Bayesian inference and prediction for the GI/M/1 queueing system

This article undertake Bayesian inference and prediction for GI/M/1 queueing systems. A semiparametric model based on mixtures of Erlang distributions is considered to model the general interarrival time distribution. Given arrival and service data, a Bayesian procedure based on birth-death Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods is proposed. An estimation of the system parameters and predictive distributions of measures such as the stationary system size and waiting time is give

Sorting between and within Industries: A Testable Model of Assortative Matching

We test Shimer\u27s (2005) theory of the sorting of workers between and within industrial sectors based on directed search with coordination frictions, deliberately maintaining its static general equilibrium framework. We fit the model to sector-specific wage, vacancy and output data, including publicly-available statistics that characterize the distribution of worker and employer wage heterogeneity across sectors. Our empirical method is general and can be applied to a broad class of assignment models. The results indicate that industries are the loci of sorting-more productive workers are employed in more productive industries. The evidence confirms that strong assortative matching can be present even when worker and employer components of wage heterogeneity are weakly correlated

Critically loaded multi-server queues with abandonments, retrials, and time-varying parameters

In this paper, we consider modeling time-dependent multi-server queues that include abandonments and retrials. For the performance analysis of those, fluid and diffusion models called "strong approximations" have been widely used in the literature. Although they are proven to be asymptotically exact, their effectiveness as approximations in critically loaded regimes needs to be investigated. To that end, we find that existing fluid and diffusion approximations might be either inaccurate under simplifying assumptions or computationally intractable. To address that concern, this paper focuses on developing a methodology by adjusting the fluid and diffusion models so that they significantly improve the estimation accuracy. We illustrate the accuracy of our adjusted models by performing a number of numerical experiments

Modeling high-performance wormhole NoCs for critical real-time embedded systems

Manycore chips are a promising computing platform to cope with the increasing performance needs of critical real-time embedded systems (CRTES). However, manycores adoption by CRTES industry requires understanding task's timing behavior when their requests use manycore's network-on-chip (NoC) to access hardware shared resources. This paper analyzes the contention in wormhole-based NoC (wNoC) designs - widely implemented in the high-performance domain - for which we introduce a new metric: worst-contention delay (WCD) that captures wNoC impact on worst-case execution time (WCET) in a tighter manner than the existing metric, worst-case traversal time (WCTT). Moreover, we provide an analytical model of the WCD that requests can suffer in a wNoC and we validate it against wNoC designs resembling those in the Tilera-Gx36 and the Intel-SCC 48-core processors. Building on top of our WCD analytical model, we analyze the impact on WCD that different design parameters such as the number of virtual channels, and we make a set of recommendations on what wNoC setups to use in the context of CRTES.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Variation in habitat choice and delayed reproduction: Adaptive queuing strategies or individual quality differences?

In most species, some individuals delay reproduction or occupy inferior breeding positions. The queue hypothesis tries to explain both patterns by proposing that individuals strategically delay breeding (queue) to acquire better breeding or social positions. In 1995, Ens, Weissing, and Drent addressed evolutionarily stable queuing strategies in situations with habitat heterogeneity. However, their model did not consider the non - mutually exclusive individual quality hypothesis, which suggests that some individuals delay breeding or occupy inferior breeding positions because they are poor competitors. Here we extend their model with individual differences in competitive abilities, which are probably plentiful in nature. We show that including even the smallest competitive asymmetries will result in individuals using queuing strategies completely different from those in models that assume equal competitors. Subsequently, we investigate how well our models can explain settleme! nt patterns in the wild, using a long-term study on oystercatchers. This long-lived shorebird exhibits strong variation in age of first reproduction and territory quality. We show that only models that include competitive asymmetries can explain why oystercatchers' settlement patterns depend on natal origin. We conclude that predictions from queuing models are very sensitive to assumptions about competitive asymmetries, while detecting such differences in the wild is often problematic.