Stein Variational Message Passing for Continuous Graphical Models

We propose a novel distributed inference algorithm for continuous graphical models, by extending Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) to leverage the Markov dependency structure of the distribution of interest. Our approach combines SVGD with a set of structured local kernel functions defined on the Markov blanket of each node, which alleviates the curse of high dimensionality and simultaneously yields a distributed algorithm for decentralized inference tasks. We justify our method with theoretical analysis and show that the use of local kernels can be viewed as a new type of localized approximation that matches the target distribution on the conditional distributions of each node over its Markov blanket. Our empirical results show that our method outperforms a variety of baselines including standard MCMC and particle message passing methods

Moment-Based Variational Inference for Markov Jump Processes

We propose moment-based variational inference as a flexible framework for approximate smoothing of latent Markov jump processes. The main ingredient of our approach is to partition the set of all transitions of the latent process into classes. This allows to express the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the approximate and the exact posterior process in terms of a set of moment functions that arise naturally from the chosen partition. To illustrate possible choices of the partition, we consider special classes of jump processes that frequently occur in applications. We then extend the results to parameter inference and demonstrate the method on several examples.Comment: Accepted by the 36th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2019

Variational Particle Approximations

Approximate inference in high-dimensional, discrete probabilistic models is a central problem in computational statistics and machine learning. This paper describes discrete particle variational inference (DPVI), a new approach that combines key strengths of Monte Carlo, variational and search-based techniques. DPVI is based on a novel family of particle-based variational approximations that can be fit using simple, fast, deterministic search techniques. Like Monte Carlo, DPVI can handle multiple modes, and yields exact results in a well-defined limit. Like unstructured mean-field, DPVI is based on optimizing a lower bound on the partition function; when this quantity is not of intrinsic interest, it facilitates convergence assessment and debugging. Like both Monte Carlo and combinatorial search, DPVI can take advantage of factorization, sequential structure, and custom search operators. This paper defines DPVI particle-based approximation family and partition function lower bounds, along with the sequential DPVI and local DPVI algorithm templates for optimizing them. DPVI is illustrated and evaluated via experiments on lattice Markov Random Fields, nonparametric Bayesian mixtures and block-models, and parametric as well as non-parametric hidden Markov models. Results include applications to real-world spike-sorting and relational modeling problems, and show that DPVI can offer appealing time/accuracy trade-offs as compared to multiple alternatives.Comment: First two authors contributed equally to this wor

Deep Variational Reinforcement Learning for POMDPs

Many real-world sequential decision making problems are partially observable by nature, and the environment model is typically unknown. Consequently, there is great need for reinforcement learning methods that can tackle such problems given only a stream of incomplete and noisy observations. In this paper, we propose deep variational reinforcement learning (DVRL), which introduces an inductive bias that allows an agent to learn a generative model of the environment and perform inference in that model to effectively aggregate the available information. We develop an n-step approximation to the evidence lower bound (ELBO), allowing the model to be trained jointly with the policy. This ensures that the latent state representation is suitable for the control task. In experiments on Mountain Hike and flickering Atari we show that our method outperforms previous approaches relying on recurrent neural networks to encode the past

Adaptive and Calibrated Ensemble Learning with Dependent Tail-free Process

Ensemble learning is a mainstay in modern data science practice. Conventional ensemble algorithms assigns to base models a set of deterministic, constant model weights that (1) do not fully account for variations in base model accuracy across subgroups, nor (2) provide uncertainty estimates for the ensemble prediction, which could result in mis-calibrated (i.e. precise but biased) predictions that could in turn negatively impact the algorithm performance in real-word applications. In this work, we present an adaptive, probabilistic approach to ensemble learning using dependent tail-free process as ensemble weight prior. Given input feature $\mathbf{x}$, our method optimally combines base models based on their predictive accuracy in the feature space $\mathbf{x} \in \mathcal{X}$, and provides interpretable uncertainty estimates both in model selection and in ensemble prediction. To encourage scalable and calibrated inference, we derive a structured variational inference algorithm that jointly minimize KL objective and the model's calibration score (i.e. Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS)). We illustrate the utility of our method on both a synthetic nonlinear function regression task, and on the real-world application of spatio-temporal integration of particle pollution prediction models in New England.Comment: Work-in-progress manuscript appeared at Bayesian Nonparametrics Workshop, Neural Information Processing Systems 201

