The MATSim Network Flow Model for Traffic Simulation Adapted to Large-Scale Emergency Egress and an Application to the Evacuation of the Indonesian City of Padang in Case of a Tsunami Warning

The evacuation of whole cities or even regions is an important problem, as demonstrated by recent events such as evacuation of Houston in the case of Hurricane Rita or the evacuation of coastal cities in the case of Tsunamis. This paper describes a complex evacuation simulation framework for the city of Pandang, with approximately 1,000,000 inhabitants. Padang faces a high risk of being inundated by a tsunami wave. The evacuation simulation is based on the MATSim framework for large-scale transport simulations. Different optimization parameters like evacuation distance, evacuation time, or the variation of the advance warning time are investigated. The results are given as overall evacuation times, evacuation curves, an detailed GIS analysis of the evacuation directions. All these results are discussed with regard to their usability for evacuation recommendations.BMBF, 03G0666E, Verbundprojekt FW: Last-mile Evacuation; Vorhaben: Evakuierungsanalyse und Verkehrsoptimierung, Evakuierungsplan einer Stadt - Sonderprogramm GEOTECHNOLOGIENBMBF, 03NAPAI4, Transport und Verkehr: Verbundprojekt ADVEST: Adaptive Verkehrssteuerung; Teilprojekt Verkehrsplanung und Verkehrssteuerung in Megacitie

DEVELOPMENT OF A MIXED-FLOW OPTIMIZATION SYSTEM FOR EMERGENCY EVACUATION IN URBAN NETWORKS

In most metropolitan areas, an emergency evacuation may demand a potentially large number of evacuees to use transit systems or to walk over some distance to access their passenger cars. In the process of approaching designated pick-up points for evacuation, the massive number of pedestrians often incurs tremendous burden to vehicles in the roadway network. Hence, one critical issue in a multi-modal evacuation planning is the effective coordination of the vehicle and pedestrian flows by considering their complex interactions. The purpose of this research is to develop an integrated system that is capable of generating the optimal evacuation plan and reflecting the real-world network traffic conditions caused by the conflicts of these two types of flows. The first part of this research is an integer programming model designed to optimize the control plans for massive mixed pedestrian-vehicle flows within the evacuation zone. The proposed model, integrating the pedestrian and vehicle networks, can effectively account for their potential conflicts during the evacuation. The model can generate the optimal routing strategies to guide evacuees moving toward either their pick-up locations or parking areas and can also produce a responsive plan to accommodate the massive pedestrian movements. The second part of this research is a mixed-flow simulation tool that can capture the conflicts between pedestrians, between vehicles, and between pedestrians and vehicles in an evacuation network. The core logic of this simulation model is the Mixed-Cellular Automata (MCA) concept, which, with some embedded components, offers a realistic mechanism to reflect the competing and conflicting interactions between vehicle and pedestrian flows. This study is expected to yield the following contributions * Design of an effective framework for planning a multi-modal evacuation within metropolitan areas; * Development of an integrated mixed-flow optimization model that can overcome various modeling and computing difficulties in capturing the mixed-flow dynamics in urban network evacuation; * Construction and calibration of a new mixed-flow simulation model, based on the Cellular Automaton concept, to reflect various conflicting patterns between vehicle and pedestrian flows in an evacuation network

CellEVAC: an adaptive guidance system for crowd evacuation through behavioral optimization

A critical aspect of crowds' evacuation processes is the dynamism of individual decision making. Identifying optimal strategies at an individual level may improve both evacuation time and safety, which is essential for developing efficient evacuation systems. Here, we investigate how to favor a coordinated group dynamic through optimal exit-choice instructions using behavioral strategy optimization. We propose and evaluate an adaptive guidance system (Cell-based Crowd Evacuation, CellEVAC) that dynamically allocates colors to cells in a cellbased pedestrian positioning infrastructure, to provide efficient exit-choice indications. The operational module of CellEVAC implements an optimized discrete-choice model that integrates the influential factors that would make evacuees adapt their exit choice. To optimize the model, we used a simulation?optimization modeling framework that integrates microscopic pedestrian simulation based on the classical Social Force Model. In the majority of studies, the objective has been to optimize evacuation time. In contrast, we paid particular attention to safety by using Pedestrian Fundamental Diagrams that model the dynamics of the exit gates. CellEVAC has been tested in a simulated real scenario (Madrid Arena) under different external pedestrian flow patterns that simulate complex pedestrian interactions. Results showed that CellEVAC outperforms evacuation processes in which the system is not used, with an exponential improvement as interactions become complex. We compared our system with an existing approach based on Cartesian Genetic Programming. Our system exhibited a better overall performance in terms of safety, evacuation time, and the number of revisions of exit-choice decisions. Further analyses also revealed that Cartesian Genetic Programming generates less natural pedestrian reactions and movements than CellEVAC. The fact that the decision logic module is built upon a behavioral model seems to favor a more natural and effective response. We also found that our proposal has a positive influence on evacuations even for a low compliance rate (40%).Ministerio de Economía y Competitivida

