24,062 research outputs found
Reinforcement Learning Based on Real-Time Iteration NMPC
Reinforcement Learning (RL) has proven a stunning ability to learn optimal
policies from data without any prior knowledge on the process. The main
drawback of RL is that it is typically very difficult to guarantee stability
and safety. On the other hand, Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) is an
advanced model-based control technique which does guarantee safety and
stability, but only yields optimality for the nominal model. Therefore, it has
been recently proposed to use NMPC as a function approximator within RL. While
the ability of this approach to yield good performance has been demonstrated,
the main drawback hindering its applicability is related to the computational
burden of NMPC, which has to be solved to full convergence. In practice,
however, computationally efficient algorithms such as the Real-Time Iteration
(RTI) scheme are deployed in order to return an approximate NMPC solution in
very short time. In this paper we bridge this gap by extending the existing
theoretical framework to also cover RL based on RTI NMPC. We demonstrate the
effectiveness of this new RL approach with a nontrivial example modeling a
challenging nonlinear system subject to stochastic perturbations with the
objective of optimizing an economic cost.Comment: accepted for the IFAC World Congress 202
Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis
We study the rejection of the expectations hypothesis within a New Keynesian business cycle model. Earlier research has shown that the Lucas general equilibrium asset pricing model can account for neither sign nor magnitude of average risk premia in forward prices, and is unable to explain rejection of the expectations hypothesis. We show that a New Keynesian model with habit-formation preferences and a monetary policy feedback rule produces an upward-sloping average term structure of interest rates, procyclical interest rates, and countercyclical term spreads. In the model, as in U.S. data, inverted term structure predicts recessions. Most importantly, a New Keynesian model is able to account for rejections of the expectations hypothesis. Contrary to earlier work, we identify systematic monetary policy as a key factor behind this result. Rejection of the expectation hypothesis can be entirely explained by the volatility of just two real shocks which affect technology and preferences.term structure of interest rates; monetary policy; sticky prices; habit formation; expectations hypothesis
Data-driven Economic NMPC using Reinforcement Learning
Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a powerful tool to perform data-driven optimal
control without relying on a model of the system. However, RL struggles to
provide hard guarantees on the behavior of the resulting control scheme. In
contrast, Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) and Economic NMPC (ENMPC)
are standard tools for the closed-loop optimal control of complex systems with
constraints and limitations, and benefit from a rich theory to assess their
closed-loop behavior. Unfortunately, the performance of (E)NMPC hinges on the
quality of the model underlying the control scheme. In this paper, we show that
an (E)NMPC scheme can be tuned to deliver the optimal policy of the real system
even when using a wrong model. This result also holds for real systems having
stochastic dynamics. This entails that ENMPC can be used as a new type of
function approximator within RL. Furthermore, we investigate our results in the
context of ENMPC and formally connect them to the concept of dissipativity,
which is central for the ENMPC stability. Finally, we detail how these results
can be used to deploy classic RL tools for tuning (E)NMPC schemes. We apply
these tools on both a classical linear MPC setting and a standard nonlinear
example from the ENMPC literature
Causally Regularized Learning with Agnostic Data Selection Bias
Most of previous machine learning algorithms are proposed based on the i.i.d.
hypothesis. However, this ideal assumption is often violated in real
applications, where selection bias may arise between training and testing
process. Moreover, in many scenarios, the testing data is not even available
during the training process, which makes the traditional methods like transfer
learning infeasible due to their need on prior of test distribution. Therefore,
how to address the agnostic selection bias for robust model learning is of
paramount importance for both academic research and real applications. In this
paper, under the assumption that causal relationships among variables are
robust across domains, we incorporate causal technique into predictive modeling
and propose a novel Causally Regularized Logistic Regression (CRLR) algorithm
by jointly optimize global confounder balancing and weighted logistic
regression. Global confounder balancing helps to identify causal features,
whose causal effect on outcome are stable across domains, then performing
logistic regression on those causal features constructs a robust predictive
model against the agnostic bias. To validate the effectiveness of our CRLR
algorithm, we conduct comprehensive experiments on both synthetic and real
world datasets. Experimental results clearly demonstrate that our CRLR
algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art methods, and the interpretability of
our method can be fully depicted by the feature visualization.Comment: Oral paper of 2018 ACM Multimedia Conference (MM'18
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