Games under Ambiguous Payoffs and Optimistic Attitudes

In real-life games, the consequence or payoff of a strategy profile and a player's belief about the consequence of a strategy profile are often ambiguous, and players may have different optimistic attitudes with respect to a strategy profile. To handle this problem, this paper proposes a decision rule using the Hurwicz criterion and Dempster-Shafer theory. Based on this rule, we introduce a new kind of games, called ambiguous games, and propose a solution concept that is appropriate for this sort of games. Moreover, we also study how the beliefs regarding possible payoffs and optimistic attitudes may affect the solutions of such a game. To illustrate our model, we provide an analysis of a scenario concerning allocating resource of defending and attacking in military contexts

An IVIF-ELECTRE outranking method for multiple criteria decision-making with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets

The method of ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalité (ELimination and Choice Expressing Reality, ELECTRE) is a well-known and widely used outranking method for handling decision-making problems. The purpose of this paper is to develop an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy ELECTRE (IVIF-ELECTRE) method and apply it to multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) involving the multiple criteria evaluation/selection of alternatives. Using interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy (IVIF) sets with an inclusion comparison approach, concordance and discordance sets are identified for each pair of alternatives. Next, concordance and discordance indices are determined using an aggregate importance weight score function and a generalised distance measurement between weighted evaluative ratings, respectively. Based on the concordance and discordance dominance matrices, two IVIF-ELECTRE ranking procedures are developed for the partial and complete ranking of the alternatives. The feasibility and applicability of the proposed methods are illustrated with a multiple criteria decision-making problem of watershed site selection. A comparative analysis of other MCDA methods is conducted to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed IVIF-ELECTRE methods. Finally, an empirical study of job choices is implemented to validate the effectiveness of the current methods in the real world. First published online: 17 Sep 201

Goal programming approaches to deriving interval fuzzy preference relations

This article investigates the consistency of interval fuzzy preference relations based on interval arithmetic, and new definitions are introduced for additive consistent, multiplicative consistent and weakly transitive interval fuzzy preference relations. Transformation functions are put forward to convert normalized interval weights into consistent interval fuzzy preference relations. By analyzing the relationship between interval weights and consistent interval fuzzy preference relations, goal-programming-based models are developed for deriving interval weights from interval fuzzy preference relations for both individual and group decision-making situations. The proposed models are illustrated by a numerical example and an international exchange doctoral student selection problem

Can dissonance engineering improve risk analysis of human–machine systems?

The paper discusses dissonance engineering and its application to risk analysis of human–machine systems. Dissonance engineering relates to sciences and technologies relevant to dissonances, defined as conflicts between knowledge. The richness of the concept of dissonance is illustrated by a taxonomy that covers a variety of cognitive and organisational dissonances based on different conflict modes and baselines of their analysis. Knowledge control is discussed and related to strategies for accepting or rejecting dissonances. This acceptability process can be justified by a risk analysis of dissonances which takes into account their positive and negative impacts and several assessment criteria. A risk analysis method is presented and discussed along with practical examples of application. The paper then provides key points to motivate the development of risk analysis methods dedicated to dissonances in order to identify the balance between the positive and negative impacts and to improve the design and use of future human–machine system by reinforcing knowledge

Client acceptance method for audit firms based on interval-valued fuzzy numbers

To ensure that investors are getting financial statements that conform to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, the security exchange committee requires publicly traded companies to hire external auditors. Because the information provided in company financial statements has significant economic and social consequences for various parties, external auditors are needed to minimize litigation. Therefore, it is important for audit firms’ risk management teams to evaluate which clients to accept. In this paper, we propose a client acceptance method (CAM) that uses a technique for order preference using similarity to the ideal solution (i.e. TOPSIS) approach to evaluate potential new clients using a decision-making method with interval-valued fuzzy numbers (IVFNs). Through a case study, this paper shows that this CAM results in a high Spearman rankorder correlation coefficient (0.9 to 1.0) with human judgment. This result indicates that CAM could help decision makers evaluate potential clients before acceptance, especially when there are several potential clients but limited resources to provide services. The CAM also could help audit firms more easily ensure that decision makers are complying with firm policies concerning client acceptance through the establishment of uncertainty factor weights. First published online: 28 Jan 201

Solving renewable energy source selection problems using a q-rung orthopair fuzzy-based integrated decision-making approach

This paper proposes an integrated decision-making framework for the systematic selection of a renewable energy source (RES) from a set of RESs based on sustainability attributes. A real case study of RES selection in Karnataka, India, using the framework is demonstrated, and the results are compared with state-of-the-art methods. The main reason for developing this framework is to handle uncertainty and vagueness effectively by reducing human intervention. Systematic selection of RESs also reduces inaccuracies and promotes rational decision-making. In this paper, q-rung orthopair fuzzy information is adopted to minimize subjective randomness by providing a flexible and generalized preference style. Further, the study found systematic approaches for imputing missing values, calculating attributes’ and decision-makers’ weights, aggregation or preferences, and prioritizing RESs, which are integrated into the framework. Comparing the proposed framework with state-of-the-art-methods shows that (i) biomass and solar are suitable RESs for the process under consideration in Karnataka, (ii) the proposed framework is consistent with state-of-the-art methods, (iii) the proposed framework is sufficiently stable even after weights of attributes and decision makers are altered, and (iv) the proposed framework produces broad and sensible rank values for efficient backup management. These results validate the significance of the proposed framework

