8 research outputs found

    Mesoscale to microscale coupling for determining site conditions in complex terrain

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    High resolution reanalysis of wind speeds over the British Isles for wind energy integration

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    The UK has highly ambitious targets for wind development, particularly offshore, where over 30GW of capacity is proposed for development. Integrating such a large amount of variable generation presents enormous challenges. Answering key questions depends on a detailed understanding of the wind resource and its temporal and spatial variability. However, sources of wind speed data, particularly offshore, are relatively sparse: satellite data has low temporal resolution; weather buoys and met stations have low spatial resolution; while the observations from ships and platforms are affected by the structures themselves. This work uses a state-of-the art mesoscale atmospheric model to produce a new high-resolution wind speed dataset over the British Isles and surrounding waters. This covers the whole region at a resolution of 3km for a period of eleven consecutive years, from 2000 to 2010 inclusive, and is thought to be the first high resolution re-analysis to represent a true historic time series, rather than a statistically averaged climatology. The results are validated against observations from met stations, weather buoys, offshore platforms and satellite-derived wind speeds, and model bias is reduced offshore using satellite derived wind speeds. The ability of the dataset to predict power outputs from current wind farms is demonstrated, and the expected patterns of power outputs from future onshore and offshore wind farms are predicted. Patterns of wind production are compared to patterns of electricity demand to provide the first conclusive combined assessment of the ability of future onshore and offshore wind generation meet electricity demand and contribute to secure energy supplies

    The WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP)

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    Mission statement: “Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hours to seasonal”. Increased economic, transportation and research activities in polar regions are leading to more demands for sustained and improved availability of predictive weather and climate information to support decision-making. However, partly as a result of a strong emphasis of previous international efforts on lower and middle latitudes, many gaps in weather, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting in polar regions hamper reliable decision making in the Arctic, Antarctic and possibly the middle latitudes as well. In order to advance polar prediction capabilities, the WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) has been established as one of three THORPEX (THe Observing System Research and Predictability EXperiment) legacy activities. The aim of PPP, a ten year endeavour (2013-2022), is to promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on hourly to seasonal time scales. In order to achieve its goals, PPP will enhance international and interdisciplinary collaboration through the development of strong linkages with related initiatives; strengthen linkages between academia, research institutions and operational forecasting centres; promote interactions and communication between research and stakeholders; and foster education and outreach. Flagship research activities of PPP include sea ice prediction, polar-lower latitude linkages and the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) - an intensive observational, coupled modelling, service-oriented research and educational effort in the period mid-2017 to mid-2019

    Desenvolvimento de um procedimento de Numerical Site Calibration para um Parque Eólico usando Dinâmica de Fluidos Computacional

