Optimizing dynamic investment decisions for railway systems protection

Past and recent events have shown that railway infrastructure systems are particularly vulnerable to natural catastrophes, unintentional accidents and terrorist attacks. Protection investments are instrumental in reducing economic losses and preserving public safety. A systematic approach to plan security investments is paramount to guarantee that limited protection resources are utilized in the most efficient manner. In this article, we present an optimization model to identify the railway assets which should be protected to minimize the impact of worst case disruptions on passenger flows. We consider a dynamic investment problem where protection resources become available over a planning horizon. The problem is formulated as a bilevel mixed-integer model and solved using two different decomposition approaches. Random instances of different sizes are generated to compare the solution algorithms. The model is then tested on the Kent railway network to demonstrate how the results can be used to support efficient protection decisions

Locating and Protecting Facilities Subject to Random Disruptions and Attacks

Recent events such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan have revealed the vulnerability of networks such as supply chains to disruptive events. In particular, it has become apparent that the failure of a few elements of an infrastructure system can cause a system-wide disruption. Thus, it is important to learn more about which elements of infrastructure systems are most critical and how to protect an infrastructure system from the effects of a disruption. This dissertation seeks to enhance the understanding of how to design and protect networked infrastructure systems from disruptions by developing new mathematical models and solution techniques and using them to help decision-makers by discovering new decision-making insights. Several gaps exist in the body of knowledge concerning how to design and protect networks that are subject to disruptions. First, there is a lack of insights on how to make equitable decisions related to designing networks subject to disruptions. This is important in public-sector decision-making where it is important to generate solutions that are equitable across multiple stakeholders. Second, there is a lack of models that integrate system design and system protection decisions. These models are needed so that we can understand the benefit of integrating design and protection decisions. Finally, most of the literature makes several key assumptions: 1) protection of infrastructure elements is perfect, 2) an element is either fully protected or fully unprotected, and 3) after a disruption facilities are either completely operational or completely failed. While these may be reasonable assumptions in some contexts, there may exist contexts in which these assumptions are limiting. There are several difficulties with filling these gaps in the literature. This dissertation describes the discovery of mathematical formulations needed to fill these gaps as well as the identification of appropriate solution strategies

A Holistic Approach to Service Survivability

We present SABER (Survivability Architecture: Block, Evade, React), a proposed survivability architecture that blocks, evades and reacts to a variety of attacks by using several security and survivability mechanisms in an automated and coordinated fashion. Contrary to the ad hoc manner in which contemporary survivable systems are built--using isolated, independent security mechanisms such as firewalls, intrusion detection systems and software sandboxes--SABER integrates several different technologies in an attempt to provide a unified framework for responding to the wide range of attacks malicious insiders and outsiders can launch. This coordinated multi-layer approach will be capable of defending against attacks targeted at various levels of the network stack, such as congestion-based DoS attacks, software-based DoS or code-injection attacks, and others. Our fundamental insight is that while multiple lines of defense are useful, most conventional, uncoordinated approaches fail to exploit the full range of available responses to incidents. By coordinating the response, the ability to survive even in the face of successful security breaches increases substantially. We discuss the key components of SABER, how they will be integrated together, and how we can leverage on the promising results of the individual components to improve survivability in a variety of coordinated attack scenarios. SABER is currently in the prototyping stages, with several interesting open research topics

Nature-inspired survivability: Prey-inspired survivability countermeasures for cloud computing security challenges

As cloud computing environments become complex, adversaries have become highly sophisticated and unpredictable. Moreover, they can easily increase attack power and persist longer before detection. Uncertain malicious actions, latent risks, Unobserved or Unobservable risks (UUURs) characterise this new threat domain. This thesis proposes prey-inspired survivability to address unpredictable security challenges borne out of UUURs. While survivability is a well-addressed phenomenon in non-extinct prey animals, applying prey survivability to cloud computing directly is challenging due to contradicting end goals. How to manage evolving survivability goals and requirements under contradicting environmental conditions adds to the challenges. To address these challenges, this thesis proposes a holistic taxonomy which integrate multiple and disparate perspectives of cloud security challenges. In addition, it proposes the TRIZ (Teorija Rezbenija Izobretatelskib Zadach) to derive prey-inspired solutions through resolving contradiction. First, it develops a 3-step process to facilitate interdomain transfer of concepts from nature to cloud. Moreover, TRIZ’s generic approach suggests specific solutions for cloud computing survivability. Then, the thesis presents the conceptual prey-inspired cloud computing survivability framework (Pi-CCSF), built upon TRIZ derived solutions. The framework run-time is pushed to the user-space to support evolving survivability design goals. Furthermore, a target-based decision-making technique (TBDM) is proposed to manage survivability decisions. To evaluate the prey-inspired survivability concept, Pi-CCSF simulator is developed and implemented. Evaluation results shows that escalating survivability actions improve the vitality of vulnerable and compromised virtual machines (VMs) by 5% and dramatically improve their overall survivability. Hypothesis testing conclusively supports the hypothesis that the escalation mechanisms can be applied to enhance the survivability of cloud computing systems. Numeric analysis of TBDM shows that by considering survivability preferences and attitudes (these directly impacts survivability actions), the TBDM method brings unpredictable survivability information closer to decision processes. This enables efficient execution of variable escalating survivability actions, which enables the Pi-CCSF’s decision system (DS) to focus upon decisions that achieve survivability outcomes under unpredictability imposed by UUUR

