Imprecise Probability and Chance

Understanding probabilities as something other than point values (e.g., as intervals) has often been motivated by the need to find more realistic models for degree of belief, and in particular the idea that degree of belief should have an objective basis in “statistical knowledge of the world.” I offer here another motivation growing out of efforts to understand how chance evolves as a function of time. If the world is “chancy” in that there are non-trivial, objective, physical probabilities at the macro-level, then the chance of an event e that happens at a given time is e goes to one continuously or not is left open. Discontinuities in such chance trajectories can have surprising and troubling consequences for probabilistic analyses of causation and accounts of how events occur in time. This, coupled with the compelling evidence for quantum discontinuities in chance’s evolution, gives rise to a “(dis)continuity bind” with respect to chance probability trajectories. I argue that a viable option for circumventing the (dis)continuity bind is to understand the probabilities “imprecisely,” that is, as intervals rather than point values. I then develop and motivate an alternative kind of continuity appropriate for interval-valued chance probability trajectories

Defining block character

In this paper I propose a clear, efficient, and accurate method for determining if a block of contiguous buildings has an overall character. The work is needed because most contemporary design reviews presuppose the existence of visual character, but existing design principles are often too vague to make the required determination. Clarity is achieved by shifting from vague notions to a definite concept for block character: a design feature will be perceived as part of the overall character of that block if the frequency of the feature is greater than a critical threshold. An experiment suggested that the critical frequency was quite high: over 80%. A case history illustrates how the new concept of visual character could greatly increase the efficiency and accuracy of actual planning decisions.

Suppression of dephasing by qubit motion in superconducting circuits

We suggest and demonstrate a protocol which suppresses dephasing due to the low-frequency noise by qubit motion, i.e., transfer of the logical qubit of information in a system of $n \geq 2$ physical qubits. The protocol requires only the nearest-neighbor coupling and is applicable to different qubit structures. We further analyze its effectiveness against noises with arbitrary correlations. Our analysis, together with experiments using up to three superconducting qubits, shows that for the realistic uncorrelated noises, qubit motion increases the dephasing time of the logical qubit as $\sqrt{n}$. In general, the protocol provides a diagnostic tool to measure the noise correlations.Comment: 5 pages with 3 embedded figures, plus supplementary informatio