A novel qualitative prospective methodology to assess human error during accident sequences

Numerous theoretical models and techniques to assess human error were developed since the 60's. Most of these models were developed for the nuclear, military, and aviation sectors. These methods have the following weaknesses that limit their use in industry: the lack of analysis of underlying causal cognitive mechanisms, need of retrospective data for implementation, strong dependence on expert judgment, focus on a particular type of error, and/or analysis of operator behaviour and decision-making without considering the role of the system in such decisions. The purpose of the present research is to develop a qualitative prospective methodology that does not depend exclusively on retrospective information, that does not require expert judgment for implementation and that allows predicting potential sequences of accidents before they occur. It has been proposed for new (or existent) small and medium- scale facilities, whose processes are simple. To the best of our knowledge, a methodology that meets these requirements has not been reported in literature thus far. The methodology proposed in this study was applied to the methanol storage area of a biodiesel facility. It could predict potential sequences of accidents, through the analysis of information provided by different system devices and the study of the possible deviations of operators in decision-making. It also enabled the identification of the shortcomings in the human-machine interface and proposed an optimization of the current configuration.Fil: Calvo Olivares, Romina Daniela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ingenieria. Instituto de Capacitación Especial y Desarrollo de Ingeniería Asistida por Computadora; ArgentinaFil: Rivera, Selva Soledad. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ingenieria. Instituto de Capacitación Especial y Desarrollo de Ingeniería Asistida por Computadora; ArgentinaFil: Núñez Mc Leod, Jorge Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ingenieria. Instituto de Capacitación Especial y Desarrollo de Ingeniería Asistida por Computadora; Argentin

Inference for determinantal point processes without spectral knowledge

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are point process models that naturally encode diversity between the points of a given realization, through a positive definite kernel $K$. DPPs possess desirable properties, such as exact sampling or analyticity of the moments, but learning the parameters of kernel $K$ through likelihood-based inference is not straightforward. First, the kernel that appears in the likelihood is not $K$, but another kernel $L$ related to $K$ through an often intractable spectral decomposition. This issue is typically bypassed in machine learning by directly parametrizing the kernel $L$, at the price of some interpretability of the model parameters. We follow this approach here. Second, the likelihood has an intractable normalizing constant, which takes the form of a large determinant in the case of a DPP over a finite set of objects, and the form of a Fredholm determinant in the case of a DPP over a continuous domain. Our main contribution is to derive bounds on the likelihood of a DPP, both for finite and continuous domains. Unlike previous work, our bounds are cheap to evaluate since they do not rely on approximating the spectrum of a large matrix or an operator. Through usual arguments, these bounds thus yield cheap variational inference and moderately expensive exact Markov chain Monte Carlo inference methods for DPPs

Adaptive design of delta sigma modulators

In this thesis, a genetic algorithm based on differential evolution (DE) is used to generate delta sigma modulator (DSM) noise transfer functions (NTFs). These NTFs outperform those generated by an iterative approach described by Schreier and implemented in the delsig Matlab toolbox. Several lowpass and bandpass DSMs, as well as DSM\u27s designed specifically for and very low intermediate frequency (VLIF) receivers are designed using the algorithm developed in this thesis and compared to designs made using the delsig toolbox. The NTFs designed using the DE algorithm always have a higher dynamic range and signal to noise ratio than those designed using the delsig toolbox