Gradient matching methods for computational inference in mechanistic models for systems biology: a review and comparative analysis

Parameter inference in mathematical models of biological pathways, expressed as coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs), is a challenging problem in contemporary systems biology. Conventional methods involve repeatedly solving the ODEs by numerical integration, which is computationally onerous and does not scale up to complex systems. Aimed at reducing the computational costs, new concepts based on gradient matching have recently been proposed in the computational statistics and machine learning literature. In a preliminary smoothing step, the time series data are interpolated; then, in a second step, the parameters of the ODEs are optimised so as to minimise some metric measuring the difference between the slopes of the tangents to the interpolants, and the time derivatives from the ODEs. In this way, the ODEs never have to be solved explicitly. This review provides a concise methodological overview of the current state-of-the-art methods for gradient matching in ODEs, followed by an empirical comparative evaluation based on a set of widely used and representative benchmark data

Approximate parameter inference in systems biology using gradient matching: a comparative evaluation

Background: A challenging problem in current systems biology is that of parameter inference in biological pathways expressed as coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Conventional methods that repeatedly numerically solve the ODEs have large associated computational costs. Aimed at reducing this cost, new concepts using gradient matching have been proposed, which bypass the need for numerical integration. This paper presents a recently established adaptive gradient matching approach, using Gaussian processes, combined with a parallel tempering scheme, and conducts a comparative evaluation with current state of the art methods used for parameter inference in ODEs. Among these contemporary methods is a technique based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). This has previously shown promising results for parameter estimation, but under lax experimental settings. We look at a range of scenarios to test the robustness of this method. We also change the approach of inferring the penalty parameter from AIC to cross validation to improve the stability of the method. Methodology: Methodology for the recently proposed adaptive gradient matching method using Gaussian processes, upon which we build our new method, is provided. Details of a competing method using reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces are also described here. Results: We conduct a comparative analysis for the methods described in this paper, using two benchmark ODE systems. The analyses are repeated under different experimental settings, to observe the sensitivity of the techniques. Conclusions: Our study reveals that for known noise variance, our proposed method based on Gaussian processes and parallel tempering achieves overall the best performance. When the noise variance is unknown, the RKHS method proves to be more robust

Accelerating moderately stiff chemical kinetics in reactive-flow simulations using GPUs

The chemical kinetics ODEs arising from operator-split reactive-flow simulations were solved on GPUs using explicit integration algorithms. Nonstiff chemical kinetics of a hydrogen oxidation mechanism (9 species and 38 irreversible reactions) were computed using the explicit fifth-order Runge-Kutta-Cash-Karp method, and the GPU-accelerated version performed faster than single- and six-core CPU versions by factors of 126 and 25, respectively, for 524,288 ODEs. Moderately stiff kinetics, represented with mechanisms for hydrogen/carbon-monoxide (13 species and 54 irreversible reactions) and methane (53 species and 634 irreversible reactions) oxidation, were computed using the stabilized explicit second-order Runge-Kutta-Chebyshev (RKC) algorithm. The GPU-based RKC implementation demonstrated an increase in performance of nearly 59 and 10 times, for problem sizes consisting of 262,144 ODEs and larger, than the single- and six-core CPU-based RKC algorithms using the hydrogen/carbon-monoxide mechanism. With the methane mechanism, RKC-GPU performed more than 65 and 11 times faster, for problem sizes consisting of 131,072 ODEs and larger, than the single- and six-core RKC-CPU versions, and up to 57 times faster than the six-core CPU-based implicit VODE algorithm on 65,536 ODEs. In the presence of more severe stiffness, such as ethylene oxidation (111 species and 1566 irreversible reactions), RKC-GPU performed more than 17 times faster than RKC-CPU on six cores for 32,768 ODEs and larger, and at best 4.5 times faster than VODE on six CPU cores for 65,536 ODEs. With a larger time step size, RKC-GPU performed at best 2.5 times slower than six-core VODE for 8192 ODEs and larger. Therefore, the need for developing new strategies for integrating stiff chemistry on GPUs was discussed.Comment: 27 pages, LaTeX; corrected typos in Appendix equations A.10 and A.1

Numerical equilibrium analysis for structured consumer resource models

In this paper, we present methods for a numerical equilibrium and stability analysis for models of a size structured population competing for an unstructured resource. We concentrate on cases where two model parameters are free, and thus existence boundaries for equilibria and stability boundaries can be defined in the (two-parameter) plane. We numerically trace these implicitly defined curves using alternatingly tangent prediction and Newton correction. Evaluation of the maps defining the curves involves integration over individual size and individual survival probability (and their derivatives) as functions of individual age. Such ingredients are often defined as solutions of ODE, i.e., in general only implicitly. In our case, the right-hand sides of these ODE feature discontinuities that are caused by an abrupt change of behavior at the size where juveniles are assumed to turn adult. So, we combine the numerical solution of these ODE with curve tracing methods. We have implemented the algorithms for “Daphnia consuming algae” models in C-code. The results obtained by way of this implementation are shown in the form of graphs

Efficient numerical stability analysis of detonation waves in ZND

As described in the classic works of Lee--Stewart and Short--Stewart, the numerical evaluation of linear stability of planar detonation waves is a computationally intensive problem of considerable interest in applications. Reexamining this problem from a modern numerical Evans function point of view, we derive a new algorithm for their stability analysis, related to a much older method of Erpenbeck, that, while equally simple and easy to implement as the standard method introduced by Lee--Stewart, appears to be potentially faster and more stable