9,894 research outputs found
Metropolis Sampling
Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods are widely applied in Bayesian inference,
system simulation and optimization problems. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo
(MCMC) algorithms are a well-known class of MC methods which generate a Markov
chain with the desired invariant distribution. In this document, we focus on
the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) sampler, which can be considered as the atom of
the MCMC techniques, introducing the basic notions and different properties. We
describe in details all the elements involved in the MH algorithm and the most
relevant variants. Several improvements and recent extensions proposed in the
literature are also briefly discussed, providing a quick but exhaustive
overview of the current Metropolis-based sampling's world.Comment: Wiley StatsRef-Statistics Reference Online, 201
A statistical approach to the inverse problem in magnetoencephalography
Magnetoencephalography (MEG) is an imaging technique used to measure the
magnetic field outside the human head produced by the electrical activity
inside the brain. The MEG inverse problem, identifying the location of the
electrical sources from the magnetic signal measurements, is ill-posed, that
is, there are an infinite number of mathematically correct solutions. Common
source localization methods assume the source does not vary with time and do
not provide estimates of the variability of the fitted model. Here, we
reformulate the MEG inverse problem by considering time-varying locations for
the sources and their electrical moments and we model their time evolution
using a state space model. Based on our predictive model, we investigate the
inverse problem by finding the posterior source distribution given the multiple
channels of observations at each time rather than fitting fixed source
parameters. Our new model is more realistic than common models and allows us to
estimate the variation of the strength, orientation and position. We propose
two new Monte Carlo methods based on sequential importance sampling. Unlike the
usual MCMC sampling scheme, our new methods work in this situation without
needing to tune a high-dimensional transition kernel which has a very high
cost. The dimensionality of the unknown parameters is extremely large and the
size of the data is even larger. We use Parallel Virtual Machine (PVM) to speed
up the computation.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS716 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Langevin and Hamiltonian based Sequential MCMC for Efficient Bayesian Filtering in High-dimensional Spaces
Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models arise in numerous applications in
statistics and signal processing. In this context, one of the most successful
and popular approximation techniques is the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)
algorithm, also known as particle filtering. Nevertheless, this method tends to
be inefficient when applied to high dimensional problems. In this paper, we
focus on another class of sequential inference methods, namely the Sequential
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) techniques, which represent a promising
alternative to SMC methods. After providing a unifying framework for the class
of SMCMC approaches, we propose novel efficient strategies based on the
principle of Langevin diffusion and Hamiltonian dynamics in order to cope with
the increasing number of high-dimensional applications. Simulation results show
that the proposed algorithms achieve significantly better performance compared
to existing algorithms
Bayesian computational methods
In this chapter, we will first present the most standard computational
challenges met in Bayesian Statistics, focussing primarily on mixture
estimation and on model choice issues, and then relate these problems with
computational solutions. Of course, this chapter is only a terse introduction
to the problems and solutions related to Bayesian computations. For more
complete references, see Robert and Casella (2004, 2009), or Marin and Robert
(2007), among others. We also restrain from providing an introduction to
Bayesian Statistics per se and for comprehensive coverage, address the reader
to Robert (2007), (again) among others.Comment: This is a revised version of a chapter written for the Handbook of
Computational Statistics, edited by J. Gentle, W. Hardle and Y. Mori in 2003,
in preparation for the second editio
Orthogonal parallel MCMC methods for sampling and optimization
Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used for Bayesian inference and
optimization in statistics, signal processing and machine learning. A
well-known class of MC methods are Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms.
In order to foster better exploration of the state space, specially in
high-dimensional applications, several schemes employing multiple parallel MCMC
chains have been recently introduced. In this work, we describe a novel
parallel interacting MCMC scheme, called {\it orthogonal MCMC} (O-MCMC), where
a set of "vertical" parallel MCMC chains share information using some
"horizontal" MCMC techniques working on the entire population of current
states. More specifically, the vertical chains are led by random-walk
proposals, whereas the horizontal MCMC techniques employ independent proposals,
thus allowing an efficient combination of global exploration and local
approximation. The interaction is contained in these horizontal iterations.
Within the analysis of different implementations of O-MCMC, novel schemes in
order to reduce the overall computational cost of parallel multiple try
Metropolis (MTM) chains are also presented. Furthermore, a modified version of
O-MCMC for optimization is provided by considering parallel simulated annealing
(SA) algorithms. Numerical results show the advantages of the proposed sampling
scheme in terms of efficiency in the estimation, as well as robustness in terms
of independence with respect to initial values and the choice of the
parameters
A Bayesian Approach to the Detection Problem in Gravitational Wave Astronomy
The analysis of data from gravitational wave detectors can be divided into
three phases: search, characterization, and evaluation. The evaluation of the
detection - determining whether a candidate event is astrophysical in origin or
some artifact created by instrument noise - is a crucial step in the analysis.
The on-going analyses of data from ground based detectors employ a frequentist
approach to the detection problem. A detection statistic is chosen, for which
background levels and detection efficiencies are estimated from Monte Carlo
studies. This approach frames the detection problem in terms of an infinite
collection of trials, with the actual measurement corresponding to some
realization of this hypothetical set. Here we explore an alternative, Bayesian
approach to the detection problem, that considers prior information and the
actual data in hand. Our particular focus is on the computational techniques
used to implement the Bayesian analysis. We find that the Parallel Tempered
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PTMCMC) algorithm is able to address all three phases
of the anaylsis in a coherent framework. The signals are found by locating the
posterior modes, the model parameters are characterized by mapping out the
joint posterior distribution, and finally, the model evidence is computed by
thermodynamic integration. As a demonstration, we consider the detection
problem of selecting between models describing the data as instrument noise, or
instrument noise plus the signal from a single compact galactic binary. The
evidence ratios, or Bayes factors, computed by the PTMCMC algorithm are found
to be in close agreement with those computed using a Reversible Jump Markov
Chain Monte Carlo algorithm.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, revised to address referee's comment
Getting Started with Particle Metropolis-Hastings for Inference in Nonlinear Dynamical Models
This tutorial provides a gentle introduction to the particle
Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm for parameter inference in nonlinear
state-space models together with a software implementation in the statistical
programming language R. We employ a step-by-step approach to develop an
implementation of the PMH algorithm (and the particle filter within) together
with the reader. This final implementation is also available as the package
pmhtutorial in the CRAN repository. Throughout the tutorial, we provide some
intuition as to how the algorithm operates and discuss some solutions to
problems that might occur in practice. To illustrate the use of PMH, we
consider parameter inference in a linear Gaussian state-space model with
synthetic data and a nonlinear stochastic volatility model with real-world
data.Comment: 41 pages, 7 figures. In press for Journal of Statistical Software.
Source code for R, Python and MATLAB available at:
https://github.com/compops/pmh-tutoria
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