Debating Space Security: Capabilities and Vulnerabilities

The U.S. position in the debate on space security has been that (1) space-based systems could be developed and used to obtain decisive warghting superiority over an adversary, and (2) these space-based systems, because they might give such an inordinate advantage over any adversary, will be attacked. The Russians and Chinese, in contrast, claim to be threatened by U.S. aspirations in space but deny that they pose a serious threat to U.S. space-based systems. They view the development of advanced military space systems by the United States as evidence of a growing gap of military capabilities limited only by technological--not political--constraints. They argue that U.S. missile defense systems operating in coordination with advanced satellite sensors would weaken their nuclear retaliatory potential. This dissertation argues that the positions held by both of these parties are more extreme than warranted. An analytical evaluation quickly narrows the touted capabilities and assumed vulnerabilities of space systems to a much smaller set of concerns that can be addressed by collaboration. Chapter 2: Operationally Responsive Space (ORS): Is 24/7 Warghter Support Feasible? demonstrates the infeasibility of dramatically increasing U.S. warfighting superiority by using satellites. Chapter 3: What Can be Achieved by Attacking Satellites? makes the case that although U.S. armed forces rely extensively on its satellite infrastructure, that does not immediately make them desirable targets. The functions performed by military satellites are diffused among large constellations with redundancies. Also, some of the functions performed by these satellites can be substituted for by other terrestrial and aerial systems. Chapter 4: The Limits of Chinese Anti-Satellite Missiles demonstrates that anti-satellite (ASAT) intercepts are very complex under realistic conditions and that a potential adversary with space capabilities comparable to China's has very limited capability to use ASATs in a real-world battle scenario. Finally, in order to evaluate the chief concern raised by the Russians and Chinese, chapter 5: Satellites, Missile Defense and Space Security simulates a boost-phase missile defense system cued by the advanced Space Tracking and Surveillance (STSS) sensors. It demonstrates that even under best case assumptions, the STSS sensors are not good enough for the boost-phase missile defense system to successfully intercept and destroy an ICBM. Together, these chapters aim to narrow the contentions in the debate on space security thereby fostering the international colloboration and data sharing needed to ensure safe operations in space

Satellite constellation design for mid-course ballistic missile intercept

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2004.Includes bibliographical references (p. 223-228).This thesis will establish a conceptual approach to the design of constellations for satellite-based mid-course missile defense. The ballistic missile intercept problem leads to a new paradigm of coverage where interceptor "reachability" replaces line-of-sight coverage. Interceptors in this concept are limited in their time of flight and AV capabilities. Classical design approaches, based on ground coverage, are employed to provide a priori constellations for ballistic missile defense from a postulated North Korean attack. Both symmetric and asymmetric constellation types, designed for Earth coverage, provide bounds on the number of satellites required. A detailed parametric analysis is used to explore the constellation design space. Various constellation types are optimized to maximize missile defense coverage. Both genetic algorithms and gradient-based optimization techniques are employed. Satellite-based mid-course ballistic missile defense from a regional threat is achievable with as few as 21 satellites. Additional constellation intercept statistics, such as: the number of intercepts per missile, and interceptor closing velocities, are compiled to provide a lethality index. The effective capabilities of these constellations to defend CONUS, beyond the original regional threat, are also explored. It will be demonstrated that the constellations constructed in this work are capable of providing defense from an array of threatening states about the globe. This research illustrates how known design methods and astrodynamics techniques can be used to create new and viable methods of space-based missile defense.by Luke Michael Sauter.S.M

Guidance and control for defense systems against ballistic threats

A defense system against ballistic threat is a very complex system from the engineering point of view. It involves different kinds of subsystems and, at the same time, it presents very strict requirements. Technology evolution drives the need of constantly upgrading system’s capabilities. The guidance and control fields are two of the areas with the best progress possibilities. This thesis deals with the guidance and control problems involved in a defense system against ballistic threats. This study was undertaken by analyzing the mission of an intercontinental ballistic missile. Trajectory reconstruction from radar and satellite measurements was carried out with an estimation algorithm for nonlinear systems. Knowing the trajectory is a prerequisite for intercepting the ballistic missile. Interception takes place thanks to a dedicated tactical missile. The guidance and control of this missile were also studied in this work. Particular attention was paid on the estimation of engagement’s variables inside the homing loop. Interceptor missiles are usually equipped with a seeker that provides the angle under which the interceptor sees its target. This single measurement does not guarantee the observability of the variables required by advanced guidance laws such as APN, OGL, or differential games-based laws. A new guidance strategy was proposed, that solves the bad observability problems and returns satisfactory engagement performances. The thesis is concluded by a study of the interceptor most suitable aerodynamic configuration in order to implement the proposed strategy, and by the relative autopilot design. The autopilot implements the lateral acceleration commands from the guidance system. The design was carried out with linear control techniques, considering requirements on the rising time, actuators maximum effort, and response to a bang-bang guidance command. The analysis of the proposed solutions was carried on by means of numerical simulations, developed for each single case-study

Incomplete Information Pursuit-Evasion Games with Applications to Spacecraft Rendezvous and Missile Defense

