Network Analysis for Predicting Academic Impact

How are scholars ranked for promotion, tenure and honors? How can we improve the quantitative tools available for decision makers when making such decisions? Current academic decisions are mostly very subjective. In the era of “Big Data,” a solid quantitative set of measurements should be used to support this decision process. This paper presents a method for predicting the probability of a paper being in the most cited papers using only data available at the time of publication. We find that structural network properties are associated with increased odds of being in the top percentile of citation count. The paper also presents a method for predicting the future impact of researchers, using information available early in their careers. This model integrates information about changes in a young researcher’s role in the citation network and co-authorship network and demonstrates how this improves predictions of their future impact

Accumulative time-based ranking method to reputation evaluation in information networks

With the rapid development of modern technology, the Web has become an important platform for users to make friends and acquire information. However, since information on the Web is over-abundant, information filtering becomes a key task for online users to obtain relevant suggestions. As most Websites can be ranked according to users' rating and preferences, relevance to queries, and recency, how to extract the most relevant item from the over-abundant information is always a key topic for researchers in various fields. In this paper, we adopt tools used to analyze complex networks to evaluate user reputation and item quality. In our proposed accumulative time-based ranking (ATR) algorithm, we incorporate two behavioral weighting factors which are updated when users select or rate items, to reflect the evolution of user reputation and item quality over time. We showed that our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art ranking algorithms in terms of precision and robustness on empirical datasets from various online retailers and the citation datasets among research publications

Predictive Modeling for Navigating Social Media

Social media changes the way people use the Web. It has transformed ordinary Web users from information consumers to content contributors. One popular form of content contribution is social tagging, in which users assign tags to Web resources. By the collective efforts of the social tagging community, a new information space has been created for information navigation. Navigation allows serendipitous discovery of information by examining the information objects linked to one another in the social tagging space. In this dissertation, we study prediction tasks that facilitate navigation in social tagging systems. For social tagging systems to meet complex navigation needs of users, two issues are fundamental, namely link sparseness and object selection. Link sparseness is observed for many resources that are untagged or inadequately tagged, hindering navigation to the resources. Object selection is concerned when there are a large number of information objects that are linked to the current object, requiring to select the more interesting or relevant ones for guiding navigation effectively. This dissertation focuses on three dimensions, namely the semantic, social and temporal dimensions, to address link sparseness and object selection. To address link sparseness, we study the task of tag prediction. This task aims to enrich tags for the untagged or inadequately tagged resources, such that the predicted tags can serve as navigable links to these resources. For this task, we take a topic modeling approach to exploit the latent semantic relationships between resource content and tags. To address object selection, we study the task of personalized tag recommendation and trend discovery using social annotations. Personalized tag recommendation leverages the collective wisdom from the social tagging community to recommend tags that are semantically relevant to the target resource, while being tailored to the tagging preferences of individual users. For this task, we propose a probabilistic framework which leverages the implicit social links between like-minded users, i.e. who show similar tagging preferences, to recommend suitable tags. Social tags capture the interest of the users in the annotated resources at different times. These social annotations allow us to construct temporal profiles for the annotated resources. By analyzing these temporal profiles, we unveil the non-trivial temporal trends of the annotated resources, which provide novel metrics for selecting relevant and interesting resources for guiding navigation. For trend discovery using social annotations, we propose a trend discovery process which enables us to analyze trends for a multitude of semantics encapsulated in the temporal profiles of the annotated resources

Mining Scholarly Publications for Research Evaluation

Scientific research can lead to breakthroughs that revolutionise society by solving long-standing problems. However, investment of public funds into research requires the ability to clearly demonstrate beneficial returns, accountability, and good management. At the same time, with the amount of scholarly literature rapidly expanding, recognising key research that presents the most important contributions to science is becoming increasingly difficult and time-consuming. This creates a need for effective and appropriate research evaluation methods. However, the question of how to evaluate the quality of research outcomes is very difficult to answer and despite decades of research, there is still no standard solution to this problem. Given this growing need for research evaluation, it is increasingly important to understand how research should be evaluated, and whether the existing methods meet this need. However, the current solutions, which are predominantly based on counting the number of interactions in the scholarly communication network, are insufficient for a number of reasons. In particular, they struggle in capturing many aspects of the academic culture and often significantly lag behind current developments. This work focuses on the evaluation of research publications and aims at creating new methods which utilise publication content. It studies the concept of research publication quality, methods assessing the performance of new research publication evaluation methods, analyses and extends the existing methods, and, most importantly, presents a new class of metrics which are based on publication manuscripts. By bridging the fields of research evaluation and text- and data-mining, this work provides tools for analysing the outcomes of research, and for relieving information overload in scholarly publishing