Supporting group maintenance through prognostics-enhanced dynamic dependability prediction

Condition-based maintenance strategies adapt maintenance planning through the integration of online condition monitoring of assets. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these strategies can be improved by integrating prognostics predictions and grouping maintenance actions respectively. In complex industrial systems, however, effective condition-based maintenance is intricate. Such systems are comprised of repairable assets which can fail in different ways, with various effects, and typically governed by dynamics which include time-dependent and conditional events. In this context, system reliability prediction is complex and effective maintenance planning is virtually impossible prior to system deployment and hard even in the case of condition-based maintenance. Addressing these issues, this paper presents an online system maintenance method that takes into account the system dynamics. The method employs an online predictive diagnosis algorithm to distinguish between critical and non-critical assets. A prognostics-updated method for predicting the system health is then employed to yield well-informed, more accurate, condition-based suggestions for the maintenance of critical assets and for the group-based reactive repair of non-critical assets. The cost-effectiveness of the approach is discussed in a case study from the power industry

Integrating modelling of maintenance policies within a stochastic hybrid automaton framework of dynamic reliability

The dependability assessment is a crucial activity for determining the availability, safety and maintainability of a system and establishing the best mitigation measures to prevent serious flaws and process interruptions. One of the most promising methodologies for the analysis of complex systems is Dynamic Reliability (also known as DPRA) with models that define explicitly the interactions between components and variables. Among the mathematical techniques of DPRA, Stochastic Hybrid Automaton (SHA) has been used to model systems characterized by continuous and discrete variables. Recently, a DPRA-oriented SHA modelling formalism, known as Stochastic Hybrid Fault Tree Automaton (SHyFTA), has been formalized together with a software library (SHyFTOO) that simplifies the resolution of complex models. At the state of the art, SHyFTOO allows analyzing the dependability of multistate repairable systems characterized by a reactive maintenance policy. Exploiting the flexibility of SHyFTA, this paper aims to extend the tools’ functionalities to other well-known maintenance policies. To achieve this goal, the main features of the preventive, risk-based and condition-based maintenance policies will be analyzed and used to design a software model to integrate into the SHyFTOO. Finally, a case study to test and compare the results of the different maintenance policies will be illustrated

Process Mining for Dynamic Modeling of Smart Manufacturing Systems: Data Requirements

Modern manufacturing systems can benefit from the use of digital tools to support both short- and long-term decisions. Meanwhile, such systems reached a high level of complexity and are frequently subject to modifications that can quickly make the digital tools obsolete. In this context, the ability to dynamically generate models of production systems is essential to guarantee their exploitation on the shop-floors as decision-support systems. The literature offers approaches for generating digital models based on real-time data streams. These models can represent a system more precisely at any point in time, as they are continuously updated based on the data. However, most approaches consider only isolated aspects of systems (e.g., reliability models) and focus on a specific modeling purpose (e.g., material flow identification). The research challenge is therefore to develop a novel framework that systematically enables the combination of models extracted through different process mining algorithms. To tackle this challenge, it is critical to define the requirements that enable the emergence of automated modeling and simulation tasks. In this paper, we therefore derive and define data requirements for the models that need to be extracted. We include aspects such as the structure of the manufacturing system and the behavior of its machines. The paper aims at guiding practitioners in designing coherent data structures to enable the coupling of model generation techniques within the digital support system of manufacturing companies

From FMTV to WATERS: Lessons Learned from the First Verification Challenge at ECRTS

We present here the main features and lessons learned from the first edition of what has now become the ECRTS industrial challenge, together with the final description of the challenge and a comparative overview of the proposed solutions. This verification challenge, proposed by Thales, was first discussed in 2014 as part of a dedicated workshop (FMTV, a satellite event of the FM 2014 conference), and solutions were discussed for the first time at the WATERS 2015 workshop. The use case for the verification challenge is an aerial video tracking system. A specificity of this system lies in the fact that periods are constant but known with a limited precision only. The first part of the challenge focuses on the video frame processing system. It consists in computing maximum values of the end-to-end latency of the frames sent by the camera to the display, for two different buffer sizes, and then the minimum duration between two consecutive frame losses. The second challenge is about computing end-to-end latencies on the tracking and camera control for two different values of jitter. Solutions based on five different tools - Fiacre/Tina, CPAL (simulation and analysis), IMITATOR, UPPAAL and MAST - were submitted for discussion at WATERS 2015. While none of these solutions provided a full answer to the challenge, a combination of several of them did allow to draw some conclusions