Pursuit-evasion games reside at the intersection of game theory and optimal control theory. They are often referred to as differential games because the dynamics of the relative system are modeled by the pursuer and evader differential equations of motion. Pursuit-evasion games diverge from traditional optimal control problems due to the participation of multiple intelligent agents with conflicting goals. Individual goals of each agent are defined through multiple cost functions and determine how each player will behave throughout the game. The optimal performance of each player is dependent upon how much knowledge they have about themselves, their opponent, and the system. Complete information games represent the ideal case in which each player can truly play optimally because all pertinent information about the game is readily available to each player. Player performance in a pursuit-evasion game greatly diminishes as information availability moves further from the ideal case and approaches the most realistic scenarios. Methods to maintain satisfactory performance in the presence of incomplete, imperfect, and uncertain information games is very desirable due to the application of optimal pursuit-evasion solutions to high-risk missions including spacecraft rendezvous and missile interception. Behavior learning techniques can be used to estimate the strategy of an opponent and augment the pursuit-evasion game into a one-sided optimal control problem. The application of behavior learning is identified in final-time-fixed, in finite-horizon, and final-time-free situations. A twostep dynamic inversion process is presented to fit systems with nonlinear kinematics and dynamics into the behavior learning framework for continuous, linear-quadratic games. These techniques are applied to minimum-time, spacecraft reorientation, and missile interception examples to illustrate the advantage of these techniques in real-world applications when essential information is unavailable

Defenses in Dispute: The Bureaucratic and Domestic Politics of the First Anti-Ballistic Missile Debate

Since the dawn of the missile age in the mid-1940s, policymakers have grappled with the question of whether and how to defend against ballistic missiles. The saga of the rise of the United States’ first anti-ballistic missile system, known initially as Sentinel and later as Safeguard, and its subsequent demise after the signing of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 1972, has been well cataloged by historians and strategic thinkers. Although many scholars present the story of this ABM system as the logical and inexorable consequence of the acceptance of deterrence theory and mutual vulnerability by the U.S and the Soviet Union, I argue it was instead the product of a remarkably dynamic and contingent process. The combination of intense interagency and intercabinet debates on ABM, synthesized with the peculiar domestic politics of the arms race, help explain this complex story. Examining disputes within the executive branch in the context of foreign policy and domestic politics can help shed light on this process and how this resolution came about, making extensive use of publicly available and declassified documents

An Inference about Interference: A Surprising Application of Existing International Law to Inhibit Anti-Satellite Weapons

This article presents a thesis that most readers will find surprising, in an effort to develop a novel, simultaneous solution to three urgent, complex problems related to outer space. The three problems are: a) the technical fact that debris in outer space (the accumulated orbital junk produced by decades of space activities) has grown to present a serious hazard to safe and effective exploration and exploitation of space; b) the strategic fact that many countries (notably the United States, China and Russia, but others, too) continue to demonstrate a misguided interest in pursuing anti-satellite weapons, which can jeopardize the security of space; and c) the political fact that attempts to provide additional legal regulation of outer space (via new bilateral or multilateral international agreements) have failed, with little prospect for prompt conclusion of meaningful new accords. The proposed solution is to adapt existing international law in an unforeseen way. Specifically, numerous current and historical arms control treaties provide for verification of parties’ compliance via “national technical means” (NTM) of verification, which prominently include satellite-based sensory and communications systems. These treaties routinely provide protection for those essential space assets by requiring parties to undertake “not to interfere” with NTM. The argument developed here is that additional tests in space of debris-creating anti-satellite weapons would already be illegal, even without the conclusion of any dedicated new treaty against further weaponization of space, because in the current crowded conditions of space, a new cloud of orbital debris would, sooner or later, impermissibly interfere with NTM satellites. If sustained, this thesis can provide a new rationale for opposition to the development, testing, and use of anti-satellite weapons. It a legal reinforcement for the political instincts to avoid activities that further undercut the optimal usability of outer space, and it demonstrates how creative re-interpretation of existing legal provisions can promote the advancement of the rule of international law, even in circumstances where the articulation of new treaties is blocked

'What's a Heaven For?' National Public Culture's Role in Shaping US Space Policy, 1957-61

While cultural tenets exert strong impact on defense policy and doctrine, these ideas are crucially distilled and adjusted by people and institutions, and other opinion seek to influence the minds and actions of these bodies. Culture can be seen as the aggregate attitudes, practices, and values of a particular group of people. These, and perceived circumstances, determine the tenets or ideas which will resonate with a society. Culture is both learned and taught, so it adapts and is continuously contested. Dwight Eisenhower's employment of airpower and nuclear weapon technology complemented dominant tenets in US culture up to Sputnik. But Soviet space accomplishments prompted elites amongst the media and the Air Force to promote the idea of "aerospace" as a continuous realm to be explored and protected through technological advance and armed Air Force presence, and the Eisenhower Administration struggled for the remainder of his administration to control space policy and the contours of the culturally induced faith in technology. The Dynamic Soarer, the Air Force's flagship project envisioning a space-to-earth bomber, represents an essential part of the history of US space development. From the Air Force preparation for "Dyna Soar" spun off the first iconic element of the US space program - the Mercury ballistic capsule. Dyna Soar was seen as a rival to Apollo in 1961, and afterward as a precursor to the shuttle. Understanding its history and place in this critical period helps provide a more complete understanding of the US space program. Eisenhower officials sought to impede Dyna Soar development and the President sought to calm the nation so that it would again ratify his employment of technology for massive retaliation (and secret reconnaissance) without leading to an arms race in space. Candidate, and ultimately President John Kennedy, aimed to galvanize political support by embracing noisy calls for a space adventure. He then gradually shifted the emphasis and direction of the adventure on which the nation embarked

