1,979 research outputs found

    Selection of Wood Supply Contracts to Reduce Cost in the Presence of Risks in Procurement Planning

    Get PDF
    Les activitĂ©s d'achat dans l'industrie des pĂątes et papiers reprĂ©sentent une part importante du coĂ»t global de la chaĂźne d'approvisionnement. Les dĂ©cideurs prĂ©voient l'approvisionnement en bois requis jusqu'Ă  un an Ă  l'avance afin de garantir le volume d'approvisionnement pour le processus de production en continu dans leur usine. Des contrats rĂ©guliers, flexibles et d'options avec des fournisseurs de diffĂ©rents groupes sont disponibles. Les fournisseurs sont regroupĂ©s en fonction de caractĂ©ristiques communes, telles que la propriĂ©tĂ© des terres forestiĂšres. Cependant, lors de l'exĂ©cution du plan, des risques affectent les opĂ©rations d'approvisionnement. Si les risques ne sont pas intĂ©grĂ©s dans le processus de planification des achats, l'attĂ©nuation de leur impact sera generalement coĂ»teuse et compliquĂ©e. Des contrats ad hoc coĂ»teux supplĂ©mentaires pourraient ĂȘtre nĂ©cessaires pour compenser le manque de livraisons. Pour aborder ce problĂšme dans cette thĂšse, dans un premier projet, un modĂšle mathĂ©matique dĂ©terministe des opĂ©rations d'approvisionnement est dĂ©veloppĂ©. L'objectif du modĂšle est de proposer un plan d'approvisionnement annuel pour minimiser le coĂ»t total des opĂ©rations relatives. Les opĂ©rations sont soumises Ă  des contraintes telles qu’une proportion minimale de l'offre par chaque groupe de fournisseurs, des niveaux cibles des stocks, de la satisfaction de la demande, la capacitĂ© par la cour Ă  bois et la capacitĂ© du procĂ©dĂ© de mise en copeaux. Les dĂ©cisions sont liĂ©es Ă  la sĂ©lection des contrats d'approvisionnement, Ă  l'ouverture de cour Ă  bois et aux flux du bois. Dans un deuxiĂšme projet, une Ă©valuation du plan d'approvisionnement Ă  partir du modĂšle dĂ©terministe du premier projet est effectuĂ©e en utilisant une approche de simulation Monte Carlo. Trois stratĂ©gies contractuelles diffĂ©rentes sont comparĂ©es : fixes, flexibles et une combinaison des deux types des contrats. L'approche de simulation de ce projet Ă©value la performance du plan par la valeur attendue et la variabilitĂ© du coĂ»t total, lorsque le plan est exĂ©cutĂ© pendant l'horizon de planification. Dans un troisiĂšme projet, une approche de programmation stochastique en deux Ă©tapes est utilisĂ©e pour fournir un plan d'approvisionnement fiable. L'objectif du modĂšle est de minimiser le coĂ»t prĂ©vu du plan d'approvisionnement en prĂ©sence de diffĂ©rents scĂ©narios gĂ©nĂ©rĂ©s en fonction des risques. Les dĂ©cisions lors de la premiĂšre Ă©tape sont la sĂ©lection des contrats dans la premiĂšre pĂ©riode et l'ouverture des cours Ă  bois. Les dĂ©cisions de la deuxiĂšme Ă©tape concernent la sĂ©lection des contrats commençant aprĂšs la premiĂšre pĂ©riode, les flux, l'inventaire et la production du procĂ©dĂ© de la mise en copeaux. iii L'Ă©tude de cas utilisĂ©e dans cette thĂšse est inspirĂ©e par Domtar, une entreprise des pĂątes et papiers situĂ©e au QuĂ©bec, Canada. Les rĂ©sultats des trois projets de cette thĂšse aident les dĂ©cideurs Ă  rĂ©duire les contraintes humaines liĂ©es Ă  la planification complexe des achats. Les modĂšles mathĂ©matiques dĂ©veloppĂ©s fournissent une base pour l'Ă©valuation de la stratĂ©gie d'approvisionnement