SOVEREIGN: An Autonomous Neural System for Incrementally Learning Planned Action Sequences to Navigate Towards a Rewarded Goal

How do reactive and planned behaviors interact in real time? How are sequences of such behaviors released at appropriate times during autonomous navigation to realize valued goals? Controllers for both animals and mobile robots, or animats, need reactive mechanisms for exploration, and learned plans to reach goal objects once an environment becomes familiar. The SOVEREIGN (Self-Organizing, Vision, Expectation, Recognition, Emotion, Intelligent, Goaloriented Navigation) animat model embodies these capabilities, and is tested in a 3D virtual reality environment. SOVEREIGN includes several interacting subsystems which model complementary properties of cortical What and Where processing streams and which clarify similarities between mechanisms for navigation and arm movement control. As the animat explores an environment, visual inputs are processed by networks that are sensitive to visual form and motion in the What and Where streams, respectively. Position-invariant and sizeinvariant recognition categories are learned by real-time incremental learning in the What stream. Estimates of target position relative to the animat are computed in the Where stream, and can activate approach movements toward the target. Motion cues from animat locomotion can elicit head-orienting movements to bring a new target into view. Approach and orienting movements are alternately performed during animat navigation. Cumulative estimates of each movement are derived from interacting proprioceptive and visual cues. Movement sequences are stored within a motor working memory. Sequences of visual categories are stored in a sensory working memory. These working memories trigger learning of sensory and motor sequence categories, or plans, which together control planned movements. Predictively effective chunk combinations are selectively enhanced via reinforcement learning when the animat is rewarded. Selected planning chunks effect a gradual transition from variable reactive exploratory movements to efficient goal-oriented planned movement sequences. Volitional signals gate interactions between model subsystems and the release of overt behaviors. The model can control different motor sequences under different motivational states and learns more efficient sequences to rewarded goals as exploration proceeds.Riverside Reserach Institute; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (N00014-92-J-4015); Air Force Office of Scientific Research (F49620-92-J-0225); National Science Foundation (IRI 90-24877, SBE-0345378); Office of Naval Research (N00014-92-J-1309, N00014-91-J-4100, N00014-01-1-0624, N00014-01-1-0624); Pacific Sierra Research (PSR 91-6075-2

Application of artificial neural networks and colored petri nets on earthquake resilient water distribution systems

Water distribution systems are important lifelines and a critical and complex infrastructure of a country. The performance of this system during unexpected rare events is important as it is one of the lifelines that people directly depend on and other factors indirectly impact the economy of a nation. In this thesis a couple of methods that can be used to predict damage and simulate the restoration process of a water distribution system are presented. Contributing to the effort of applying computational tools to infrastructure systems, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the rate of damage in the pipe network during seismic events. Prediction done in this thesis is based on earthquake intensity, peak ground velocity, and pipe size and material type. Further, restoration process of water distribution network in a seismic event is modeled and restoration curves are simulated using colored Petri nets. This dynamic simulation will aid decision makers to adopt the best strategies during disaster management. Prediction of damages, modeling and simulation in conjunction with other disaster reduction methodologies and strategies is expected to be helpful to be more resilient and better prepared for disasters --Abstract, page iv

Recovery within long running transactions

As computer systems continue to grow in complexity, the possibilities of failure increase. At the same time, the increase in computer system pervasiveness in day-to-day activities brought along increased expectations on their reliability. This has led to the need for effective and automatic error recovery techniques to resolve failures. Transactions enable the handling of failure propagation over concurrent systems due to dependencies, restoring the system to the point before the failure occurred. However, in various settings, especially when interacting with the real world, reversal is not possible. The notion of compensations has been long advocated as a way of addressing this issue, through the specification of activities which can be executed to undo partial transactions. Still, there is no accepted standard theory; the literature offers a plethora of distinct formalisms and approaches. In this survey, we review the compensations from a theoretical point of view by: (i) giving a historic account of the evolution of compensating transactions; (ii) delineating and describing a number of design options involved; (iii) presenting a number of formalisms found in the literature, exposing similarities and differences; (iv) comparing formal notions of compensation correctness; (v) giving insights regarding the application of compensations in practice; and (vi) discussing current and future research trends in the area.peer-reviewe

