Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogenous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments

We propose strategies to estimate and make inference on key features of heterogeneous effects in randomized experiments. These key features include best linear predictors of the effects using machine learning proxies, average effects sorted by impact groups, and average characteristics of most and least impacted units. The approach is valid in high dimensional settings, where the effects are proxied by machine learning methods. We post-process these proxies into the estimates of the key features. Our approach is generic, it can be used in conjunction with penalized methods, deep and shallow neural networks, canonical and new random forests, boosted trees, and ensemble methods. It does not rely on strong assumptions. In particular, we don't require conditions for consistency of the machine learning methods. Estimation and inference relies on repeated data splitting to avoid overfitting and achieve validity. For inference, we take medians of p-values and medians of confidence intervals, resulting from many different data splits, and then adjust their nominal level to guarantee uniform validity. This variational inference method is shown to be uniformly valid and quantifies the uncertainty coming from both parameter estimation and data splitting. We illustrate the use of the approach with two randomized experiments in development on the effects of microcredit and nudges to stimulate immunization demand.Comment: 53 pages, 6 figures, 15 table

A High-Throughput Solver for Marginalized Graph Kernels on GPU

We present the design and optimization of a linear solver on General Purpose GPUs for the efficient and high-throughput evaluation of the marginalized graph kernel between pairs of labeled graphs. The solver implements a preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) method to compute the solution to a generalized Laplacian equation associated with the tensor product of two graphs. To cope with the gap between the instruction throughput and the memory bandwidth of current generation GPUs, our solver forms the tensor product linear system on-the-fly without storing it in memory when performing matrix-vector dot product operations in PCG. Such on-the-fly computation is accomplished by using threads in a warp to cooperatively stream the adjacency and edge label matrices of individual graphs by small square matrix blocks called tiles, which are then staged in registers and the shared memory for later reuse. Warps across a thread block can further share tiles via the shared memory to increase data reuse. We exploit the sparsity of the graphs hierarchically by storing only non-empty tiles using a coordinate format and nonzero elements within each tile using bitmaps. Besides, we propose a new partition-based reordering algorithm for aggregating nonzero elements of the graphs into fewer but denser tiles to improve the efficiency of the sparse format.We carry out extensive theoretical analyses on the graph tensor product primitives for tiles of various density and evaluate their performance on synthetic and real-world datasets. Our solver delivers three to four orders of magnitude speedup over existing CPU-based solvers such as GraKeL and GraphKernels. The capability of the solver enables kernel-based learning tasks at unprecedented scales

Feedback and time are essential for the optimal control of computing systems

The performance, reliability, cost, size and energy usage of computing systems can be improved by one or more orders of magnitude by the systematic use of modern control and optimization methods. Computing systems rely on the use of feedback algorithms to schedule tasks, data and resources, but the models that are used to design these algorithms are validated using open-loop metrics. By using closed-loop metrics instead, such as the gap metric developed in the control community, it should be possible to develop improved scheduling algorithms and computing systems that have not been over-engineered. Furthermore, scheduling problems are most naturally formulated as constraint satisfaction or mathematical optimization problems, but these are seldom implemented using state of the art numerical methods, nor do they explicitly take into account the fact that the scheduling problem itself takes time to solve. This paper makes the case that recent results in real-time model predictive control, where optimization problems are solved in order to control a process that evolves in time, are likely to form the basis of scheduling algorithms of the future. We therefore outline some of the research problems and opportunities that could arise by explicitly considering feedback and time when designing optimal scheduling algorithms for computing systems