Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study

Overconfidence can have important economic consequences, but has received little direct testing within the discipline. We test for overconfidence in forecasts of own absolute or relative performance in two unfamiliar experimental tasks. Given their choice of effort at the tasks, participants have incentives to forecast accurately, and have opportunities for feedback, learning and revision. Forecast accuracy is evaluated at both the aggregate level, and at the individual level using realized outcomes. We find very limited evidence of overconfidence, with zero mean error or under-confidence more prevalent. Under-confidence is greatest in tasks with absolute rather than relative win criteria, often among subjects using greater or "smarter" effort.Overconfidence; forecast errors; self-assessment

The Effects of Preference Characteristics and Overconfidence on Economic Incentives

This dissertation is a collection of three independent research papers and three chapters with surveys introducing into the respective literature. The first paper analyses the effects of introducing Inequity Aversion in a Moral Hazard Problem, the second paper is about optimal delegation in groups involved in contests, and the third paper is about the optimal delegation decision of firms who can hire possibly overconfident managers.Incentives; Inequity Aversion; Contracts; Strategic Delegation; Overconfidence

On the Positive Effects of Overcon fident Self-Perception in Teams

In this paper, we study the individual payoff effects of overconfident self-perception in teams. In particular, we demonstrate that the welfare of an overconfident agent in a team of one rational and one overconfident agent or a team of two overconfident agents can be higher than that of the members of a team of two rational agents. This result holds irrespective of the assumption about the agents' awareness of their colleague's bias. Moreover, we show that an overcondent agent is always better of when he is unaware of a potential bias of his colleague

Know Thyself: Incompetence and Overconfidence

Economic analyses of asymmetric information typically start with the assumption that individuals know more about their own characteristics than outside observers. This assumption implies that individuals can accurately assess their own competence in a given domain. However, individuals can only judge their competence if they are sufficiently competent. The relationship between competence and self-awareness explains a great deal of the overconfidence observed among economic agents. More specifically, overconfidence is inversely proportional to competence. Through a series of experiments and analyses of field data, the link between incompetence and overconfidence is confirmed and its implications for economic theory are explored.overconfidence, competence, asymmetric information, gender, economic experiment

Do Women Prefer a Co-operative Work Environment?

Are women disproportionately attracted to work environments where cooperation rather than competition is rewarded? This paper reports the results of a real-effort experiment in which participants choose between an individual compensation scheme and a team-based payment scheme. We find that women are more likely than men to select team-based compensation in our baseline treatment, but women and men join teams with equal frequency when we add an efficiency advantage to team production. Using a simple structural discrete choice framework to reconcile these facts, we show that three elements can explain the observed patterns in the team-entry gender gap: (1) a gender gap in confidence in others (i.e. women are less pessimistic about their prospective teammates' relative ability), (2) a greater responsiveness among men to instrumental reasons for joining teams, and (3) a greater "pure" preference for working in a team environment among women.gender, cooperation, self-selection, confidence, experiment

Overconfidence in the Markets for Lemons

We extend Akerlof (1970)’s “Market for Lemons” by assuming that some buyers are overconfident. Buyers in our model receive a noisy signal about the quality of the good that is on display for sale. Overconfident buyers do not update according to Bayes’ rule but take the noisy signal at face value. We show that the presence of overconfident buyers can stabilize the market outcome by preventing total adverse selection. This stabilization, however, comes at a cost: rational buyers are crowded out of the market

Spinoff Entry in High-tech Industries: Motives and Consequences

Various theories have been advanced for why employees leave incumbent firms to found firms in the same industry, which we call spinoffs. We review the accumulating evidence about spinoffs in various high-tech industries, highlighting the central role often played by disagreements. Because existing theories have ignored them, we develop the foundations of a model of spinoff formation driven by disagreements. Doing so proves to be rather challenging, because disagreements are not possible among rational actors that talk to each other. We introduce a minimal degree of non-rationality, based on the concept of solipsism, and ask whether such a concept is capable of generating predictions consistent with the empirical literature.Spinoffs, Technological change, learning, disagreements

Overconfidence in a Career-Concerns Setting

We study the effects of overconfidence in a two-period investment-decision agency setting. Under common priors, agent risk aversion implies inefficiently low first-period investment. In our model, principal and agent disagree about the profitability of the investment decision conditional on a given public signal. An overconfident agent believes that the principal will update her beliefs upwards more often than not. As a consequence, the agent overestimates the benefits of learning from first-period investment. This implies that agent overconfidence mitigates the agency problems arising from the agent’s career concerns, even though an overconfident agent bears more project and reputational risk in equilibrium.overconfidence, heterogenous beliefs, career concerns

Disagreement and security design

We study optimal security design when the issuer and market participants agree to disagree about the characteristics of the asset to be securitized. We show that pooling assets can be optimal because it mitigates the effects of disagreement between issuer and investors, whereas tranching a cash-flow stream allows the issuer to exploit disagreement between investors. Interestingly, pooling and tranching can be complements. The optimality of debt with or without call provisions can be derived as a special case. In a model with multiple financing rounds, convertible securities naturally emerge to finance highly skewed ventures

Scientific Method, Anti-Foundationalism, and Public Decision-making

An examination of the legitimacy of attacks on lay assessments of environmental or other technological Risk. The case is made that rational policy requires an epistemology in which what we believe about Risk is bootstrapped onto how we should act concerning Risk