Stein Variational Policy Gradient

Policy gradient methods have been successfully applied to many complex reinforcement learning problems. However, policy gradient methods suffer from high variance, slow convergence, and inefficient exploration. In this work, we introduce a maximum entropy policy optimization framework which explicitly encourages parameter exploration, and show that this framework can be reduced to a Bayesian inference problem. We then propose a novel Stein variational policy gradient method (SVPG) which combines existing policy gradient methods and a repulsive functional to generate a set of diverse but well-behaved policies. SVPG is robust to initialization and can easily be implemented in a parallel manner. On continuous control problems, we find that implementing SVPG on top of REINFORCE and advantage actor-critic algorithms improves both average return and data efficiency

Approximate inference with Wasserstein gradient flows

We present a novel approximate inference method for diffusion processes, based on the Wasserstein gradient flow formulation of the diffusion. In this formulation, the time-dependent density of the diffusion is derived as the limit of implicit Euler steps that follow the gradients of a particular free energy functional. Existing methods for computing Wasserstein gradient flows rely on discretization of the domain of the diffusion, prohibiting their application to domains in more than several dimensions. We propose instead a discretization-free inference method that computes the Wasserstein gradient flow directly in a space of continuous functions. We characterize approximation properties of the proposed method and evaluate it on a nonlinear filtering task, finding performance comparable to the state-of-the-art for filtering diffusions

Stein Variational Adaptive Importance Sampling

We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling algorithm which incorporates Stein variational gradient decent algorithm (SVGD) with importance sampling (IS). Our algorithm leverages the nonparametric transforms in SVGD to iteratively decrease the KL divergence between our importance proposal and the target distribution. The advantages of this algorithm are twofold: first, our algorithm turns SVGD into a standard IS algorithm, allowing us to use standard diagnostic and analytic tools of IS to evaluate and interpret the results; second, we do not restrict the choice of our importance proposal to predefined distribution families like traditional (adaptive) IS methods. Empirical experiments demonstrate that our algorithm performs well on evaluating partition functions of restricted Boltzmann machines and testing likelihood of variational auto-encoders

Efficient transfer learning and online adaptation with latent variable models for continuous control

Traditional model-based RL relies on hand-specified or learned models of transition dynamics of the environment. These methods are sample efficient and facilitate learning in the real world but fail to generalize to subtle variations in the underlying dynamics, e.g., due to differences in mass, friction, or actuators across robotic agents or across time. We propose using variational inference to learn an explicit latent representation of unknown environment properties that accelerates learning and facilitates generalization on novel environments at test time. We use Online Bayesian Inference of these learned latents to rapidly adapt online to changes in environments without retaining large replay buffers of recent data. Combined with a neural network ensemble that models dynamics and captures uncertainty over dynamics, our approach demonstrates positive transfer during training and online adaptation on the continuous control task HalfCheetah.Comment: Presented at Continual Learning Workshop, NeurIPS 2018, Montreal, Canada. 5 pages, 4 figure

Learning to Draw Samples with Amortized Stein Variational Gradient Descent

We propose a simple algorithm to train stochastic neural networks to draw samples from given target distributions for probabilistic inference. Our method is based on iteratively adjusting the neural network parameters so that the output changes along a Stein variational gradient direction (Liu & Wang, 2016) that maximally decreases the KL divergence with the target distribution. Our method works for any target distribution specified by their unnormalized density function, and can train any black-box architectures that are differentiable in terms of the parameters we want to adapt. We demonstrate our method with a number of applications, including variational autoencoder (VAE) with expressive encoders to model complex latent space structures, and hyper-parameter learning of MCMC samplers that allows Bayesian inference to adaptively improve itself when seeing more data.Comment: Accepted by UAI 201