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    Esta dissertação descreve o desenvolvimento e avaliação de um procedimento de \Numerical Site Calibration" (NSC) para um Parque Eólico, situado a sul de Portugal, usando Dinâmica de Fluídos Computacional (CFD). O NSC encontra-se baseado no \Site Calibration" (SC), sendo este um método de medição padronizado pela Comissão Electrónica Internacional através da norma IEC 61400. Este método tem a finalidade de quantificar e reduzir os efeitos provocados pelo terreno e por possíveis obstáculos, na medição do desempenho energético das turbinas eólicas. Assim, no SC são realizadas medições em dois pontos, no mastro referência e no local da turbina (mastro temporário). No entanto, em Parques Eólicos já construídos, este método não é aplicável visto ser necessária a instalação de um mastro de medição no local da turbina e, por conseguinte, o procedimento adequado para estas circunstâncias é o NSC. O desenvolvimento deste método é feito por um código CFD, desenvolvido por uma equipa de investigação do Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, designado de WINDIETM, usado extensivamente pela empresa Megajoule Inovação, Lda em aplicações de energia eólica em todo mundo. Este código é uma ferramenta para simulação de escoamentos tridimensionais em terrenos complexos. As simulações do escoamento são realizadas no regime transiente utilizando as equações de Navier-Stokes médias de Reynolds com aproximação de Bussinesq e o modelo de turbulência TKE 1.5. As condições fronteira são provenientes dos resultados de uma simulação realizada com Weather Research and Forecasting, WRF. Estas simulações dividem-se em dois grupos, um dos conjuntos de simulações utiliza o esquema convectivo Upwind e o outro utiliza o esquema convectivo de 4aordem. A análise deste método é realizada a partir da comparação dos dados obtidos nas simulações realizadas no código WINDIETM e a coleta de dados medidos durante o processo SC. Em suma, conclui-se que o WINDIETM e as suas configurações reproduzem bons resultados de calibração, ja que produzem erros globais na ordem de dois pontos percentuais em relação ao SC realizado para o mesmo local em estudo.This thesis describes the development and evaluation of a procedure for \Numerical Site Calibration" ( NSC ) for a wind farm, located at south of Portugal, using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The NSC lies \based on Site Calibration" (SC), which is a standardized method of measuring by the International Electronics Commission through IEC 61400. This method aims to quantify and reduce the effects caused by terrain and potential obstacles in measuring energy performance of wind turbines. Thus, the SC measurements are performed at two points on the mast and point of reference turbine (temporary mast). However, on wind farms already constructed, this method is not applicable because the installation of the mast on site measurement of the turbine and therefore the appropriate procedure for these conditions is required to be NSC. The development of this method is done by a CFD code, developed by a research team from the Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, designated WINDIETM, extensively used by the company Megajoule Inovação Lda in wind energy applications around world. This code is a tool for simulation of three-dimensional s in complex terrain. The flow simulations are conducted in the transient regime using the Navier-Stokes equations with Reynolds Averaged approach Bussinesq turbulence model and the TKE 1.5. The boundary conditions are from the results of a simulation performed using Weather Research and Forecasting, WRF. These simulations are divided into two groups, one of the sets of simulations using the convective scheme and other uses Upwind scheme convective 4th order. The analysis of this method is performed starting from the comparison of the data obtained in the simulations WINDIETM code and collect data measured during SC . In sum, we conclude that the WINDIETM and their settings reproduce good calibration results, since they produce global errors on the order of two percentage points over the SC held to the same place studied

    Sequential assimilation of crowdsourced social media data into a simplified flood inundation model

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    Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide. Severe floods can cause significant damage and sometimes loss of life. During a flood event, hydraulic models play an important role in forecasting and identifying potential inundated areas, where emergency responses should be deployed. Nevertheless, hydraulic models are not able to capture all of the processes in flood propagation because flood behaviour is highly dynamic and complex. Thus, there are always uncertainties associated with model simulations. As a result, near-real time observations are required to incorporate with hydraulic models to improve model forecasting skills. Crowdsourced (CS) social media data presents an opportunity for supporting urban flood management as it can provide insightful information collected by individuals in near real-time. In this thesis, approachesto maximise the impact of CS social media data (Twitter) to reduce uncertainty in flood inundation modelling (LISFLOOD-FP) through data assimilation were investigated. The developed methodologies were tested and evaluated using a real flooding case study of Phetchaburi city, Thailand. Firstly, two approaches (binary logistic regression and fuzzy logic) were developed based on Twitter metadata and spatiotemporal analysis to assess the quality of CS social media data. Both methods produced good results, but the binary logistic model was preferred as it involved less subjectivity. Next, the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation methodology was applied to estimate model uncertainty and identify behavioural parameter ranges. Particle swarm optimisation was also carried out to calibrate for an optimum model parameter set. Following this, an ensemble Kalman filter was applied to assimilate the flood depth information extracted from the CS data into the LISFLOOD-FP simulations using various updating strategies. The findings show that the global state update suffers from inconsistency of predicted water levels due to overestimating the impact of the CS data, whereas a topography based local state update provides encouraging results as the uncertainty in model forecasts narrows, albeit for a short time period. To extend the improvement time span, a combination of state and boundary updating was further investigated to correct both water levels and model inputs, and was found to produce longer lasting improvements in terms of uncertainty reduction. Overall, the results indicate the feasibility of applying CS social media data to reduce model uncertainty in flood forecasting
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