3,931 research outputs found
The Master Equation for Large Population Equilibriums
We use a simple N-player stochastic game with idiosyncratic and common noises
to introduce the concept of Master Equation originally proposed by Lions in his
lectures at the Coll\`ege de France. Controlling the limit N tends to the
infinity of the explicit solution of the N-player game, we highlight the
stochastic nature of the limit distributions of the states of the players due
to the fact that the random environment does not average out in the limit, and
we recast the Mean Field Game (MFG) paradigm in a set of coupled Stochastic
Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs). The first one is a forward stochastic
Kolmogorov equation giving the evolution of the conditional distributions of
the states of the players given the common noise. The second is a form of
stochastic Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation providing the solution of the
optimization problem when the flow of conditional distributions is given. Being
highly coupled, the system reads as an infinite dimensional Forward Backward
Stochastic Differential Equation (FBSDE). Uniqueness of a solution and its
Markov property lead to the representation of the solution of the backward
equation (i.e. the value function of the stochastic HJB equation) as a
deterministic function of the solution of the forward Kolmogorov equation,
function which is usually called the decoupling field of the FBSDE. The
(infinite dimensional) PDE satisfied by this decoupling field is identified
with the \textit{master equation}. We also show that this equation can be
derived for other large populations equilibriums like those given by the
optimal control of McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations. The paper
is written more in the style of a review than a technical paper, and we spend
more time and energy motivating and explaining the probabilistic interpretation
of the Master Equation, than identifying the most general set of assumptions
under which our claims are true
Multiobjective strategies for New Product Development in the pharmaceutical industry
New Product Development (NPD) constitutes a challenging problem in the pharmaceutical industry, due to the characteristics of the development pipeline. Formally, the NPD problem can be stated as follows: select a set of R&D projects from a pool of candidate projects in order to satisfy several criteria (economic profitability, time to market) while coping with the uncertain nature of the projects. More precisely, the recurrent key issues are to determine the projects to develop once target molecules have been identified, their order and the level of resources to assign. In this context, the proposed approach combines discrete event stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo approach) with multiobjective genetic algorithms (NSGAII type, Non-Sorted Genetic Algorithm II) to optimize the highly combinatorial portfolio management problem. In that context, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are particularly attractive for treating this kind of problem, due to their ability to directly lead to the so-called Pareto front and to account for the combinatorial aspect. This work is illustrated with a study case involving nine interdependent new product candidates targeting three diseases. An analysis is performed for this test bench on the different pairs of criteria both for the bi- and tricriteria optimization: large portfolios cause resource queues and delays time to launch and are eliminated by the bi- and tricriteria optimization strategy. The optimization strategy is thus interesting to detect the sequence candidates. Time is an important criterion to consider simultaneously with NPV and risk criteria. The order in which drugs are released in the pipeline is of great importance as with scheduling problems
Multiobjective strategies for New Product Development in the pharmaceutical industry
New Product Development (NPD) constitutes a challenging problem in the pharmaceutical industry, due to the characteristics of the development pipeline. Formally, the NPD problem can be stated as follows: select a set of R&D projects from a pool of candidate projects in order to satisfy several criteria (economic profitability, time to market) while coping with the uncertain nature of the projects. More precisely, the recurrent key issues are to determine the projects to develop once target molecules have been identified, their order and the level of resources to assign. In this context, the proposed approach combines discrete event stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo approach) with multiobjective genetic algorithms (NSGAII type, Non-Sorted Genetic Algorithm II) to optimize the highly combinatorial portfolio management problem. In that context, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are particularly attractive for treating this kind of problem, due to their ability to directly lead to the so-called Pareto front and to account for the combinatorial aspect. This work is illustrated with a study case involving nine interdependent new product candidates targeting three diseases. An analysis is performed for this test bench on the different pairs of criteria both for the bi- and tricriteria optimization: large portfolios cause resource queues and delays time to launch and are eliminated by the bi- and tricriteria optimization strategy. The optimization strategy is thus interesting to detect the sequence candidates. Time is an important criterion to consider simultaneously with NPV and risk criteria. The order in which drugs are released in the pipeline is of great importance as with scheduling problems
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