Airline planning benchmark problems—Part II : passenger groups, utility and demand allocation

This paper is the second of two papers entitled “Airline Planning Benchmark Problems”, aimed at developing benchmark data that can be used to stimulate innovation in airline planning, in particular, in flight schedule design and fleet assignment. The former has, to date, been under-represented in the optimisation literature, due in part to the difficulty of obtaining data that adequately reflects passenger choice, and hence schedule revenue. Revenue models in airline planning optimisation only roughly approximate the passenger decision process. However, there is a growing body of literature giving empirical insights into airline passenger choice. Here we propose a new paradigm for passenger modelling, that enriches our representation of passenger revenue, in a form designed to be useful for optimisation. We divide the market demand into market segments, or passenger groups, according to characteristics that differentiate behaviour in terms of airline product selection. Each passenger group has an origin, destination, size (number of passengers), departure time window, and departure time utility curve, indicating willingness to pay for departure in time sub-windows. Taking as input market demand for each origin–destination pair, we describe a process by which we construct realistic passenger group data, based on the analysis of empirical airline data collected by our industry partner. We give the results of that analysis, and describe 33 benchmark instances produced

Online Predictive Optimization Framework for Stochastic Demand-Responsive Transit Services

This study develops an online predictive optimization framework for dynamically operating a transit service in an area of crowd movements. The proposed framework integrates demand prediction and supply optimization to periodically redesign the service routes based on recently observed demand. To predict demand for the service, we use Quantile Regression to estimate the marginal distribution of movement counts between each pair of serviced locations. The framework then combines these marginals into a joint demand distribution by constructing a Gaussian copula, which captures the structure of correlation between the marginals. For supply optimization, we devise a linear programming model, which simultaneously determines the route structure and the service frequency according to the predicted demand. Importantly, our framework both preserves the uncertainty structure of future demand and leverages this for robust route optimization, while keeping both components decoupled. We evaluate our framework using a real-world case study of autonomous mobility in a university campus in Denmark. The results show that our framework often obtains the ground truth optimal solution, and can outperform conventional methods for route optimization, which do not leverage full predictive distributions.Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures, 5 table

Data allocation and application for time-dependent vehicle routing in city logistics

In city logistics, service providers have to consider dynamics within logistics processes in order to achieve higher schedule reliability and delivery flexibility. To this end, city logistics routing demands for time-dependent travel time estimates and time-dependent optimization models. We consider the process of allocation and application of empirical traffic data for time-dependent vehicle routing in city logistics with respect to its usage. Telematics based traffic data collection and the conversion from raw empirical traffic data into information models are discussed. A city logistics scenario points out the applicability of the information models provided, which are based on huge amounts of real traffic data (FCD). Thus, the benefits of time-dependent planning in contrast to common static planning methods can be demonstrated

A Review of Trip Planning Systems.

This report reviews current information provision in all modes of transport and assesses the needs for and benefits of trip planning systems. The feasibility of trip planning systems is discussed given the current state of technology and information availability and supply. The review was stimulated by technological developments in telecommunications and information technology which are providing the possibility of a greatly enhanced quality of information to aid trip planning decisions. Amongst the conclusions reached were the following: Current information provision is considered deficient in many respects. Travellers are often unaware of alternative routes or services and many are unable to acquire adequate information from one source especially for multi-modal journeys. In addition, there is a lack of providing real time information where it is required (bus stops and train stations) and of effective interaction of static and real time information. Most of the projects, which integrate static and dynamic data, are single mode systems. Therefore there is a need for an integrated trip planning system which can inform and guide on all aspects of transport. Trip planning systems can provide assistance in trip planning (before and during the journey) using one or a number of modes of travel, taking into account travellers preferences and constraints, and effectively integrating static and dynamic data. Trip planning systems could adversely affect traffic demand as people who become aware of new opportunities might be encouraged to make more journeys. It could also affect travellers choice as a result of over-saturation of information, over-reaction to predictive information, and concentration on the same 'best' routes. However, it can be argued, based on existing evidence, that such a system can benefit travellers, and transport operators as well as the public sector responsible for executing transport policies. Travellers can benefit by obtaining adequate information to help them in making optimal decisions and reducing uncertainty and stress associated with travel. Public transport operators can benefit by making their services known to customers, leading to increased patronage. Public transport authorities can use the supply of information to execute their transport policies and exercise more control over traffic management