sĂ©lectionnĂ©e. Cette tĂąche est presque impossible avec les approches actuelles de l'entreprise, car les Ă©valuations nĂ©cessitent la formulation de risques d'approvisionnement. L'approche de programmation stochastique montre de meilleurs rĂ©sultats financiers par rapport Ă  la planification dĂ©terministe, avec une faible variabilitĂ© dans l'attĂ©nuation de l'impact des risques.Procurement activities in the pulp and paper industry account for an important part of the overall supply chain cost. Procurement decision-makers plan for the required wood supply up to one year in advance to guarantee the supply volume for the continuous production process at their mill. Regular, flexible and option contracts with suppliers in different groups are available. Suppliers are grouped based on common characteristics such as forestland ownership. However, during the execution of the plan, sourcing risks affect procurement operations. If risks are not integrated into the procurement planning process, mitigating their impact is likely to be expensive and complicated. Additional expensive ad hoc contracts might be required to compensate for the lack of deliveries. To tackle this problem, the first project of this thesis demonstrates the development of a deterministic mathematical model of procurement operations. The objective of the model is to propose an annual procurement plan to minimize the total cost of procurement operations. The operations are subject to constraints such as the minimum share of supply for each group of suppliers, inventory target levels, demand, woodyard capacity, and chipping process capacity. The decisions are related to the selection of sourcing contracts, woodyards opening, and wood supply flow. In the second project, an evaluation of the procurement plan from the deterministic model from project one is performed by using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Three different strategies are compared as fixed, flexible, and a mix of both contracts. The simulation approach in this project evaluates the performance of the plan by the expected value and variability of the total cost when the plan is executed during the planning horizon. In the third project, a two-stage stochastic programming approach is used to provide a reliable procurement plan. The objective of the model is to minimize the expected cost of the procurement plan in the presence of different scenarios generated based on sourcing risks. First-stage decisions are the selection of contracts in the first period and the opening of woodyards. Second-stage decisions concern the selection of contracts starting after the first period, flow, inventory, and chipping process production. The case study used in this thesis was inspired by Domtar, which is a pulp and paper company located in Quebec, Canada. The results of three projects in this doctoral dissertation support decision-makers to reduce the human limitation in performing complicated procurement planning. The developed mathematical models provide a basis to evaluate the selected procurement strategy. This task is nearly impossible with current approaches in the company, as the evaluations require the formulation of v sourcing risks. The stochastic programming approach shows better financial results comparing to deterministic planning, with low variability in mitigating the impact of risks