Dissonance Engineering: A New Challenge to Analyse Risky Knowledge When using a System

The use of information systems such as on-board automated systems for cars presents sometimes operational risks that were not taken into account with classical risk analysis methods. This paper proposes a new challenge to assess risks by implementing an automated tool based on the dissonance engineering principle. It consists in analysing knowledge in term of dissonances. A dissonance is defined as a knowledge that sounds wrong, or in other words that may present conflicts. The paper focuses on two kinds of dissonances: erroneous affordances when events can be related to erroneous actions and contradictory knowledge when the application of knowledge relates to opposite actions. The proposed automated tool analyses the knowledge base content in order to detect possible dangerous affordances or contradictory knowledge. An example of application is given by using a limited number of simple rules related to the use of an Automated Speed Control (ASC) system for car driving

Advances and Applications of Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) for Information Fusion (Collected Works), Vol. 4

The fourth volume on Advances and Applications of Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) for information fusion collects theoretical and applied contributions of researchers working in different fields of applications and in mathematics. The contributions (see List of Articles published in this book, at the end of the volume) have been published or presented after disseminating the third volume (2009, http://fs.unm.edu/DSmT-book3.pdf) in international conferences, seminars, workshops and journals. First Part of this book presents the theoretical advancement of DSmT, dealing with Belief functions, conditioning and deconditioning, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Decision Making, Multi-Criteria, evidence theory, combination rule, evidence distance, conflicting belief, sources of evidences with different importance and reliabilities, importance of sources, pignistic probability transformation, Qualitative reasoning under uncertainty, Imprecise belief structures, 2-Tuple linguistic label, Electre Tri Method, hierarchical proportional redistribution, basic belief assignment, subjective probability measure, Smarandache codification, neutrosophic logic, Evidence theory, outranking methods, Dempster-Shafer Theory, Bayes fusion rule, frequentist probability, mean square error, controlling factor, optimal assignment solution, data association, Transferable Belief Model, and others. More applications of DSmT have emerged in the past years since the apparition of the third book of DSmT 2009. Subsequently, the second part of this volume is about applications of DSmT in correlation with Electronic Support Measures, belief function, sensor networks, Ground Moving Target and Multiple target tracking, Vehicle-Born Improvised Explosive Device, Belief Interacting Multiple Model filter, seismic and acoustic sensor, Support Vector Machines, Alarm classification, ability of human visual system, Uncertainty Representation and Reasoning Evaluation Framework, Threat Assessment, Handwritten Signature Verification, Automatic Aircraft Recognition, Dynamic Data-Driven Application System, adjustment of secure communication trust analysis, and so on. Finally, the third part presents a List of References related with DSmT published or presented along the years since its inception in 2004, chronologically ordered

Multicriteria Consensus Models to Support Intelligent Group Decision-Making

The development of intelligent systems is progressing rapidly, thanks to advances in information technology that enable collective, automated, and effective decision-making based on information collected from diverse sources. Group decision-making (GDM) is a key part of intelligent decision-making (IDM), which has received considerable attention in recent years. IDM through GDM refers to a decision-making problem where a group of intelligent decision-makers (DMs) evaluate a set of alternatives with respect to specific attributes. Intelligent communication among DMs aims to give orders to the available alternatives. However, GDM models developed for IDM must incorporate consensus support models to effectively integrate input from each DM into the final decision. Many efforts have been made to design consensus models to support IDM, depending on the decision problem or environment. Despite promising results, significant gaps remain in research on the design of such support models. One major drawback of existing consensus models is their dependence on the type of decision environment, making them less generalizable. Moreover, these models are often static and cannot respond to dynamic changes in the decision environment. Another limitation is that consensus models for large-scale decision environments lack an efficient communication regime to enable DM interactions. To address these challenges, this dissertation proposes developing consensus models to support IDM through GDM. To address the generalization issue of existing consensus models, reinforcement learning (RL) is proposed. RL agents can be built on the Markov decision process to enable IDM, potentially removing the generalization issue of consensus support models. Contrary to most consensus models, which assume static decision environments, this dissertation proposes a computationally efficient dynamic consensus model to support dynamic IDM. Finally, to facilitate secure and efficient interactions among intelligent DMs in large-scale problems, Blockchain technology is proposed to speed up the consensus process. The proposed communication regime also includes trust-building mechanisms that employ Blockchain protocols to remove enduring and limitative assumptions on opinion similarity among agents

Motivated beliefs, self-serving recall and data omission: economic implications and experimental evidence

Tesis Doctoral inédita leída en la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Análisis Económico, Teoría Económica e Historia Económica. Fecha de Lectura: 26-05-2021Tesis financiada por el Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad, a través de los proyectos de investigación ECO2014-52372-P y ECO2017-82449-P