An analysis-forecast system for uncertainty modeling of wind speed: A case study of large-scale wind farms

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd The uncertainty analysis and modeling of wind speed, which has an essential influence on wind power systems, is consistently considered a challenging task. However, most investigations thus far were focused mainly on point forecasts, which in reality cannot facilitate quantitative characterization of the endogenous uncertainty involved. An analysis-forecast system that includes an analysis module and a forecast module and can provide appropriate scenarios for the dispatching and scheduling of a power system is devised in this study; this system superior to those presented in previous studies. In order to qualitatively and quantitatively investigate the uncertainty of wind speed, recurrence analysis techniques are effectively developed for application in the analysis module. Furthermore, in order to quantify the uncertainty accurately, a novel architecture aimed at uncertainty mining is devised for the forecast module, where a non-parametric model optimized by an improved multi-objective water cycle algorithm is considered a predictor for producing intervals for each mode component after feature selection. The results of extensive in-depth experiments show that the devised system is not only superior to the considered benchmark models, but also has good potential practical applications in wind power systems

An acoustic water tank disdrometer

Microwave engineers and geomorphologists require rainfall data with a much greater temporal resolution and a better representation of the numbers of large raindrops than is available from current commercial instruments. This thesis describes the development of an acoustic instrument that determines rain parameters from the sound of raindrops falling into a tank of water. It is known as the acoustic water tank disdrometer (AWTD).There is a direct relationship between the kinetic energy of a raindrop and the acoustic energy generated upon impact. Rain kinetic energy flux density (KE) is estimated from measurements of the sound field in the tank and these have been compared to measurements from a co-sited commercial disdrometer.Furthermore, using an array of hydrophones it is possible to determine the drop size and impact position of each raindrop falling into the tank. Accumulating the information from many impacts allows a drop size distribution (DSD) to be calculated.Eight months of data have been collected in the eastern UK. The two methods of parameter estimation are developed and analysed to show that the acoustic instrument can produce rain KE measurements with a one-second integration times and DSDs with accurate large drop-size tails

HEDCOS: High Efficiency Dynamic Combinatorial Optimization System using Ant Colony Optimization algorithm

This thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University LondonDynamic combinatorial optimization is gaining popularity among industrial practitioners due to the ever-increasing scale of their optimization problems and efforts to solve them to remain competitive. Larger optimization problems are not only more computationally intense to optimize but also have more uncertainty within problem inputs. If some aspects of the problem are subject to dynamic change, it becomes a Dynamic Optimization Problem (DOP). In this thesis, a High Efficiency Dynamic Combinatorial Optimization System is built to solve challenging DOPs with high-quality solutions. The system is created using Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) baseline algorithm with three novel developments. First, introduced an extension method for ACO algorithm called Dynamic Impact. Dynamic Impact is designed to improve convergence and solution quality by solving challenging optimization problems with a non-linear relationship between resource consumption and fitness. This proposed method is tested against the real-world Microchip Manufacturing Plant Production Floor Optimization (MMPPFO) problem and the theoretical benchmark Multidimensional Knapsack Problem (MKP). Second, a non-stochastic dataset generation method was introduced to solve the dynamic optimization research replicability problem. This method uses a static benchmark dataset as a starting point and source of entropy to generate a sequence of dynamic states. Then using this method, 1405 Dynamic Multidimensional Knapsack Problem (DMKP) benchmark datasets were generated and published using famous static MKP benchmark instances as the initial state. Third, introduced a nature-inspired discrete dynamic optimization strategy for ACO by modelling real-world ants’ symbiotic relationship with aphids. ACO with Aphids strategy is designed to solve discrete domain DOPs with event-triggered discrete dynamism. The strategy improved inter-state convergence by allowing better solution recovery after dynamic environment changes. Aphids mediate the information from previous dynamic optimization states to maximize initial results performance and minimize the impact on convergence speed. This strategy is tested for DMKP and against identical ACO implementations using Full-Restart and Pheromone-Sharing strategies, with all other variables isolated. Overall, Dynamic Impact and ACO with Aphids developments are compounding. Using Dynamic Impact on single objective optimization of MMPPFO, the fitness value was improved by 33.2% over the ACO algorithm without Dynamic Impact. MKP benchmark instances of low complexity have been solved to a 100% success rate even when a high degree of solution sparseness is observed, and large complexity instances have shown the average gap improved by 4.26 times. ACO with Aphids has also demonstrated superior performance over the Pheromone-Sharing strategy in every test on average gap reduced by 29.2% for a total compounded dynamic optimization performance improvement of 6.02 times. Also, ACO with Aphids has outperformed the Full-Restart strategy for large datasets groups, and the overall average gap is reduced by 52.5% for a total compounded dynamic optimization performance improvement of 8.99 times

Validations, further developments, and applications of a Lagrangian cloud model

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Proceedings Of The 18th Annual Meeting Of The Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (Aogs 2021)

