PROCUREMENT STRATEGIES: IMPACTS OF QUALITY RISKS IN HARD WHEAT

Analytical models were developed in this paper to evaluate cost/risk tradeoffs of three alternative procurement strategies in the case of hard red spring (HRS) wheat. Results indicate a naive strategy has the lowest expected cost, but a high probability of not conforming to end-use requirements. Two alternative specifications for the constant share strategy result in higher probabilities of meeting requirements, but at higher costs. The opportunistic strategy results in a higher probability of meeting requirements than either of the other two alternative strategies at a comparable cost.Crop Production/Industries,

PHOSPHORUS-BASED NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT PLANNING ON DAIRY/POULTRY FARMS: IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS

The effects of phosphorus (P)-based nutrient management plans on economic and environmental risks of dairy and dairy-poultry farms in Virginia were evaluated. Phosphorus-based nutrient management plans can greatly reduce P runoff risk but also reduce farmers' returns. P-based plans cause greater reductions in returns and P runoff on the dairy-poultry farm than on the dairy only farm.nutrient runoff, cost, mathematical programming, simulation, watershed, Environmental Economics and Policy, Livestock Production/Industries,

PROCUREMENT STRATEGIES: IMPACTS OF QUALITY RISKS IN HARD WHEAT

Development and organization of procurement strategies have escalated in importance with maturity of the food processing industry, as well as with the prospect of greater choice attributable to variety development and information technology. Conventional alternatives for procurement range from spot purchases with specifications for easily measurable characteristics, to varying forms of strategies with pre-commitment. In the case of grains these choices are complicated by two factors. First, there is intrinsic uncertainty associated with end-use qualities that are not easily measurable. Second, grain prices and therefore procurement costs vary spatially due to competing market regions. Thus, shifting origins may involve higher cost due to having to bid grain away from its next best market. We posed three procurement strategies and developed analytical models to evaluate the risks and costs among these alternatives in the case of hard red spring (HRS) wheat. The first involves no commitment. The second involves some form of irrevocable commitment and the third entails less commitment. Stochastic simulation models were developed for each with an objective of cost minimization subject to different levels of risk. The results indicate that the naive strategy has the lowest expected cost, but a fairly high probability of not conforming to end-use requirements. The constant share strategies result in higher probabilities of meeting requirements, but at substantially higher costs. The opportunistic strategy results in a higher probability of meeting requirements than either of the other two alternative strategies at a comparable cost.Marketing, Agribusiness,

Stochastic Dominance Analysis of Bioenergy Crops as a Production Alternative on an East Tennessee Beef and Crop Farm

This study evaluated prices and incentives for switchgrass stated in a biorefinery’s contract terms that induce switchgrass production on an east Tennessee representative farm when compared with traditional enterprises. The alternate contract terms imitated current subsidies/incentives offered as well as incentives and cost share terms not in the BCAP.switchgrass, contract, risk aversion, net return, Farm Management, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q12,

Leaf Optical Responses to Light and Soil Nutrient Availability in Temperature Deciduous Trees

Leaf optical parameters influence light availability at the cellular, leaf, and canopy scale of integration. While recent studies have focused on leaf optical responses to acute plant stress, the effects of changes in plant resources on leaf optics remain poorly characterized. We examined leaf optical and anatomical responses of five temperate deciduous tree species to moderate changes in nutrient and light availability. Spectral reflectance in the visible waveband generally increased at high light, but decreased with increased nutrient availability. Patterns of both spectral reflectance and absorptance were primarily determined by chlorophyll concentration although carotenoid concentration was also influential. While most anatomical features did not explain residual variation in reflectance, cuticle thickness was significantly related to reflectance at complementary angles compared to the angle of incidence. Absorptance did not change with light environment; however, absorption efficiency per unit biomass increased by approximately 40% under low light, due to reduced leaf mass per area. We conclude that changes in resource availability differentially influence leaf optical properties and that such changes are driven primarily by changes in pigment concentrations. The magnitude of leaf optical responses to moderate changes in resource availability was comparable to those of acute stress responses and varied among species

Focus on some aspects of market price trends for tungsten

The contribution deals with prices of tungsten concentrate and ammonium paratungstate (APT) where the latter represents the most common form of tungsten for trading purposes. Taking examples of US and China tungsten markets, this paper demonstrates that the tungsten market price is influenced by many other factors than only those of supply and demand. As based on the past pricing trends for tungsten ore concentrates and also ammonium paratungstate (APT), a two year's tungsten price forecast has been developed. The data published by the Metal Bulletin between January 2002 and June 2015 served the purpose of our future trend forecasting. The forecast took advantage of the programme, @RISK by Palisade Corporation, Ithaca, New York (Industrial Edition, Excel Version 6.3.1). The forecast outcomes acquired by GARCH (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedastic Model) implied a modification of the original time series of the APT prices, i.e. exclusion of relatively stable prices of the initial period, and the immediate phase of their temporary growth. In the next step, the forecast for APT prices was obtained by means of applying the model MA (Moving Average Model). The outcome corroborates the theory of the growth and drop pricing cycles, which mechanism also applies to tungsten ore concentrate markets.Web of Science22213512

MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES OF RACEHORSE EARNINGS AND PROFITABILITY

Thoroughbred racehorses are commonly characterized as unprofitable investments. Previous studies, grouping all racehorses together, estimate that over 80% of all racehorses in training fail to earn enough to recover the variable costs of training. However, these studies are not truly representative, because they fail to account for a number of factors affecting profitability. This study estimates expected purse earnings and profitability of claiming horses in Kentucky. Maximum-likelihood estimates of probability distribution parameters show that expected purse earnings follow an exponential distribution with a mean of $25,267. Profitability is best described by a Gamma distribution with a mean of$4,824. Of the 305 claims analyzed for profitability, 61% were profitable. The results indicate substantial financial risk associated with claiming race horses, but conclude that there are positive economic returns on average.claiming horses, financial risk, maximum likelihood, probability, profitability, thoroughbred, Agribusiness,

Malt Barley Risk Management Strategies

Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

MARKETING MECHANISMS IN GM GRAINS AND OILSEEDS

A number of challenges exist for genetically modified (GM) crop development at the production level. Contract strategies can resolve these challenges. Contracts can be designed to induce legal adoption of GM wheat by varying technology fees, violation detection, and penalties. The primary objective of this research is to analyze contracting strategies to determine terms to minimize technology agreement violation and to induce legal adoption of GM wheat. A simulation model of a crop budget for Hard Red Spring wheat was developed. Results illustrate that contracts can be designed to induce desired behavior. Technology fee, probability of detection, and the level of non-GM premium were the most notable factors influencing adoption decisions.Producer Decisions, Risk, Genetically Modified, Contract Terms, Wheat, Crop Production/Industries,