27,962 research outputs found
Non-parametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks
Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian non-parametrics makes
it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model
complexity from the observed data. This paper provides a gentle introduction to
non-parametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using an infinite mixture
model as running example we go through the steps of deriving the model as an
infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by
Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model's fit and predictive
performance. We explain how advanced non-parametric models for complex networks
can be derived and point out relevant literature
Bayesian Network Structure Learning with Permutation Tests
In literature there are several studies on the performance of Bayesian
network structure learning algorithms. The focus of these studies is almost
always the heuristics the learning algorithms are based on, i.e. the
maximisation algorithms (in score-based algorithms) or the techniques for
learning the dependencies of each variable (in constraint-based algorithms). In
this paper we investigate how the use of permutation tests instead of
parametric ones affects the performance of Bayesian network structure learning
from discrete data. Shrinkage tests are also covered to provide a broad
overview of the techniques developed in current literature.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures. Presented at the Conference 'Statistics for
Complex Problems', Padova, June 15, 201
Sensitivity analysis in multilinear probabilistic models
Sensitivity methods for the analysis of the outputs of discrete Bayesian networks have been extensively studied and implemented in different software packages. These methods usually focus on the study of sensitivity functions and on the impact of a parameter change to the Chan–Darwiche distance. Although not fully recognized, the majority of these results rely heavily on the multilinear structure of atomic probabilities in terms of the conditional probability parameters associated with this type of network. By defining a statistical model through the polynomial expression of its associated defining conditional probabilities, we develop here a unifying approach to sensitivity methods applicable to a large suite of models including extensions of Bayesian networks, for instance context-specific ones. Our algebraic approach enables us to prove that for models whose defining polynomial is multilinear both the Chan–Darwiche distance and any divergence in the family of ϕ-divergences are minimized for a certain class of multi-parameter contemporaneous variations when parameters are proportionally covaried
Probabilistic Methodology and Techniques for Artefact Conception and Development
The purpose of this paper is to make a state of the art on probabilistic methodology and techniques for artefact conception and development. It is the 8th deliverable of the BIBA (Bayesian Inspired Brain and Artefacts) project. We first present the incompletness problem as the central difficulty that both living creatures and artefacts have to face: how can they perceive, infer, decide and act efficiently with incomplete and uncertain knowledge?. We then introduce a generic probabilistic formalism called Bayesian Programming. This formalism is then used to review the main probabilistic methodology
and techniques. This review is organized in 3 parts: first the probabilistic models from Bayesian networks to Kalman filters and from sensor fusion to CAD systems, second the inference techniques and finally the learning and model acquisition and comparison methodologies. We conclude with the perspectives of the BIBA project as they rise from this state of the art
Inference, Learning, and Population Size: Projectivity for SRL Models
A subtle difference between propositional and relational data is that in many
relational models, marginal probabilities depend on the population or domain
size. This paper connects the dependence on population size to the classic
notion of projectivity from statistical theory: Projectivity implies that
relational predictions are robust with respect to changes in domain size. We
discuss projectivity for a number of common SRL systems, and identify syntactic
fragments that are guaranteed to yield projective models. The syntactic
conditions are restrictive, which suggests that projectivity is difficult to
achieve in SRL, and care must be taken when working with different domain
sizes
- …