    Application of Transaction Cost Economics to Capabilities-based Acquisition: Exploring Single Service vs. Joint Service Programs and Single Systems vs. System-of-Systems

    Get PDF
    Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program)The US Department of Defense (DoD) is in the process of radical transformation'' to a national security strategy predicated on joint Service purchases and complex System-of-Systems (SoS) capabilities. This paper contributes to a broader study that eventually needs to be conducted to evaluate the benefits and costs of increased reliance on joint Service SoS programs.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

    Risk Management: An Interdisciplinary Framework

    Get PDF
    Risk is shown to be based on both theory and practice. It is shown to be conceptual and technical, blending behavioral psychology, financial economics and decision making under uncertainty into a coherent whole that justify the selection of risky choices. Its applications are also broadly distributed across many areas and fields of interest. The examples treated here have focused on both finance, insurance and on a few problems in industrial management howeverRisk; Management; Interdisciplinarity

    Integrating independent power producers into emerging wholesale power markets

    Get PDF
    Many developing and industrial countries have sought to open their electricity industries to competition. In both contexts, policymakers and investors have to deal with the consequences of earlier, more partial sector liberalization measures. Foremost among these is the existence of long-term contracts with independent power producers (IPPs). The long-term nature of these contracts has complicated the introduction of more far-reaching sectoral reform designed to harness competitive market forces for the benefit of consumers. In developing countries, introducing competition is often coupled with breaking up and privatizing state-owned electricity monopolies. In this context, discussion of renegotiation of power purchase agreements has tended toward the polemical. At one end are those who resist any change, arguing that the"sanctity of contracts"precludes modification of contract terms. At the other end are those who favor governments taking coercive measures to modify existing contracts in the name of maximizing economic welfare and minimizing the burden of sector reform on consumers and on the state. Drawing on recent country experiences, the authors analyze alternative approaches to restructuring contracts and designing power markets to reduce rigidities and incentivize IPPs to participate more fully in wholesale power markets and to take on greater market risk. The authors conclude that forced market integration or forced contract negotiation have failed and are counterproductive. Conversely, in countries where IPPs provide a sizable proportion of generation capacity, ignoring market integration may result in insufficient market liquidity and discourage new entry, attenuating the scope for market forces to act for the benefit of consumers. Failure to adapt power purchase contracts and market rules imposes huge resource costs on the economy beyond the financial obligations consumers and taxpayers must bear. Based on recent experience, a combination of measures, including adaptation of specific market rules, contractual alternatives for enhancing market liquidity, contract buyout provisions, transitional financing mechanisms, and characteristics of the successor entity to the power purchaser, offer promising approaches for reconciling preexisting IPP contracts with new market structures and reducing the magnitude of above-market costs associated with such contracts.Markets and Market Access,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,General Technology,Labor Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,General Technology

    “Asset Partner” Service model – Challenges and Opportunities for service industry. - A case from Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS)

    Get PDF
    The oil and gas (O&G) industry is facing numerous challenges, including fluctuating oil prices, increasing regulatory pressures, and a growing demand for cleaner energy sources. To remain competitive and maximize value creation, companies must adopt customized and flexible approaches to their offshore operations and think of new solutions to solve tomorrow’s challenges. Examining the concept and implications of an Asset Partner reveals various opportunities and challenges for both operator- and service companies. In recent years, operational partnerships have emerged as a strategic solution for companies aiming to optimize their operations, minimize risks, and enhance their competitive edge. The Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) presents a unique operating environment, combining harsh climatic conditions, advanced technologies, and stringent safety and environmental standards. Operating in this challenging environment requires specialized knowledge, strong regulatory compliance, and a commitment to sustainable practices. By forming alliances with third-party service providers, O&G companies can leverage external expertise, share risks, and pool resources to achieve common objectives. While partnerships offer several benefits, there are also notable challenges in the collaboration between operator companies and oil service companies on the NCS. This thesis will examine various perspectives, including those of operator companies that typically manage their assets independently, as well as the viewpoints of oil service companies, trade unions, and governmental authorities. The thesis aims to investigate the following research questions: 1. What are the benefits and challenges of implementing an "Asset Partner" model in the Oil and Gas (O&G) industry, and how can it be used to increase competitiveness in the market? 2. How do regulations and authorities, such as the Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA) impact the implementation and success of the "Asset Partner" model in the O&G industry? 3. How does the "Asset Partner" model compare to traditional contractor and partnership models such as Technical Service Provider (TSP) model. 4. What are the specific business models and strategies that can be used to effectively implement the "Asset Partner" model in the O&G industry? A case study was conducted, involving data collection through interviews with professionals representing various roles in the industry. These included individuals from operator companies, oil service companies, trade unions, and government or regulatory authorities. The insights gathered from their responses have served as the base for addressing the research questions. The study reveals the complications and aspects related to the Asset Partner model. It provides a comprehensive understanding of the opportunities, challenges, and potential future implications of this model from the perspectives of operator companies, trade unions, oil service companies, and governmental authorities. It reveals that the Asset Partner model in the O&G industry offers the potential of significant benefits, including increased efficiency, cost savings, and access to specialized resources I terms of competence and capacity. However, challenges such as the loss of control over critical activities and potential erosion of core competencies must be carefully managed. The green transition and technological advancements can also have an impact in the future of the Asset Partner model in the future, emphasizing the need for regulatory adjustments for its sustainable implementation and alignment with environmental goals. To effectively implement the Asset Partner model, clear contractual agreements, open communication, performance monitoring, risk management, and competence development are essential. The research suggests a need for further research and collaboration among stakeholders to develop best practices, guidelines, and regulatory frameworks for the successful operation of the Asset Partner model in the O&G industry

    Between market supply and vertical integration : the role of long-term contracts in coal trade

    Get PDF

    Coal markets and hierarchies

    Get PDF
    Errata sheet inserted.In "Markets and Hierarchies" (1975) Oliver Williamson has developed a heuristic framework (Organization Failures Framework = OFF) to attack the issue of institutional borderlines between markets and firms. Below we discuss this concept and apply it to local coal markets. Differences in larger domestic and international coal markets then cast some doubts on the practical usefulness of the approach

