Splitting hybrid Make-To-Order and Make-To-Stock demand profiles

In this paper a demand time series is analysed to support Make-To-Stock (MTS) and Make-To-Order (MTO) production decisions. Using a purely MTS production strategy based on the given demand can lead to unnecessarily high inventory levels thus it is necessary to identify likely MTO episodes. This research proposes a novel outlier detection algorithm based on special density measures. We divide the time series' histogram into three clusters. One with frequent-low volume covers MTS items whilst a second accounts for high volumes which is dedicated to MTO items. The third cluster resides between the previous two with its elements being assigned to either the MTO or MTS class. The algorithm can be applied to a variety of time series such as stationary and non-stationary ones. We use empirical data from manufacturing to study the extent of inventory savings. The percentage of MTO items is reflected in the inventory savings which were shown to be an average of 18.1%.Comment: demand analysis; time series; outlier detection; production strategy; Make-To-Order(MTO); Make-To-Stock(MTS); 15 pages, 9 figure

Robust and sparse factor modelling.

Factor construction methods are widely used to summarize a large panel of variables by means of a relatively small number of representative factors. We propose a novel factor construction procedure that enjoys the properties of robustness to outliers and of sparsity; that is, having relatively few nonzero factor loadings. Compared to the traditional factor construction method, we find that this procedure leads to a favorable forecasting performance in the presence of outliers and to better interpretable factors. We investigate the performance of the method in a Monte Carlo experiment and in an empirical application to a large data set from macroeconomics.Dimension reduction; Forecasting; Outliers; Regularization; Sparsity;

Bayesian outlier detection in Capital Asset Pricing Model

We propose a novel Bayesian optimisation procedure for outlier detection in the Capital Asset Pricing Model. We use a parametric product partition model to robustly estimate the systematic risk of an asset. We assume that the returns follow independent normal distributions and we impose a partition structure on the parameters of interest. The partition structure imposed on the parameters induces a corresponding clustering of the returns. We identify via an optimisation procedure the partition that best separates standard observations from the atypical ones. The methodology is illustrated with reference to a real data set, for which we also provide a microeconomic interpretation of the detected outliers

Designing algorithms to aid discovery by chemical robots

Recently, automated robotic systems have become very efficient, thanks to improved coupling between sensor systems and algorithms, of which the latter have been gaining significance thanks to the increase in computing power over the past few decades. However, intelligent automated chemistry platforms for discovery orientated tasks need to be able to cope with the unknown, which is a profoundly hard problem. In this Outlook, we describe how recent advances in the design and application of algorithms, coupled with the increased amount of chemical data available, and automation and control systems may allow more productive chemical research and the development of chemical robots able to target discovery. This is shown through examples of workflow and data processing with automation and control, and through the use of both well-used and cutting-edge algorithms illustrated using recent studies in chemistry. Finally, several algorithms are presented in relation to chemical robots and chemical intelligence for knowledge discovery

A survey of outlier detection methodologies

Outlier detection has been used for centuries to detect and, where appropriate, remove anomalous observations from data. Outliers arise due to mechanical faults, changes in system behaviour, fraudulent behaviour, human error, instrument error or simply through natural deviations in populations. Their detection can identify system faults and fraud before they escalate with potentially catastrophic consequences. It can identify errors and remove their contaminating effect on the data set and as such to purify the data for processing. The original outlier detection methods were arbitrary but now, principled and systematic techniques are used, drawn from the full gamut of Computer Science and Statistics. In this paper, we introduce a survey of contemporary techniques for outlier detection. We identify their respective motivations and distinguish their advantages and disadvantages in a comparative review

Analyzing big time series data in solar engineering using features and PCA

In solar engineering, we encounter big time series data such as the satellite-derived irradiance data and string-level measurements from a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) system. While storing and hosting big data are certainly possible using today’s data storage technology, it is challenging to effectively and efficiently visualize and analyze the data. We consider a data analytics algorithm to mitigate some of these challenges in this work. The algorithm computes a set of generic and/or application-specific features to characterize the time series, and subsequently uses principal component analysis to project these features onto a two-dimensional space. As each time series can be represented by features, it can be treated as a single data point in the feature space, allowing many operations to become more amenable. Three applications are discussed within the overall framework, namely (1) the PV system type identification, (2) monitoring network design, and (3) anomalous string detection. The proposed framework can be easily translated to many other solar engineer applications

Repair of metallic components using hybrid manufacturing

Many high-performance metal parts users extend the service of these damaged parts by employing repair technology. Hybrid manufacturing, which includes additive manufacturing (AM) and subtractive manufacturing, provides greater build capability, better accuracy, and surface finish for component repair. However, most repair processes still rely on manual operations, which are not satisfactory in terms of time, cost, reliability, and accuracy. This dissertation aims to improve the application of hybrid manufacturing for repairing metallic components by addressing the following three research topics. The first research topic is to investigate and develop an efficient best-fit and shape adaption algorithm for automating 3D models\u27 the alignment and defect reconstruction. A multi-feature fitting algorithm and cross-section comparison method are developed. The second research topic is to develop a smooth toolpath generation method for laser metal deposition to improve the deposition quality for metallic component fabrication and repair. Smooth connections or transitions in toolpath planning are achieved to provide a constant feedrate and controllable deposition idle time for each single deposition pass. The third research topic is to develop an automated repair process could efficiently obtain the spatial information of a worn component for defect detection, alignment, and 3D scanning with the integration of stereo vision and laser displacement sensor. This dissertation investigated and developed key technologies to improve the efficiency, repair quality, precision, and automation for the repair of metallic components using hybrid manufacturing. Moreover, the research results of this dissertation can benefit a wide range of industries, such as additive manufacturing, manufacturing and measurement automation, and part inspection --Abstract, page iv