Optimization of Airfield Parking and Fuel Asset Dispersal to Maximize Survivability and Mission Capability Level

While the US focus for the majority of the past two decades has been on combatting insurgency and promoting stability in Southwest Asia, strategic focus is beginning to shift toward concerns of conflict with a near-peer state. Such conflict brings with it the risk of ballistic missile attack on air bases. With 26 conflicts worldwide in the past 100 years including attacks on air bases, new doctrine and modeling capacity are needed to enable the Department of Defense to continue use of vulnerable bases during conflict involving ballistic missiles. Several models have been developed to date for Air Force strategic planning use, but these models have limited use on a tactical level or for civil engineer use. This thesis presents the development of a novel model capable of identifying base layout characteristics for aprons and fuel depots to maximize dispersal and minimize impact on sortie generation times during normal operations. This model is implemented using multi-objective genetic algorithms to identify solutions that provide optimal tradeoffs between competing objectives and is assessed using an application example. These capabilities are expected to assist military engineers in the layout of parking plans and fuel depots that ensure maximum resilience while providing minimal impact to the user while enabling continued sortie generation in a contested region

False data injection attack detection in smart grid

Smart grid is a distributed and autonomous energy delivery infrastructure that constantly monitors the operational state of its overall network using smart techniques and state estimation. State estimation is a powerful technique that is used to determine the overall operational state of the system based on a limited set of measurements collected through metering systems. Cyber-attacks pose serious risks to a smart grid state estimation that can cause disruptions and power outages resulting in huge economical losses and are therefore a big concern to a reliable national grid operation. False data injection attacks (FDIAs), engineered on the basis of the knowledge of the network configuration, are difficult to detect using the traditional data detection mechanisms. These detection schemes have been found vulnerable and failed to detect these FDIAs. FDIAs specifically target the state data and can manipulate the state measurements in such a way that these false measurements appear real to the main control systems. This research work explores the possibility of FDIA detection using state estimation in a distributed and partitioned smart grid. In order to detect FDIAs we use measurements for residual-based testing which creates an objective function; and the probability of erroneous data is determined from this residual test. In this test, a preset threshold is determined based on the prior history of the state data. FDIA cases are simulated within a smart grid considering that the Chi-square detection state estimator fails in identifying such attacks. We compute the objective function using the standard weighted least problem and then test the objective function against the value in the Chi-square table. The gain matrix and the Jacobian matrix are computed. The state variables are computed in the form of a voltage magnitude. The state variables are computed after the inception of an attack to assess these state magnitude results. Different sizes of partitioning are used to improve the overall sensitivity of the Chi-square results. Our additional estimator is based on a Kalman estimation that consists of the state prediction and state correction steps. In the first step, it obtains the state and matrix covariance prediction, and in the second step, it calculates the Kalman gain and the state and matrix covariance update steps. The set of points is created for the state vector x at a time instant t. The initial vector and covariance matrix are based on a priori knowledge of the historical estimates. A set of sigma points is estimated by the state update function. Sigma points refer to the minimal set of sampling points that are selected and transformed using nonlinear function, and the new mean and the covariance are formed out of these transformed points. The idea behind this is that it is easier to compute a Gaussian distribution than an arbitrary nonlinear function. The filter gain, the mean and the covariance are used to estimate the next state. Our simulation results show that the combination of Kalman estimation and distributed state estimation improves the overall stability index and vulnerability assessment score of the smart grid. We built a stability index table for a smart grid based on the state estimates value after the inception of an FDIA. The vulnerability assessment score of the smart grid is based on common vulnerability scoring system (CVSS) and state estimates under the influence of an FDIA. The simulations are conducted in the MATPOWER program and different electrical bus systems such as IEEE 14, 30, 39, 118 and 300 are tested. All the contributions have been published in reputable journals and conferences.Doctor of Philosoph