Optimization-based selection of influential agents in a rural Afghan social network

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Operations Research Center, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 177-185).This work considers the nonlethal targeting assignment problem in counterinsurgency in Afghanistan, the problem of deciding on the people whom US forces should engage through outreach, negotiations, meetings, and other interactions in order to ultimately win the support of the population in their area of operations. We developed three models: 1) the Afghan COIN social influence model, to represent how attitudes of local leaders are affected by repeated interactions with other local leaders, insurgents, and counter-insurgents, 2) the network generation model, to arrive at a reasonable representation of a Pashtun district-level, opinion leader social network, and 3) the nonlethal targeting model, a nonlinear programming (NLP) optimization formulation that identifies the k US agent assignment strategy producing the greatest arithmetic mean of the expected long-term attitude of the population. We demonstrate in experiments the merits of the optimization model in nonlethal targeting, which performs significantly better than both doctrine-based and random methods of assignment in a large network.by Benjamin W. K. Hung.S.M

Finding optimal strategies for influencing social networks in two player games

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Operations Research Center, June 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 141).This thesis considers the problem of optimally influencing social networks in Afghanistan as part of ongoing counterinsurgency efforts. The social network is analyzed using a discrete time agent based model. Each agent has a belief [-0.5,0.5] and interacts stochastically pairwise with their neighbors. The network converges to a set of equilibrium beliefs in expectation. A 2-player game is formulated in which the players control a set of stubborn agents whose beliefs never change, and who wield significant influence in the network. Each player chooses how to connect their stubborn agents to maximally influence the network. Two different payoff functions are defined, and the pure Nash equilibrium strategy profiles are found in a series of test networks. Finding equilibrium strategy profiles can be difficult for large networks due to exponential increases in the strategy space but a simulated annealing heuristic is used to rapidly find equilibria using best response dynamics. We demonstrate through experimentation that the games formulated admit pure Nash equilibrium strategy profiles and that best response dynamics can be used to find them. We also test a scenario based on the author's experience in Afghanistan to show how nonsymmetric equilibria can naturally emerge if each player weights the value of agents in the network differently.by Nicholas J Howard.S.M

Belief propagation analysis in 2-player games for peer-influence social networks

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Operations Research Center, 2012.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 152-153).This thesis considers approaches to influencing population opinions during counterinsurgency efforts in Afghanistan. A discrete time, agent-based threshold model is developed to analyze the propagation of beliefs in the social network, whereby each agent has a belief and a threshold value, which indicts the willingness to be influenced by the peers. Agents communicate in stochastic pairwise interactions with their neighbors. A dynamic, two player game is formulated whereby each player strategically controls the placement of one stubborn agent over time in order to maximally influence the network according to one of two different payoff functions. The stubborn agents have opposite, immutable beliefs and exert significant influence in the network. We demonstrate the characteristics of strategies chosen by the players to improve their payoffs through simulation. Determining strategies for the players in large, complex networks in which each stubborn agent has multiple connections is difficult due to exponential increases in the strategy space that is searched. We implement two heuristic methods which are shown to significantly reduce the run time needed to find strategies without significantly reducing the quality of the strategies. Lastly, we introduce population-focused actions, such as economic stimulus projects, which when used by the players result in long-lasting changes in the beliefs of the agents in the network.by Matthew E. Bradwick.S.M

Identifying Influential Agents In Social Systems

This dissertation addresses the problem of influence maximization in social networks. In- fluence maximization is applicable to many types of real-world problems, including modeling contagion, technology adoption, and viral marketing. Here we examine an advertisement domain in which the overarching goal is to find the influential nodes in a social network, based on the network structure and the interactions, as targets of advertisement. The assumption is that advertisement budget limits prevent us from sending the advertisement to everybody in the network. Therefore, a wise selection of the people can be beneficial in increasing the product adoption. To model these social systems, agent-based modeling, a powerful tool for the study of phenomena that are difficult to observe within the confines of the laboratory, is used. To analyze marketing scenarios, this dissertation proposes a new method for propagating information through a social system and demonstrates how it can be used to develop a product advertisement strategy in a simulated market. We consider the desire of agents toward purchasing an item as a random variable and solve the influence maximization problem in steady state using an optimization method to assign the advertisement of available products to appropriate messenger agents. Our market simulation 1) accounts for the effects of group membership on agent attitudes 2) has a network structure that is similar to realistic human systems 3) models inter-product preference correlations that can be learned from market data. The results on synthetic data show that this method is significantly better than network analysis methods based on centrality measures. The optimized influence maximization (OIM) described above, has some limitations. For instance, it relies on a global estimation of the interaction among agents in the network, rendering it incapable of handling large networks. Although OIM is capable of finding the influential nodes in the social network in an optimized way and targeting them for advertising, in large networks, performing the matrix operations required to find the optimized solution is intractable. To overcome this limitation, we then propose a hierarchical influence maximization (HIM) iii algorithm for scaling influence maximization to larger networks. In the hierarchical method the network is partitioned into multiple smaller networks that can be solved exactly with optimization techniques, assuming a generalized IC model, to identify a candidate set of seed nodes. The candidate nodes are used to create a distance-preserving abstract version of the network that maintains an aggregate influence model between partitions. The budget limitation for the advertising dictates the algorithm’s stopping point. On synthetic datasets, we show that our method comes close to the optimal node selection, at substantially lower runtime costs. We present results from applying the HIM algorithm to real-world datasets collected from social media sites with large numbers of users (Epinions, SlashDot, and WikiVote) and compare it with two benchmarks, PMIA and DegreeDiscount, to examine the scalability and performance. Our experimental results reveal that HIM scales to larger networks but is outperformed by degreebased algorithms in highly-connected networks. However, HIM performs well in modular networks where the communities are clearly separable with small number of cross-community edges. This finding suggests that for practical applications it is useful to account for network properties when selecting an influence maximization method