Exploring resource/performance trade-offs for streaming applications on embedded multiprocessors

Embedded system design is challenged by the gap between the ever-increasing customer demands and the limited resource budgets. The tough competition demands ever-shortening time-to-market and product lifecycles. To solve or, at least to alleviate, the aforementioned issues, designers and manufacturers need model-based quantitative analysis techniques for early design-space exploration to study trade-offs of different implementation candidates. Moreover, modern embedded applications, especially the streaming applications addressed in this thesis, face more and more dynamic input contents, and the platforms that they are running on are more flexible and allow runtime configuration. Quantitative analysis techniques for embedded system design have to be able to handle such dynamic adaptable systems. This thesis has the following contributions: - A resource-aware extension to the Synchronous Dataflow (SDF) model of computation. - Trade-off analysis techniques, both in the time-domain and in the iterationdomain (i.e., on an SDF iteration basis), with support for resource sharing. - Bottleneck-driven design-space exploration techniques for resource-aware SDF. - A game-theoretic approach to controller synthesis, guaranteeing performance under dynamic input. As a first contribution, we propose a new model, as an extension of static synchronous dataflow graphs (SDF) that allows the explicit modeling of resources with consistency checking. The model is called resource-aware SDF (RASDF). The extension enables us to investigate resource sharing and to explore different scheduling options (ways to allocate the resources to the different tasks) using state-space exploration techniques. Consistent SDF and RASDF graphs have the property that an execution occurs in so-called iterations. An iteration typically corresponds to the processing of a meaningful piece of data, and it returns the graph to its initial state. On multiprocessor platforms, iterations may be executed in a pipelined fashion, which makes performance analysis challenging. As the second contribution, this thesis develops trade-off analysis techniques for RASDF, both in the time-domain and in the iteration-domain (i.e., on an SDF iteration basis), to dimension resources on platforms. The time-domain analysis allows interleaving of different iterations, but the size of the explored state space grows quickly. The iteration-based technique trades the potential of interleaving of iterations for a compact size of the iteration state space. An efficient bottleneck-driven designspace exploration technique for streaming applications, the third main contribution in this thesis, is derived from analysis of the critical cycle of the state space, to reveal bottleneck resources that are limiting the throughput. All techniques are based on state-based exploration. They enable system designers to tailor their platform to the required applications, based on their own specific performance requirements. Pruning techniques for efficient exploration of the state space have been developed. Pareto dominance in terms of performance and resource usage is used for exact pruning, and approximation techniques are used for heuristic pruning. Finally, the thesis investigates dynamic scheduling techniques to respond to dynamic changes in input streams. The fourth contribution in this thesis is a game-theoretic approach to tackle controller synthesis to select the appropriate schedules in response to dynamic inputs from the environment. The approach transforms the explored iteration state space of a scenario- and resource-aware SDF (SARA SDF) graph to a bipartite game graph, and maps the controller synthesis problem to the problem of finding a winning positional strategy in a classical mean payoff game. A winning strategy of the game can be used to synthesize the controller of schedules for the system that is guaranteed to satisfy the throughput requirement given by the designer

Discrete Event Model-Based Approach for Fault Detection and Isolation of Manufacturing Systems

International audienceThis paper presents a discrete event model-based approach for Fault Detection and Isolation of manufacturing systems. This approach considers a system as a set of independent plant elements. Each plant element is composed of a set of interrelated Parts of Plant (PoPs) modeled by a Moore automaton. Each PoP model is only aware of its local behavior. The degraded and faulty behaviors are added to each PoP model in order to obtain extended PoP ones. An extrapolation of Gaussian learning is realized to obtain acceptable temporal intervals between the time occurrences of correlated events. Finally based on the PoP extended models and the links between them, a fault candidates' tree is established for each plant element. This candidates' tree corresponds to a local on-line fault event occurrence observer, called diagnoser. Thus, the diagnosis decision is distributed on each plant element. An application example is used to illustrate the approach