Parameter estimation for macroscopic pedestrian dynamics models from microscopic data

In this paper we develop a framework for parameter estimation in macroscopic pedestrian models using individual trajectories -- microscopic data. We consider a unidirectional flow of pedestrians in a corridor and assume that the velocity decreases with the average density according to the fundamental diagram. Our model is formed from a coupling between a density dependent stochastic differential equation and a nonlinear partial differential equation for the density, and is hence of McKean--Vlasov type. We discuss identifiability of the parameters appearing in the fundamental diagram from trajectories of individuals, and we introduce optimization and Bayesian methods to perform the identification. We analyze the performance of the developed methodologies in various situations, such as for different in- and outflow conditions, for varying numbers of individual trajectories and for differing channel geometries

Parameter estimation for macroscopic pedestrian dynamics models from microscopic data

In this paper we develop a framework for parameter estimation in macroscopic pedestrian models using individual trajectories---microscopic data. We consider a unidirectional flow of pedestrians in a corridor and assume that the velocity decreases with the average density according to the fundamental diagram. Our model is formed from a coupling between a density dependent stochastic differential equation and a nonlinear partial differential equation for the density, and is hence of McKean--Vlasov type. We discuss identifiability of the parameters appearing in the fundamental diagram from trajectories of individuals, and we introduce optimization and Bayesian methods to perform the identification. We analyze the performance of the developed methodologies in various situations, such as for different in- and outflow conditions, for varying numbers of individual trajectories, and for differing channel geometries

From traffic and pedestrian follow-the-leader models with reaction time to first order convection-diffusion flow models

In this work, we derive first order continuum traffic flow models from a microscopic delayed follow-the-leader model. Those are applicable in the context of vehicular traffic flow as well as pedestrian traffic flow. The microscopic model is based on an optimal velocity function and a reaction time parameter. The corresponding macroscopic formulations in Eulerian or Lagrangian coordinates result in first order convection-diffusion equations. More precisely, the convection is described by the optimal velocity while the diffusion term depends on the reaction time. A linear stability analysis for homogeneous solutions of both continuous and discrete models are provided. The conditions match the ones of the car-following model for specific values of the space discretization. The behavior of the novel model is illustrated thanks to numerical simulations. Transitions to collision-free self-sustained stop-and-go dynamics are obtained if the reaction time is sufficiently large. The results show that the dynamics of the microscopic model can be well captured by the macroscopic equations. For non--zero reaction times we observe a scattered fundamental diagram. The scattering width is compared to real pedestrian and road traffic data

Parameter Estimation of Social Forces in Crowd Dynamics Models via a Probabilistic Method

Focusing on a specific crowd dynamics situation, including real life experiments and measurements, our paper targets a twofold aim: (1) we present a Bayesian probabilistic method to estimate the value and the uncertainty (in the form of a probability density function) of parameters in crowd dynamic models from the experimental data; and (2) we introduce a fitness measure for the models to classify a couple of model structures (forces) according to their fitness to the experimental data, preparing the stage for a more general model-selection and validation strategy inspired by probabilistic data analysis. Finally, we review the essential aspects of our experimental setup and measurement technique.Comment: 20 pages, 9 figure

Quantitative Description of Pedestrian Dynamics with a Force based Model

This paper introduces a space-continuous force-based model for simulating pedestrian dynamics. The main interest of this work is the quantitative description of pedestrian movement through a bottleneck. Measurements of flow and density will be presented and compared with empirical data. The results of the proposed model show a good agreement with empirical data. Furthermore, we emphasize the importance of volume exclusion in force-based models.Comment: 4 pages, 7 figures, 2009 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Joint Conferences on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technologies (WI-IAT 2009), 15-18 September 2009, in Milano, Italy, 200

Comparing first order microscopic and macroscopic crowd models for an increasing number of massive agents

In this paper a comparison between first order microscopic and macroscopic differential models of crowd dynamics is established for an increasing number $N$ of pedestrians. The novelty is the fact of considering massive agents, namely particles whose individual mass does not become infinitesimal when $N$ grows. This implies that the total mass of the system is not constant but grows with $N$. The main result is that the two types of models approach one another in the limit $N\to\infty$, provided the strength and/or the domain of pedestrian interactions are properly modulated by $N$ at either scale. This is consistent with the idea that pedestrians may adapt their interpersonal attitudes according to the overall level of congestion.Comment: 26 pages, 8 figure

From individual behaviour to an evaluation of the collective evolution of crowds along footbridges

This paper proposes a crowd dynamic macroscopic model grounded on microscopic phenomenological observations which are upscaled by means of a formal mathematical procedure. The actual applicability of the model to real world problems is tested by considering the pedestrian traffic along footbridges, of interest for Structural and Transportation Engineering. The genuinely macroscopic quantitative description of the crowd flow directly matches the engineering need of bulk results. However, three issues beyond the sole modelling are of primary importance: the pedestrian inflow conditions, the numerical approximation of the equations for non trivial footbridge geometries, and the calibration of the free parameters of the model on the basis of in situ measurements currently available. These issues are discussed and a solution strategy is proposed.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures in J. Engrg. Math., 201

Quantitative Verification of a Force-based Model for Pedestrian Dynamics

This paper introduces a spatially continuous force-based model for simulating pedestrian dynamics. The main intention of this work is the quantitative description of pedestrian movement through bottlenecks and in corridors. Measurements of flow and density at bottlenecks will be presented and compared with empirical data. Furthermore the fundamental diagram for the movement in a corridor is reproduced. The results of the proposed model show a good agreement with empirical data.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures, Proceedings of Traffic and Granular Flow (TGF) 200