Parameters Summer 2021

The US Army War College Quarterly, Parameters, is a refereed forum for contemporary strategy and Landpower issues. It furthers the education and professional development of senior military officers and members of government and academia concerned with national security affairs

Compilation of thesis abstracts, June 2007

NPS Class of June 2007This quarter’s Compilation of Abstracts summarizes cutting-edge, security-related research conducted by NPS students and presented as theses, dissertations, and capstone reports. Each expands knowledge in its field.http://archive.org/details/compilationofsis109452750

フィリピンにおける民軍作戦 (CMO) : 過去及び現在の戦場管理に関する考察

早大学位記番号:新6419早稲田大

Compilation of Abstracts, December 2013

NPS Class of December 2013This publication, Compilation of Abstracts, contains abstracts of unrestricted dissertations, theses, and capstone project reports submitted for the doctor of philosophy, astronautical engineer, master of arts, master of business administration, and master of science degrees for the Naval Postgraduate School’s December 2013 graduating class.http://archive.org/details/compilationofabs109456086

MODELLING & SIMULATION HYBRID WARFARE Researches, Models and Tools for Hybrid Warfare and Population Simulation

The Hybrid Warfare phenomena, which is the subject of the current research, has been framed by the work of Professor Agostino Bruzzone (University of Genoa) and Professor Erdal Cayirci (University of Stavanger), that in June 2016 created in order to inquiry the subject a dedicated Exploratory Team, which was endorsed by NATO Modelling & Simulation Group (a panel of the NATO Science & Technology organization) and established with the participation as well of the author. The author brought his personal contribution within the ET43 by introducing meaningful insights coming from the lecture of \u201cFight by the minutes: Time and the Art of War (1994)\u201d, written by Lieutenant Colonel US Army (Rtd.) Robert Leonhard; in such work, Leonhard extensively developed the concept that \u201cTime\u201d, rather than geometry of the battlefield and/or firepower, is the critical factor to tackle in military operations and by extension in Hybrid Warfare. The critical reflection about the time - both in its quantitative and qualitative dimension - in a hybrid confrontation it is addressed and studied inside SIMCJOH, a software built around challenges that imposes literally to \u201cFight by the minutes\u201d, echoing the core concept expressed in the eponymous work. Hybrid Warfare \u2013 which, by definition and purpose, aims to keep the military commitment of both aggressor and defender at the lowest - can gain enormous profit by employing a wide variety of non-military tools, turning them into a weapon, as in the case of the phenomena of \u201cweaponization of mass migrations\u201d, as it is examined in the \u201cDies Irae\u201d simulation architecture. Currently, since migration it is a very sensitive and divisive issue among the public opinions of many European countries, cynically leveraging on a humanitarian emergency caused by an exogenous, inducted migration, could result in a high level of political and social destabilization, which indeed favours the concurrent actions carried on by other hybrid tools. Other kind of disruption however, are already available in the arsenal of Hybrid Warfare, such cyber threats, information campaigns lead by troll factories for the diffusion of fake/altered news, etc. From this perspective the author examines how the TREX (Threat network simulation for REactive eXperience) simulator is able to offer insights about a hybrid scenario characterized by an intense level of social disruption, brought by cyber-attacks and systemic faking of news. Furthermore, the rising discipline of \u201cStrategic Engineering\u201d, as envisaged by Professor Agostino Bruzzone, when matched with the operational requirements to fulfil in order to counter Hybrid Threats, it brings another innovative, as much as powerful tool, into the professional luggage of the military and the civilian employed in Defence and Homeland security sectors. Hybrid is not the New War. What is new is brought by globalization paired with the transition to the information age and rising geopolitical tensions, which have put new emphasis on hybrid hostilities that manifest themselves in a contemporary way. Hybrid Warfare is a deliberate choice of an aggressor. While militarily weak nations can resort to it in order to re-balance the odds, instead military strong nations appreciate its inherent effectiveness coupled with the denial of direct responsibility, thus circumventing the rules of the International Community (IC). In order to be successful, Hybrid Warfare should consist of a highly coordinated, sapient mix of diverse and dynamic combination of regular forces, irregular forces (even criminal elements), cyber disruption etc. all in order to achieve effects across the entire DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT spectrum. However, the owner of the strategy, i.e. the aggressor, by keeping the threshold of impunity as high as possible and decreasing the willingness of the defender, can maintain his Hybrid Warfare at a diplomatically feasible level; so the model of the capacity, willingness and threshold, as proposed by Cayirci, Bruzzone and Gunneriusson (2016), remains critical to comprehend Hybrid Warfare. Its dynamicity is able to capture the evanescent, blurring line between Hybrid Warfare and Conventional Warfare. In such contest time is the critical factor: this because it is hard to foreseen for the aggressor how long he can keep up with such strategy without risking either the retaliation from the International Community or the depletion of resources across its own DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT spectrum. Similar discourse affects the defender: if he isn\u2019t able to cope with Hybrid Threats (i.e. taking no action), time works against him; if he is, he can start to develop counter narrative and address physical countermeasures. However, this can lead, in the medium long period, to an unforeseen (both for the attacker and the defender) escalation into a large, conventional, armed conflict. The performance of operations that required more than kinetic effects drove the development of DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT models and in turn this drive the development of Human Social Culture Behavior Modelling (HCSB), which should stand at the core of the Hybrid Warfare modelling and simulation efforts. Multi Layers models are fundamental to evaluate Strategies and Support Decisions: currently there are favourable conditions to implement models of Hybrid Warfare, such as Dies Irae, SIMCJOH and TREX, in order to further develop tools and war-games for studying new tactics, execute collective training and to support decisions making and analysis planning. The proposed approach is based on the idea to create a mosaic made by HLA interoperable simulators able to be combined as tiles to cover an extensive part of the Hybrid Warfare, giving the users an interactive and intuitive environment based on the \u201cModelling interoperable Simulation and Serious Game\u201d (MS2G) approach. From this point of view, the impressive capabilities achieved by IA-CGF in human behavior modeling to support population simulation as well as their native HLA structure, suggests to adopt them as core engine in this application field. However, it necessary to highlight that, when modelling DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT domains, the researcher has to be aware of the bias introduced by the fact that especially Political and Social \u201cscience\u201d are accompanied and built around value judgement. From this perspective, the models proposed by Cayirci, Bruzzone, Guinnarson (2016) and by Balaban & Mileniczek (2018) are indeed a courageous tentative to import, into the domain of particularly poorly understood phenomena (social, politics, and to a lesser degree economics - Hartley, 2016), the mathematical and statistical instruments and the methodologies employed by the pure, hard sciences. Nevertheless, just using the instruments and the methodology of the hard sciences it is not enough to obtain the objectivity, and is such aspect the representations of Hybrid Warfare mechanics could meet their limit: this is posed by the fact that they use, as input for the equations that represents Hybrid Warfare, not physical data observed during a scientific experiment, but rather observation of the reality that assumes implicitly and explicitly a value judgment, which could lead to a biased output. Such value judgement it is subjective, and not objective like the mathematical and physical sciences; when this is not well understood and managed by the academic and the researcher, it can introduce distortions - which are unacceptable for the purpose of the Science - which could be used as well to enforce a narrative mainstream that contains a so called \u201ctruth\u201d, which lies inside the boundary of politics rather than Science. Those observations around subjectivity of social sciences vs objectivity of pure sciences, being nothing new, suggest however the need to examine the problem under a new perspective, less philosophical and more leaned toward the practical application. The suggestion that the author want make here is that the Verification and Validation process, in particular the methodology used by Professor Bruzzone in doing V&V for SIMCJOH (2016) and the one described in the Modelling & Simulation User Risk Methodology (MURM) developed by Pandolfini, Youngblood et all (2018), could be applied to evaluate if there is a bias and the extent of the it, or at least making clear the value judgment adopted in developing the DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT models. Such V&V research is however outside the scope of the present work, even though it is an offspring of it, and for such reason the author would like to make further inquiries on this particular subject in the future. Then, the theoretical discourse around Hybrid Warfare has been completed addressing the need to establish a new discipline, Strategic Engineering, very much necessary because of the current a political and economic environment which allocates diminishing resources to Defense and Homeland Security (at least in Europe). However, Strategic Engineering can successfully address its challenges when coupled with the understanding and the management of the fourth dimension of military and hybrid operations, Time. For the reasons above, and as elaborated by Leonhard and extensively discussed in the present work, addressing the concern posed by Time dimension is necessary for the success of any military or Hybrid confrontation. The SIMCJOH project, examined under the above perspective, proved that the simulator has the ability to address the fourth dimension of military and non-military confrontation. In operations, Time is the most critical factor during execution, and this was successfully transferred inside the simulator; as such, SIMCJOH can be viewed as a training tool and as well a dynamic generator of events for the MEL/MIL execution during any exercise. In conclusion, SIMCJOH Project successfully faces new challenging aspects, allowed to study and develop new simulation models in order to support decision makers, Commanders and their Staff. Finally, the question posed by Leonhard in terms of recognition of the importance of time management of military operations - nowadays Hybrid Conflict - has not been answered yet; however, the author believes that Modelling and Simulation tools and techniques can represent the safe \u201ctank\u201d where innovative and advanced scientific solutions can be tested, exploiting the advantage of doing it in a synthetic environment