The 18th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS 2021) was held from 1st to 6th August 2021. This proceedings volume includes selected extended abstracts from a challenging array of presentations at this conference. The AOGS Annual Meeting is a leading venue for professional interaction among researchers and practitioners, covering diverse disciplines of geosciences

Component-wise analysis of metaheuristic algorithms for novel fuzzy-meta classifier

Metaheuristic research has proposed promising results in science, business, and engineering problems. But, mostly high-level analysis is performed on metaheuristic performances. This leaves several critical questions unanswered due to black-box issue that does not reveal why certain metaheuristic algorithms performed better on some problems and not on others. To address the significant gap between theory and practice in metaheuristic research, this study proposed in-depth analysis approach using component-view of metaheuristic algorithms and diversity measurement for determining exploration and exploitation abilities. This research selected three commonly used swarm-based metaheuristic algorithms – Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Artificial Bee Colony (ABC), and Cuckoo Search (CS) – to perform component-wise analysis. As a result, the study able to address premature convergence problem in PSO, poor exploitation in ABC, and imbalanced exploration and exploitation issue in CS. The proposed improved PSO (iPSO), improved ABC (iABC), and improved CS (iCS) outperformed standard algorithms and variants from existing literature, as well as, Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) and Animal Migration Optimization (AMO) on ten numerical optimization problems with varying modalities. The proposed iPSO, iABC, and iCS were then employed on proposed novel Fuzzy-Meta Classifier (FMC) which offered highly reduced model complexity and high accuracy as compared to Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The proposed three-layer FMC produced efficient rules that generated nearly 100% accuracies on ten different classification datasets, with significantly reduced number of trainable parameters and number of nodes in the network architecture, as compared to ANFIS

Objective Identification and Tracking of ZDR Columns in X-band Radar Observations

With the advent of rapidly scanning radar systems, it is imperative to automate the detection of features in radar images. We discuss efforts to objectively identify ZDR columns in X-band radar observations using the enhanced watershed algorithm (EWA; Lakshmanan et al. 2009), a method for identifying features in geospatial images. We discuss our choices for EWA parameters, including thresholds. The EWA is applied to ZDR observations of convective storms obtained during the 2016 and 2017 VORTEX-SE field campaign by the University of Massachusetts X-band, polarimetric, mobile Doppler radar (UMass X-Pol). During several intensive observing periods (IOPs), a variety of convective storm modes, including multicellular clusters, supercells and quasi-linear convective systems, were observed. Use of the EWA facilitates fast and objective tracking of the progression and behavior of each individual ZDR column, which is done using the Lakshmanan and Smith algorithm (LSA; Lakshmanan and Smith 2010)

Comprehensive Taxonomies of Nature- and Bio-inspired Optimization: Inspiration versus Algorithmic Behavior, Critical Analysis and Recommendations

In recent years, a great variety of nature- and bio-inspired algorithms has been reported in the literature. This algorithmic family simulates different biological processes observed in Nature in order to efficiently address complex optimization problems. In the last years the number of bio-inspired optimization approaches in literature has grown considerably, reaching unprecedented levels that dark the future prospects of this field of research. This paper addresses this problem by proposing two comprehensive, principle-based taxonomies that allow researchers to organize existing and future algorithmic developments into well-defined categories, considering two different criteria: the source of inspiration and the behavior of each algorithm. Using these taxonomies we review more than three hundred publications dealing with nature-inspired and bio-inspired algorithms, and proposals falling within each of these categories are examined, leading to a critical summary of design trends and similarities between them, and the identification of the most similar classical algorithm for each reviewed paper. From our analysis we conclude that a poor relationship is often found between the natural inspiration of an algorithm and its behavior. Furthermore, similarities in terms of behavior between different algorithms are greater than what is claimed in their public disclosure: specifically, we show that more than one-third of the reviewed bio-inspired solvers are versions of classical algorithms. Grounded on the conclusions of our critical analysis, we give several recommendations and points of improvement for better methodological practices in this active and growing research field.Comment: 76 pages, 6 figure

MATLAB

This excellent book represents the final part of three-volumes regarding MATLAB-based applications in almost every branch of science. The book consists of 19 excellent, insightful articles and the readers will find the results very useful to their work. In particular, the book consists of three parts, the first one is devoted to mathematical methods in the applied sciences by using MATLAB, the second is devoted to MATLAB applications of general interest and the third one discusses MATLAB for educational purposes. This collection of high quality articles, refers to a large range of professional fields and can be used for science as well as for various educational purposes

Photogrammetric techniques for across-scale soil erosion assessment: Developing methods to integrate multi-temporal high resolution topography data at field plots

