Automated Experiment Design for Data-Efficient Verification of Parametric Markov Decision Processes

We present a new method for statistical verification of quantitative properties over a partially unknown system with actions, utilising a parameterised model (in this work, a parametric Markov decision process) and data collected from experiments performed on the underlying system. We obtain the confidence that the underlying system satisfies a given property, and show that the method uses data efficiently and thus is robust to the amount of data available. These characteristics are achieved by firstly exploiting parameter synthesis to establish a feasible set of parameters for which the underlying system will satisfy the property; secondly, by actively synthesising experiments to increase amount of information in the collected data that is relevant to the property; and finally propagating this information over the model parameters, obtaining a confidence that reflects our belief whether or not the system parameters lie in the feasible set, thereby solving the verification problem.Comment: QEST 2017, 18 pages, 7 figure

Big Data Analytics for QoS Prediction Through Probabilistic Model Checking

As competitiveness increases, being able to guaranting QoS of delivered services is key for business success. It is thus of paramount importance the ability to continuously monitor the workflow providing a service and to timely recognize breaches in the agreed QoS level. The ideal condition would be the possibility to anticipate, thus predict, a breach and operate to avoid it, or at least to mitigate its effects. In this paper we propose a model checking based approach to predict QoS of a formally described process. The continous model checking is enabled by the usage of a parametrized model of the monitored system, where the actual value of parameters is continuously evaluated and updated by means of big data tools. The paper also describes a prototype implementation of the approach and shows its usage in a case study.Comment: EDCC-2014, BIG4CIP-2014, Big Data Analytics, QoS Prediction, Model Checking, SLA compliance monitorin

Parameter-Independent Strategies for pMDPs via POMDPs

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a popular class of models suitable for solving control decision problems in probabilistic reactive systems. We consider parametric MDPs (pMDPs) that include parameters in some of the transition probabilities to account for stochastic uncertainties of the environment such as noise or input disturbances. We study pMDPs with reachability objectives where the parameter values are unknown and impossible to measure directly during execution, but there is a probability distribution known over the parameter values. We study for the first time computing parameter-independent strategies that are expectation optimal, i.e., optimize the expected reachability probability under the probability distribution over the parameters. We present an encoding of our problem to partially observable MDPs (POMDPs), i.e., a reduction of our problem to computing optimal strategies in POMDPs. We evaluate our method experimentally on several benchmarks: a motivating (repeated) learner model; a series of benchmarks of varying configurations of a robot moving on a grid; and a consensus protocol.Comment: Extended version of a QEST 2018 pape