    Essays on Portfolio Risk Management and Weather Derivatives

    Get PDF
    Denne avhandlingen handler om utvikling og praktisk implementering av risikostyringsmetoder for investeringsportefÞljer, energiportefÞljer, og hÄndtering av vÊr- og forurensningsrisiko. Avhandlingen inkluderer tre vitenskapelige artikler som hver tar for seg ulike aspekter av finansiell risikostyring. Den fÞrste fokuserer pÄ metoder for aktivaallokering nÄr det eksisterer asymmetrisk avhengighet mellom avkastningene for eiendelene i en investeringsportefÞlje. Den andre artikkelen omhandler energiprisrisikostyring, og introduserer et Äpen kildekodeverktÞy for energiportefÞljeforvaltning som er utviklet som en del av doktorgradsprosjektet. Den siste artikkelen presenterer et teoretisk rammeverk for hÄndtering av forurensningsrisiko ved hjelp av finansielle derivatkontrakter, som bygger pÄ den eksisterende teorien om vÊrderivater. Disse arbeidene bidrar alle til det overordnede temaet for avhandlingen, som er utvikling av risikostyringsmetoder for ulike typer portefÞljer og utforskingen av rollen til finansielle derivater i hÄndtering av risiko knyttet til markedspriser, vÊr og forurensning. For Ä sette bidragene inn i en teoretisk kontekst har vi inkludert et kort kapittel som presenterer alternative metoder for avhengighetsmodellering, og hvordan disse kan utnyttes nÄr man forvalter investeringsportefÞljer. Ett av disse mÄlene, lokal gaussisk korrelasjon, brukes til Ä utvide det klassiske mean-variance-rammeverket for aktivaallokering i den fÞrste artikkelen. Deretter fÞlger et kort introduksjonskapittel til spot- og forwardmarkeder for energi. Hovedfokuset her er rÄvareprisrisiko, og hvordan denne kan hÄndteres med finansielle derivatkontrakter. Vi demonstrerer hvordan forvaltning av energiportefÞljer kan gjennomfÞres med vÄrt Äpen kildekodeverktÞy ved bruk av data fra det europeiske kraftmarkedet. Til slutt inkluderes et kapittel om vÊrderivater. Dette inneholder en introduksjon til vÊrrelatert risiko, en kort introduksjon til vÊrmarkedet, vanlige kontraktstyper og alternative metoder for prising. For Ä sikre reproduserbarhet har vi ogsÄ lagt til et kapittel om programkode. Her finnes lenker til Git-repositorier med alle data og R-kode for Ä gjennomfÞre analysene som presenteres i avhandlingen.This thesis is concerned with the development and practical implementation of risk management methods for investment portfolios, energy portfolios, and weather and pollution risk. The thesis includes three scientific papers that each address different aspects of financial risk management. The first paper focuses on portfolio allocation in the presence of asymmetric dependence between asset returns. The second paper examines energy price risk management, and introduces an open source toolkit for energy portfolio management which has been developed as a part of the PhD project. The final paper present a theoretical framework for managing pollution risk using financial derivatives contracts, which builds upon the existing theory of weather derivatives. These papers all contribute to the overall theme, which is the development of risk management methods for various types of portfolios and the exploration of the role of financial derivatives in managing risks related to market prices, weather and pollution. In order to provide a theoretical context, we have included a brief chapter exploring alternative methods for dependence modelling and how these may be utilized when managing investment portfolios. One of these measures, the local Gaussian correlation, is used to extend the classical mean-variance framework for asset allocation in the first paper. Thereafter, a short introduction to spot and forward energy markets is provided. The primary focus here is commodity market price risk, and how this can be managed with financial derivatives contracts. We demonstrate how portfolio management may be performed with our open source toolkit using European energy market data. Finally, we include a chapter on weather derivatives. This contains a introduction to weather related risk, a brief introduction to the weather markets, frequently used contract types and pricing methods. To ensure reproducibility, we have also added a chapter on computer code, where the interested reader may find links to Git repositories with all data and the R code needed to run the analysis presented in the thesis.Doktorgradsavhandlin
    • 

    corecore