European exchange trading funds trading with locally weighted support vector regression

In this paper, two different Locally Weighted Support Vector Regression (wSVR) algorithms are generated and applied to the task of forecasting and trading five European Exchange Traded Funds. The trading application covers the recent European Monetary Union debt crisis. The performance of the proposed models is benchmarked against traditional Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. The Radial Basis Function, the Wavelet and the Mahalanobis kernel are explored and tested as SVR kernels. Finally, a novel statistical SVR input selection procedure is introduced based on a principal component analysis and the Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2011) model confidence test. The results demonstrate the superiority of the wSVR models over the traditional SVRs and of the v-SVR over the ε-SVR algorithms. We note that the performance of all models varies and considerably deteriorates in the peak of the debt crisis. In terms of the kernels, our results do not confirm the belief that the Radial Basis Function is the optimum choice for financial series

Kernel methods in machine learning

We review machine learning methods employing positive definite kernels. These methods formulate learning and estimation problems in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) of functions defined on the data domain, expanded in terms of a kernel. Working in linear spaces of function has the benefit of facilitating the construction and analysis of learning algorithms while at the same time allowing large classes of functions. The latter include nonlinear functions as well as functions defined on nonvectorial data. We cover a wide range of methods, ranging from binary classifiers to sophisticated methods for estimation with structured data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053607000000677 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Training Echo State Networks with Regularization through Dimensionality Reduction

In this paper we introduce a new framework to train an Echo State Network to predict real valued time-series. The method consists in projecting the output of the internal layer of the network on a space with lower dimensionality, before training the output layer to learn the target task. Notably, we enforce a regularization constraint that leads to better generalization capabilities. We evaluate the performances of our approach on several benchmark tests, using different techniques to train the readout of the network, achieving superior predictive performance when using the proposed framework. Finally, we provide an insight on the effectiveness of the implemented mechanics through a visualization of the trajectory in the phase space and relying on the methodologies of nonlinear time-series analysis. By applying our method on well known chaotic systems, we provide evidence that the lower dimensional embedding retains the dynamical properties of the underlying system better than the full-dimensional internal states of the network

Positive Definite Kernels in Machine Learning

This survey is an introduction to positive definite kernels and the set of methods they have inspired in the machine learning literature, namely kernel methods. We first discuss some properties of positive definite kernels as well as reproducing kernel Hibert spaces, the natural extension of the set of functions $\{k(x,\cdot),x\in\mathcal{X}\}$ associated with a kernel $k$ defined on a space $\mathcal{X}$. We discuss at length the construction of kernel functions that take advantage of well-known statistical models. We provide an overview of numerous data-analysis methods which take advantage of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and discuss the idea of combining several kernels to improve the performance on certain tasks. We also provide a short cookbook of different kernels which are particularly useful for certain data-types such as images, graphs or speech segments.Comment: draft. corrected a typo in figure