DEA Models Involving Future Performance

Workshop 2015 -Advances in DEA Theory and Applications (December 1-2, 2015)In many practical applications, past results are not sufficient for evaluating a DMU’s performance in highly volatile operating environments, such as those with highly volatile crude oil prices and currency exchange rates. That is, in such environments, a DMU’s whole performance may be seriously distorted if its future performance, which is sensitive to crude oil price volatility and/or currency fluctuations, is ignored in the evaluation process. Hence, this research aims at developing a new system of DEA models that incorporate a DMU’s uncertain future performance, and thus can be applied to fully measure their efficiency.The workshop is supported by JSPS (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), #25282090, titled “Studies in Theory and Applications of DEA for Forecasting Purpose.本研究はJSPS科研費 基盤研究(B) 25282090の助成を受けたものです

Resampling in DEA

総合政策 / Multi Disciplinary policy studiesIn this paper, we propose new resampling models in data envelopment analysis (DEA). Input/output values are subject to change for several reasons, e.g., measurement errors, hysteretic factors, arbitrariness and so on. Furthermore, these variations differ in their input/output items and their decision-making units (DMU). Hence, DEA efficiency scores need to be examined by considering these factors. Resampling based on these variations is necessary for gauging the confidence interval of DEA scores. We propose three resampling models. The first one assumes downside and upside measurement error rates for each input/output, which are common to all DMUs. We resample data following the triangular distribution that the downside and upside errors indicate around the observed data. The second model utilizes historical data, e.g., past-present, for estimating data variations, imposing chronological order weights which are supplied by Lucas series (a variant of Fibonacci series). The last one deals with future prospects. This model aims at forecasting the future efficiency score and its confidence interval for each DMU.http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/facultyinfo/tone_kaoru

The Demand for Cocaine by Young Adults: A Rational Addiction Approach

This paper applies the rational addiction model, which emphasizes the interdependency of past, current, and future consumption of an addictive good, to the demand for cocaine by young adults in the Monitoring the Future Panel. The price of cocaine is added to this survey from the System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence (STRIDE) maintained by the Drug Enforcement Administration of the U.S. Department of Justice. Results suggest that annual participation and frequency of use given participation are negatively related to the price of cocaine. In addition current participation is positively related to past and future participation, and current frequency of use given participation is positively related to past and future frequency of use. The long-run price elasticity of total consumption (participation multiplied by frequency given participation) of -1.18 is substantial. A permanent 10 percent reduction in price due, for example, to the legalization of cocaine would cause the number of cocaine users to grow by slightly more than 8 percent and would increase the frequency of use among users by a little more than 3 percent. Surely, both proponents and opponents of drug legalization should take account of this increase in consumption in debating their respective positions.

SOME GUIDING PRINCIPLES FOR EMPIRICAL PRODUCTION RESEARCH IN AGRICULTURE

Constraints on production economic research are examined in three dimensions: problem focus, methodology, and data availability. Data availability has played a large role in the choice of problem focus and explains some misdirected focus. A proposal is made to address the data availability constraint. The greatest self-imposed constraints are methodological. Production economics has focused on flexible representations of technology at the expense of specificity in preferences. Yet some of the major problems faced by decision makers relate to long-term problems, e.g., the commodity boom and ensuring debt crisis of the 1970s and 1980s where standard short-term profit maximization models are unlikely to capture the essence of decision maker concerns.Production Economics,

The Effects of Cocaine and Heroin Prices on Drug-Related Emergency Department Visits

This paper estimates the empirical relationship between the prices of cocaine and heroin and objective indicators of use. The set of outcomes is drug related hospital emergency department admissions where cocaine and heroin are cited, for 21 large U.S. metropolitan areas. These outcomes are superior to subjective self-reports, and are policy-relevant since they directly measure a large component of the health-care costs associated with heavy or chronic drug usage. Panel data methodology is used to identify the empirical link between drug prices and these indicators. Results indicate that health consequences associated with heavy or chronic drug use are negatively related to drug prices, an instrument of drug control policy. The elasticity of the probability of a cocaine mention with respect to own-price is estimated at -0.27, and the corresponding elasticity for the probability of a heroin mention is -0.15. The probability of any drug related episode, which captures polydrug usage, is also significantly negatively related to both cocaine and heroin prices. Cross-price effects are consistent with a complementary relationship between cocaine and heroin. Models indicate the presence of negative lagged price effects, confirming the strong addictive aspects of both drugs and the cumulative adverse effects of drug use on health.

A Dynamic Characterization of Efficiency

The definition and measurement of dynamic economic performance has been addressed obliquely in the literature with the notions of scope economies and capacity utilization measures, but little work has focused on develop the static theory analogs of efficiency measures into the dynamic context. This paper is an attempt to identify some of the conceptual and methodological issues to be addressed. A model allowing for dynamic production decisions in the face of inefficiency is presented to illustrate some of the issues and the extensions necessary to identify truly dynamic performance measures.

Assessing the carry-over effects of both human capital and organizational forgetting on sustainability performance using dynamic data envelopment analysis

Many studies have documented that human capital, which is a result of professional knowledge accumulation, continuously improves sustainability performance over time. Organizational forgetting is the loss of such professional knowledge, and it results in lower sustainability performance. Thus, human capital and organizational forgetting can be respectively treated as good and bad carry-overs. Both human capital and organizational forgetting may reflect business cycle fluctuations. The data envelopment analysis model has not been employed to examine the impact of either human capital or organizational forgetting on sustainability performance in multi-stages. The aim of this study is to develop a three-stage approach to incorporate the carry-over effects of both human capital and organizational forgetting and the effects of business cycle fluctuations on overall and term sustainability performance using data from Taiwan’s 16 major industrial sectors. The study finds that the carry-over effects of human capital and organizational forgetting lead to accurate estimations of sustainability performance and illustrates that the development of the industrial economy is a critical factor for adjusting human capital. Governments should implement economic stabilization policies and increase investment in education and safe capital to improve human capital accumulation and enhance sustainability performance

Mergers and Acquisitions Between Mutual Banks in Italy :An analysis of the effects on performance and productive efficiency

The paper is aimed at testing the hypothesis that the M&A wave over the past ten years has increased the level of efficiency of co-operative credit banks (CCBs), both in terms of overall performance and productive efficiency. The logical development is hinged on two steps: 1) an explorative analysis which is based on the observation of balance sheet ratios by quantiles, 2) a DEA application for estimating productive efficiency scores. The analysis refers to 94 CCBs which have been involved in M&As over the period 1995-1998 and is carried out on both merged and non-merged banks, either before concentration or in the subsequent years.