The Prudence of Mexican Consumers

The ENIGH household surveys are used to investigate the strength of the precautionary motive in Mexico, using pseudo-panel methods to obtain estimates of the coefficient of relative prudence for Mexican consumers. The method provided accounts for the aggregation problems arising from unequally-spaced surveys. The low levels of prudence found can help explain why consumers had insufficient savings to smooth consumption during the peso crisis. Differences in prudence may also explain the low household savings rates in Mexico compared to the high savings rates in East Asian countries such as Taiwan.prudence, pseudo-panel, aggregation

Feasibility and dominance rules in the electromagnetism-like algorithm for constrained global optimization

This paper presents the use of a constraint-handling technique, known as feasibility and dominance rules, in a electromagnetismlike (ELM) mechanism for solving constrained global optimization problems. Since the original ELM algorithm is specifically designed for solving bound constrained problems, only the inequality and equality constraints violation together with the objective function value are used to select points and to progress towards feasibility and optimality. Numerical experiments are presented, including a comparison with other methods recently reported in the literature

Can Subsidiaries of Foreign Banks Contribute to the Stability of the Forex Market in Emerging Economies? A Look at Some Evidence from the Mexican...

Over the last decade, the ownership of the banking sector in Latin America has changed hands from local shareholders to large foreign banks from Spain and the United States. It is also a fact that the foreign exchange market in these countries has been segmented through various kinds of restrictions, because the central bank is unable to function as a lender of last resort in a currency other than its own. The standing issue is whether in practice, a parent bank effectively takes the role of such lender of last resort in supporting its subsidiaries overseas. If that were to be the case, the question is if having a significant participation of foreign subsidiaries is a necessary condition for lifting such restrictions. The data on the compliance of domestic and foreign banks with the dollar reserve requirements in Mexico is used to try to address this question. The answer is a qualified yes. When there are weak domestic banks, it seems that subsidiaries of foreign banks have a better access to funding in foreign exchange, specially in times of stress. However, when compared with strong domestic banks, the evidence suggests that these local entities can do as well or even better than the foreign subsidiaries.

The Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity: Is it Near-rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market?

A risk-averse US investor adjusts the shares of a portfolio of short-term nominal domestic and foreign assets to maximize expected utility. The optimal strategy is to respond immediately to all new information which arrives weekly. We calculate the expected utility foregone when the investor abandons the optimal strategy and instead optimizes less frequently. We also consider the cases where the investor ignores the covariance between returns sourced in different countries, and where the investor makes unsystematic mistakes when forming expectations of exchange rate changes. We demonstrate that the expected utility cost of sub-optimal behaviour is generally very small. Thus, for example, if investors adjust portfolio shares every three months, they incur an average expected utility loss equivalent to about 0.16% p.a. It is therefore plausible that slight opportunity costs of frequent optimization may outweigh the benefits. This result may help explain the failure of uncovered interest parity.

ADJUSTING CORRELATION MATRICES

The article proposes a new algorithm for adjusting correlation matrices and for comparison with Finger's algorithm, which is used to compute Value-at-Risk in RiskMetrics for stress test scenarios. The solution proposed by the new methodology is always better than Finger's approach in the sense that it alters as little as possible those correlations that we do not wish to alter but they change in order to obtain a consistent Finger correlation matrix.Stochastic, Volatility, Skewness, Kurtosis, Pricing.

Is IPO Underperformance a Peso Problem?

Recent studies suggest that the underperformance of IPOs in the post-1970 sample may be a small sample effect or %u201CPeso%u201D problem. That is, IPO underperformance may result from observing too few star performers ex-post than were expected ex-ante. We develop a model of IPO performance that captures this intuition by allowing returns to be drawn from mixtures of outstanding, benchmark, or poor performing states. We estimate the model under the null of no ex-ante average IPO underperformance and construct small sample distributions of various statistics measuring IPO relative performance. We find that small sample biases are extremely unlikely to account for the magnitude of the post-1970 IPO underperformance observed in data.