Ensembles of Randomized Time Series Shapelets Provide Improved Accuracy while Reducing Computational Costs

Shapelets are discriminative time series subsequences that allow generation of interpretable classification models, which provide faster and generally better classification than the nearest neighbor approach. However, the shapelet discovery process requires the evaluation of all possible subsequences of all time series in the training set, making it extremely computation intensive. Consequently, shapelet discovery for large time series datasets quickly becomes intractable. A number of improvements have been proposed to reduce the training time. These techniques use approximation or discretization and often lead to reduced classification accuracy compared to the exact method. We are proposing the use of ensembles of shapelet-based classifiers obtained using random sampling of the shapelet candidates. Using random sampling reduces the number of evaluated candidates and consequently the required computational cost, while the classification accuracy of the resulting models is also not significantly different than that of the exact algorithm. The combination of randomized classifiers rectifies the inaccuracies of individual models because of the diversity of the solutions. Based on the experiments performed, it is shown that the proposed approach of using an ensemble of inexpensive classifiers provides better classification accuracy compared to the exact method at a significantly lesser computational cost

Integrating Learning from Examples into the Search for Diagnostic Policies

This paper studies the problem of learning diagnostic policies from training examples. A diagnostic policy is a complete description of the decision-making actions of a diagnostician (i.e., tests followed by a diagnostic decision) for all possible combinations of test results. An optimal diagnostic policy is one that minimizes the expected total cost, which is the sum of measurement costs and misdiagnosis costs. In most diagnostic settings, there is a tradeoff between these two kinds of costs. This paper formalizes diagnostic decision making as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). The paper introduces a new family of systematic search algorithms based on the AO* algorithm to solve this MDP. To make AO* efficient, the paper describes an admissible heuristic that enables AO* to prune large parts of the search space. The paper also introduces several greedy algorithms including some improvements over previously-published methods. The paper then addresses the question of learning diagnostic policies from examples. When the probabilities of diseases and test results are computed from training data, there is a great danger of overfitting. To reduce overfitting, regularizers are integrated into the search algorithms. Finally, the paper compares the proposed methods on five benchmark diagnostic data sets. The studies show that in most cases the systematic search methods produce better diagnostic policies than the greedy methods. In addition, the studies show that for training sets of realistic size, the systematic search algorithms are practical on todays desktop computers

Influence-Optimistic Local Values for Multiagent Planning --- Extended Version

Recent years have seen the development of methods for multiagent planning under uncertainty that scale to tens or even hundreds of agents. However, most of these methods either make restrictive assumptions on the problem domain, or provide approximate solutions without any guarantees on quality. Methods in the former category typically build on heuristic search using upper bounds on the value function. Unfortunately, no techniques exist to compute such upper bounds for problems with non-factored value functions. To allow for meaningful benchmarking through measurable quality guarantees on a very general class of problems, this paper introduces a family of influence-optimistic upper bounds for factored decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) that do not have factored value functions. Intuitively, we derive bounds on very large multiagent planning problems by subdividing them in sub-problems, and at each of these sub-problems making optimistic assumptions with respect to the influence that will be exerted by the rest of the system. We numerically compare the different upper bounds and demonstrate how we can achieve a non-trivial guarantee that a heuristic solution for problems with hundreds of agents is close to optimal. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the upper bounds may improve the effectiveness of heuristic influence search, and discuss further potential applications to multiagent planning.Comment: Long version of IJCAI 2015 paper (and extended abstract at AAMAS 2015

Mining data streams using option trees (revised edition, 2004)

The data stream model for data mining places harsh restrictions on a learning algorithm. A model must be induced following the briefest interrogation of the data, must use only available memory and must update itself over time within these constraints. Additionally, the model must be able to be used for data mining at any point in time. This paper describes a data stream classi_cation algorithm using an ensemble of option trees. The ensemble of trees is induced by boosting and iteratively combined into a single interpretable model. The algorithm is evaluated using benchmark datasets for accuracy against state-of-the-art algorithms that make use of the entire dataset

A review of associative classification mining

Associative classification mining is a promising approach in data mining that utilizes the association rule discovery techniques to construct classification systems, also known as associative classifiers. In the last few years, a number of associative classification algorithms have been proposed, i.e. CPAR, CMAR, MCAR, MMAC and others. These algorithms employ several different rule discovery, rule ranking, rule pruning, rule prediction and rule evaluation methods. This paper focuses on surveying and comparing the state-of-the-art associative classification techniques with regards to the above criteria. Finally, future directions in associative classification, such as incremental learning and mining low-quality data sets, are also highlighted in this paper

A Survey of Monte Carlo Tree Search Methods

Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) is a recently proposed search method that combines the precision of tree search with the generality of random sampling. It has received considerable interest due to its spectacular success in the difficult problem of computer Go, but has also proved beneficial in a range of other domains. This paper is a survey of the literature to date, intended to provide a snapshot of the state of the art after the first five years of MCTS research. We outline the core algorithm's derivation, impart some structure on the many variations and enhancements that have been proposed, and summarize the results from the key game and nongame domains to which MCTS methods have been applied. A number of open research questions indicate that the field is ripe for future work