Increasing the simulation performance of large-scale evacuations using parallel computing techniques based on domain decomposition

Evacuation simulation has the potential to be used as part of a decision support system during large-scale incidents to provide advice to incident commanders. To be viable in these applications, it is essential that the simulation can run many times faster than real time. Parallel processing is a method of reducing run times for very large computational simulations by distributing the workload amongst a number of processors. This paper presents the development of a parallel version of the rule based evacuation simulation software buildingEXODUS using domain decomposition. Four Case Studies (CS) were tested using a cluster, consisting of 10 Intel Core 2 Duo (dual core) 3.16 GHz CPUs. CS-1 involved an idealised large geometry, with 20 exits, intended to illustrate the peak computational speed up performance of the parallel implementation, the population consisted of 100,000 agents; the peak computational speedup (PCS) was 14.6 and the peak real-time speedup (PRTS) was 4.0. CS-2 was a long area with a single exit area with a population of 100,000 agents; the PCS was 13.2 and the PRTS was 17.2. CS-3 was a 50 storey high rise building with a population of 8000/16,000 agents; the PCS was 2.48/4.49 and the PRTS was 17.9/12.9. CS-4 is a large realistic urban area with 60,000/120,000 agents; the PCS was 5.3/6.89 and the PRTS was 5.31/3.0. This type of computational performance opens evacuation simulation to a range of new innovative application areas such as real-time incident support, dynamic signage in smart buildings and virtual training environments

Ped-Air: A Simulator for Loading, Unloading, and Evacuating Aircraft

AbstractWe present Ped-Air, a pedestrian simulation system to model the loading, unloading, and evacuation of commercial aircraft. We address the challenge of simulating passenger movement in constrained spaces (e.g., aisles and rows), along with complex, coordinating behaviors between the passengers. Ped-Air models different categories of passengers and flight crew, capturing their unique behaviors and complex interactions. We exhibit Ped-Airs capabilities by simulating passenger movements on two representative aircraft: a single-aisle Boeing 737, and a double-aisle Boeing 777. We are able to simulate the following behaviors: stress, luggage placement, flight staff assisting passengers, obstructed exits for evacuation

Modeling, Evaluation, and Scale on Artificial Pedestrians: A Literature Review

Modeling pedestrian dynamics and their implementation in a computer are challenging and important issues in the knowledge areas of transportation and computer simulation. The aim of this article is to provide a bibliographic outlook so that the reader may have quick access to the most relevant works related to this problem. We have used three main axes to organize the article's contents: pedestrian models, validation techniques, and multiscale approaches. The backbone of this work is the classification of existing pedestrian models; we have organized the works in the literature under five categories, according to the techniques used for implementing the operational level in each pedestrian model. Then the main existing validation methods, oriented to evaluate the behavioral quality of the simulation systems, are reviewed. Furthermore, we review the key issues that arise when facing multiscale pedestrian modeling, where we first focus on the behavioral scale (combinations of micro and macro pedestrian models) and second on the scale size (from individuals to crowds). The article begins by introducing the main characteristics of walking dynamics and its analysis tools and concludes with a discussion about the contributions that different knowledge fields can make in the near future to this exciting area

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationWildfire is a common hazard in the western U.S. that can cause significant loss of life and property. When a fire approaches a community and becomes a threat to the residents, emergency managers need to take into account both fire behavior and the expected response of the threatened population to warnings before they issue protective action recommendations to the residents at risk. In wildfire evacuation practices, incident commanders use prominent geographic features (e.g., rivers, roads, and ridgelines) as trigger points, such that when a fire crosses a feature, the selected protective action recommendation will be issued to the residents at risk. This dissertation examines the dynamics of evacuation timing by coupling wildfire spread modeling, trigger modeling, reverse geocoding, and traffic simulation to model wildfire evacuation as a coupled human-environmental system. This dissertation is composed of three manuscripts. In the first manuscript, wildfire simulation and household-level trigger modeling are coupled to stage evacuation warnings. This work presents a bottom-up approach to constructing evacuation warning zones and is characterized by fine-grain, data-driven spatial modeling. The results in this work will help improve our understanding and representation of the spatiotemporal dynamics in wildfire evacuation timing and warnings. The second manuscript integrates trigger modeling and reverse geocoding to extract and select prominent geographic features along the boundary of a trigger buffer. A case study using a global gazetteer GeoNames demonstrates the potential value of the proposed method in facilitating communications in real-world evacuation practice. This work also sheds light on using reverse geocoding in other environmental modeling applications. The third manuscript explores the spatiotemporal dynamics behind evacuation timing by coupling fire and traffic simulation models. The proposed method sets wildfire evacuation triggers based on the estimated evacuation times using agent-based traffic simulation and could be potentially used in evacuation planning. In summary, this dissertation enriches existing trigger modeling approaches by coupling fire simulation, reverse geocoding, and traffic simulation. A framework for modeling wildfire evacuation as a coupled human-environmental system using triggers is proposed. Moreover, this dissertation also attempts to advocate and promote open science in wildfire evacuation modeling by using open data and software tools in different phases of modeling and simulation