Soil erosion is a complex geomorphological process with varying influences of different impacts at different spatio-temporal scales. To date, measurement of soil erosion is predominantly realisable at specific scales, thereby detecting separate processes, e.g. interrill erosion contrary to rill erosion. It is difficult to survey soil surface changes at larger areal coverage such as field scale with high spatial resolution. Either net changes at the system outlet or remaining traces after the erosional event are usually measured. Thus, either quasi-point measurements are extrapolated to the corresponding area without knowing the actual sediment source as well as sediment storage behaviour on the plot or erosion rates are estimated disrupting the area of investigation during the data acquisition impeding multi-temporal assessment. Furthermore, established methods of soil erosion detection and quantification are typically only reliable for large event magnitudes, very labour and time intense, or inflexible. To better observe soil erosion processes at field scale and under natural conditions, the development of a method is necessary, which identifies and quantifies sediment sources and sinks at the hillslope with high spatial resolution and captures single precipitation events as well as allows for longer observation periods. Therefore, an approach is introduced, which measures soil surface changes for multi-spatio-temporal scales without disturbing the area of interest. Recent advances regarding techniques to capture high resolution topography (HiRT) data led to several promising tools for soil erosion measurement with corresponding advantages but also disadvantages. The necessity exists to evaluate those methods because they have been rarely utilised in soil surface studies. On the one hand, there is terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), which comprises high error reliability and retrieves 3D information directly. And on the other hand, there is unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology in combination with structure from motion (SfM) algorithms resulting in UAV photogrammetry, which is very flexible in the field and depicts a beneficial perspective. Evaluation of the TLS feasibility reveals that this method implies a systematic error that is distance-related and temporal constant for the investigated device and can be corrected transferring calibration values retrieved from an estimated lookup table. However, TLS still reaches its application limits quickly due to an unfavourable (almost horizontal) scanning view at the soil surface resulting in a fast decrease of point density and increase of noise with increasing distance from the device. UAV photogrammetry allows for a better perspective (birds-eye view) onto the area of interest, but possesses more complex error behaviour, especially in regard to the systematic error of a DEM dome, which depends on the method for 3D reconstruction from 2D images (i.e. options for additional implementation of observations) and on the image network configuration (i.e. parallel-axes and control point configuration). Therefore, a procedure is developed that enables flexible usage of different cameras and software tools without the need of additional information or specific camera orientations and yet avoiding this dome error. Furthermore, the accuracy potential of UAV photogrammetry describing rough soil surfaces is assessed because so far corresponding data is missing. Both HiRT methods are used for multi-temporal measurement of soil erosion processes resulting in surface changes of low magnitudes, i.e. rill and especially interrill erosion. Thus, a reference with high accuracy and stability is a requirement. A local reference system with sub-cm and at its best 1 mm accuracy is setup and confirmed by control surveys. TLS and UAV photogrammetry data registration with these targets ensures that errors due to referencing are of minimal impact. Analysis of the multi-temporal performance of both HiRT methods affirms TLS to be suitable for the detection of erosion forms of larger magnitudes because of a level of detection (LoD) of 1.5 cm. UAV photogrammetry enables the quantification of even lower magnitude changes (LoD of 1 cm) and a reliable observation of the change of surface roughness, which is important for runoff processes, at field plots due to high spatial resolution (1 cm²). Synergetic data fusion as a subsequent post-processing step is necessary to exploit the advantages of both HiRT methods and potentially further increase the LoD. The unprecedented high level of information entails the need for automatic geomorphic feature extraction due to the large amount of novel content. Therefore, a method is developed, which allows for accurate rill extraction and rill parameter calculation with high resolution enabling new perspectives onto rill erosion that has not been possible before due to labour and area access limits. Erosion volume and cross sections are calculated for each rill revealing a dominant rill deepening. Furthermore, rill shifting in dependence of the rill orientation towards the dominant wind direction is revealed. Two field plots are installed at erosion prone positions in the Mediterranean (1,000 m²) and in the European loess belt (600 m²) to ensure the detection of surface changes, permitting the evaluation of the feasibility, potential and limits of TLS and UAV photogrammetry in soil erosion studies. Observations are made regarding sediment connectivity at the hillslope scale. Both HiRT methods enable the identification of local sediment sources and sinks, but still exhibiting some degree of uncertainty due to the comparable high LoD in regard to laminar accumulation and interrill erosion processes. At both field sites wheel tracks and erosion rills increase hydrological and sedimentological connectivity. However, at the Mediterranean field plot especially dis-connectivity is obvious. At the European loess belt case study a triggering event could be captured, which led to high erosion rates due to high soil moisture contents and yet further erosion increase due to rill amplification after rill incision. Estimated soil erosion rates range between 2.6 tha-1 and 121.5 tha-1 for single precipitation events and illustrate a large variability due to very different site specifications, although both case studies are located in fragile landscapes. However, the susceptibility to soil erosion has different primary causes, i.e. torrential precipitation at the Mediterranean site and high soil erodibility at the European loess belt site. The future capability of the HiRT methods is their potential to be applicable at yet larger scales. Hence, investigations of the importance of gullys for sediment connectivity between hillslopes and channels are possible as well as the possible explanation of different erosion rates observed at hillslope and at catchment scales because local sediment sink and sources can be quantified. In addition, HiRT data can be a great tool for calibrating, validating and enhancing soil erosion models due to the unprecedented level of detail and the flexible multi-spatio-temporal application