, the weighted method produced efficient estimators for marginal treatment effects. However, it leads to an inflated variance when low incidence of event and strong confounder effects. A bootstrapping method can be used to estimate the variance under this scenario. For the conditional treatment effect, PS adjustment in the model performed the best for the null model. Depending on the sample size and the number of confounding variables, the subclassification and matching methods yield best performance under the alternative when treatment effect is non-null. Heterogeneity of treatment effect associated with statin therapy may be present in el- derly who experience myocardial infarction. Examining treatment effect across age groups and the revascularization procedure illustrated the heterogeneity of statin effects. Statins significantly reduce risks of heart failure among younger age groups. The combination of statins with revascularization procedures presents better treatment effects than occurs with statins alone. Application of propensity score methods to competing risks is illustrated in this study, with the analysis of treatment effects providing an improved understanding of the heterogeneity of the effects of statins therapy. The efficiency of implementing propensity score method to competing risks is illustrated in this study. Analyzing the treatment effects by subgroup and medical procedure contributes better results for estimating the heterogeneity treatment effect.Doctor of Public Healt

Optimizing the treatment of locally advanced and recurrent rectal cancer

An important goal in the treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer is to reduce the risk of metastases and increase quality of life. Four chapters of this dissertation describe the results of the RAPIDO trial. This study compares 2 types of treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer. The standard treatment consists of long-term chemoradiotherapy, surgery, and possibly chemotherapy. The experimental treatment consists of short-course radiation followed by chemotherapy and then surgery. The experimental treatment showed a significant improvement in disease-related treatment failure at 3 and 5 years after surgery. This difference was explained by a significant decrease in the number of metastases. However, after 5 years, there are a fraction more patients with local recurrence of disease in the experimental treatment. In addition, this study shows that there is no difference in quality of life after 3 years. However, those in the experimental group do experience tingling in the toes and fingers more often. Furthermore, this dissertation shows that during surgery in case of the primary tumour in 58.3% of cases we gave radiotherapy too often when it was not necessary, and in the case of recurrence of disease in 26.5% of cases we gave it too little.In addition, we have shown that it is safe to provide chemoradiotherapy again to a patient who has local recurrence of disease and has also initially received chemoradiotherapy for their primary tumour

Impact of Community Factors on the Donor Quality Score in Liver Transplantation

An increasing prevalence of metabolic syndrome and obesity has been linked to the rise in transplant indication for cryptogenic cirrhosis and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), creating a growing challenge to public health. NAFLD liver transplant (LT) candidates are listed with low priority, and their waiting mortality is high. The impact of community/geographic factors on donor risk models is unknown. The purpose of this study was to develop a parsimonious donor risk-adjusted model tailored to NAFLD recipients by assessing the impact of donor, recipient, transplant, and external factors on graft survival. The theoretical framework was the social ecological model. Secondary data were collected from 3,165 consecutive recipients from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients and Community Health Scores, a proxy of community health disparities derived from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation\u27s community health rankings. Data were examined using univariate and multivariate analyses. The donor risk-adjusted model was developed using donor-only factors and supplemented with recipient and transplant factors, classifying donors as low, medium, and high risk. NAFLD residents in high-risk counties had increased likelihood of liver graft failure. Findings may be used to allocate high-risk donors to a subset of NAFLD with excellent outcomes, increasing the donor pool and decreasing mortality on the wait list

Feasibility of improving risk stratification in the inherited cardiac conditions

Fatal ventricular arrhythmias can occur in patients with Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy, Brugada Syndrome and rarely in patients with normal cardiac investigations. Despite very different pathogeneses, we hypothesised that a common electrophysiological substrate precipitates these arrhythmias and could be used as a marker for risk stratification. In Chapter 3 of this thesis, we found that fewer than half the cardiac arrest survivors with Brugada Syndrome would have been offered prophylactic defibrillators based on current risk scoring, highlighting the need for better risk stratification. Our group previously used a commercially available 252-electrode vest which constructs ventricular electrograms onto a CT image of the heart to show exercise related differences in high-risk patients. In Chapter 4, we applied this method to Brugada patients, but could not reproduce prior results. Further investigation revealed periodic changes in activation patterns after exercise that could explain this discrepancy. An alternative matrix approach was developed to overcome this problem. Exercise induced conduction heterogeneity differentiated Brugada patients from unaffected controls, but not those surviving cardiac arrest. However, if considered alongside spontaneous type 1 ECG and syncope, inducible conduction heterogeneity markedly improved identification of Brugada cardiac arrest survivors. In Chapter 5 the method was shown to differentiate idiopathic ventricular fibrillation patients from those fully recovered from acute ischaemic cardiac arrest, implying a permanent electrophysiological abnormality. In Chapter 8, we showed prolonged mean local activation times and activation-recovery intervals in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy cardiac arrest survivors compared to those without previous ventricular arrhythmia. These metrics were combined into both logistic regression and support vector machine models to strongly differentiate the groups. We concluded that electrophysiological changes could identify cardiac arrest survivors in various cardiac conditions, but a single factor common pathway was not established. Prospective studies are required to determine if using these parameters could enhance current risk stratification for sudden death.Open Acces