Generating Travel Itineraries Based on Travel History of Similar Users

Generally, the present disclosure is directed to generating a travel itinerary for a user based on travel history of similar users. In particular, in some implementations, the systems and methods of the present disclosure can include or otherwise leverage one or more machine-learned models to generate a travel itinerary for a user based on travel history data from one or more users

Generating Travel Itineraries Based on User Interests

Generally, the present disclosure is directed to generating a travel itinerary for a user based on the user’s interests. In particular, in some implementations, the systems and methods of the present disclosure can include or otherwise leverage one or more machine-learned models to predict interest of a user and generate a travel itinerary based on user preferences and interests

Improving Itinerary Recommendations for Tourists Through Metaheuristic Algorithms: An Optimization Proposal

In recent years, recommender systems have been used as a solution to support tourists with recommendations oriented to maximize the entertainment value of visiting a tourist destination. However, this is not an easy task because many aspects need to be considered to make realistic recommendations: the context of a tourist destination visited, lack of updated information about points of interest, transport information, weather forecast, etc. The recommendations concerning a tourist destination must be linked to the interests and constraints of the tourist. In this research, we present a mobile recommender system based on Tourist Trip Design Problem (TTDP)/Time Depending (TD) – Orienteering Problem (OP) – Time Windows (TW), which analyzes in real time the user’s constraints and the points of interest’s constraints. For solving TTDP, we clustered preferences depending on the number of days that a tourist will visit a tourist destination using a k-means algorithm. Then, with a genetic algorithm (GA), we optimize the proposed itineraries to tourists for facilitating the organization of their visits. We also used a parametrized fitness function to include any element of the context to generate an optimized recommendation. Our recommender is different from others because it is scalable and adaptable to environmental changes and users’ interests, and it offers real-time recommendations. To test our recommender, we developed an application that uses our algorithm. Finally, 131 tourists used this recommender system and an analysis of users’ perceptions was developed. Metrics were also used to detect the percentage of precision, in order to determine the degree of accuracy of the recommender system. This study has implications for researchers interested in developing software to recommend the best itinerary for tourists with constraint controls with regard to the optimized itineraries

Dynamic pricing under customer choice behavior for revenue management in passenger railway networks

Revenue management (RM) for passenger railway is a small but active research field with an increasing attention during the past years. However, a detailed look into existing research shows that most of the current models in theory rely on traditional RM techniques and that advanced models are rare. This thesis aims to close the gap by proposing a state-of-the-art passenger railway pricing model that covers the most important properties from practice, with a special focus on the German railway network and long-distance rail company Deutsche Bahn Fernverkehr (DB). The new model has multiple advantages over DB’s current RM system. Particularly, it uses a choice-based demand function rather than a traditional independent demand model, is formulated as a network model instead of the current leg-based approach and finally optimizes prices on a continuous level instead of controlling booking classes. Since each itinerary in the network is considered by multiple heterogeneous customer segments (e.g., differentiated by travel purpose, desired departure time) a discrete mixed multinomial logit model (MMNL) is applied to represent demand. Compared to alternative choice models such as the multinomial logit model (MNL) or the nested logit model (NL), the MMNL is significantly less considered in pricing research. Furthermore, since the resulting deterministic multi-product multi-resource dynamic pricing model under the MMNL turns out to be non- linear non-convex, an open question is still how to obtain a globally optimal solution. To narrow this gap, this thesis provides multiple approaches that make it able to derive a solution close to the global optimum. For medium-sized networks, a mixed-integer programming approach is proposed that determines an upper bound close to the global optimum of the original model (gap < 1.5%). For large-scale networks, a heuristic approach is presented that significantly decreases the solution time (by factor up to 56) and derives a good solution for an application in practice. Based on these findings, the model and heuristic are extended to fit further price constraints from railway practice and are tested in an extensive simulation study. The results show that the new pricing approach outperforms both benchmark RM policies (i.e., DB’s existing model and EMSR-b) with a revenue improvement of approx. +13-15% over DB’s existing approach under a realistic demand scenario. Finally, to prepare data for large-scale railway networks, an algorithm is presented that automatically derives a large proportion of necessary data to solve choice-based network RM models. This includes, e.g., the set of all meaningful itineraries (incl. transfers) and resources in a network, the corresponding resource consumption and product attribute values such as travel time or number of transfers. All taken together, the goal of this thesis is to give a broad picture about choice-based dynamic pricing for passenger railway networks