Exoatmospheric ballistic missile defense : a technical overview

Includes bibliographical reference

Astronautics and aeronautics, 1963 chronology on science, technology, and policy

Chronological compilation of events relating to space exploration and exploitatio

Space Systems: Emerging Technologies and Operations

SPACE SYSTEMS: EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND OPERATIONS is our seventh textbook in a series covering the world of UASs / CUAS/ UUVs. Other textbooks in our series are Drone Delivery of CBNRECy – DEW Weapons: Emerging Threats of Mini-Weapons of Mass Destruction and Disruption (WMDD); Disruptive Technologies with applications in Airline, Marine, Defense Industries; Unmanned Vehicle Systems & Operations On Air, Sea, Land; Counter Unmanned Aircraft Systems Technologies and Operations; Unmanned Aircraft Systems in the Cyber Domain: Protecting USA’s Advanced Air Assets, 2nd edition; and Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the Cyber Domain Protecting USA\u27s Advanced Air Assets, 1st edition. Our previous six titles have received considerable global recognition in the field. (Nichols & Carter, 2022) (Nichols et al., 2021) (Nichols R. K. et al., 2020) (Nichols R. et al., 2020) (Nichols R. et al., 2019) (Nichols R. K., 2018) Our seventh title takes on a new purview of Space. Let\u27s think of Space as divided into four regions. These are Planets, solar systems, the great dark void (which fall into the purview of astronomers and astrophysics), and the Dreamer Region. The earth, from a measurement standpoint, is the baseline of Space. It is the purview of geographers, engineers, scientists, politicians, and romantics. Flying high above the earth are Satellites. Military and commercial organizations govern their purview. The lowest altitude at which air resistance is low enough to permit a single complete, unpowered orbit is approximately 80 miles (125 km) above the earth\u27s surface. Normal Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite launches range between 99 miles (160 km) to 155 miles (250 km). Satellites in higher orbits experience less drag and can remain in Space longer in service. Geosynchronous orbit is around 22,000 miles (35,000 km). However, orbits can be even higher. UASs (Drones) have a maximum altitude of about 33,000 ft (10 km) because rotating rotors become physically limiting. (Nichols R. et al., 2019) Recreational drones fly at or below 400 ft in controlled airspace (Class B, C, D, E) and are permitted with prior authorization by using a LAANC or DroneZone. Recreational drones are permitted to fly at or below 400 ft in Class G (uncontrolled) airspace. (FAA, 2022) However, between 400 ft and 33,000 ft is in the purview of DREAMERS. In the DREAMERS region, Space has its most interesting technological emergence. We see emerging technologies and operations that may have profound effects on humanity. This is the mission our book addresses. We look at the Dreamer Region from three perspectives:1) a Military view where intelligence, jamming, spoofing, advanced materials, and hypersonics are in play; 2) the Operational Dreamer Region; whichincludes Space-based platform vulnerabilities, trash, disaster recovery management, A.I., manufacturing, and extended reality; and 3) the Humanitarian Use of Space technologies; which includes precision agriculture wildlife tracking, fire risk zone identification, and improving the global food supply and cattle management. Here’s our book’s breakdown: SECTION 1 C4ISR and Emerging Space Technologies. C4ISR stands for Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance. Four chapters address the military: Current State of Space Operations; Satellite Killers and Hypersonic Drones; Space Electronic Warfare, Jamming, Spoofing, and ECD; and the challenges of Manufacturing in Space. SECTION 2: Space Challenges and Operations covers in five chapters a wide purview of challenges that result from operations in Space, such as Exploration of Key Infrastructure Vulnerabilities from Space-Based Platforms; Trash Collection and Tracking in Space; Leveraging Space for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management; Bio-threats to Agriculture and Solutions From Space; and rounding out the lineup is a chapter on Modelling, Simulation, and Extended Reality. SECTION 3: Humanitarian Use of Space Technologies is our DREAMERS section. It introduces effective use of Drones and Precision Agriculture; and Civilian Use of Space for Environmental, Wildlife Tracking, and Fire Risk Zone Identification. SECTION 3 is our Hope for Humanity and Positive Global Change. Just think if the technologies we discuss, when put into responsible hands, could increase food production by 1-2%. How many more millions of families could have food on their tables? State-of-the-Art research by a team of fifteen SMEs is incorporated into our book. We trust you will enjoy reading it as much as we have in its writing. There is hope for the future.https://newprairiepress.org/ebooks/1047/thumbnail.jp