Hybrid One-Shot 3D Hand Pose Estimation by Exploiting Uncertainties

Model-based approaches to 3D hand tracking have been shown to perform well in a wide range of scenarios. However, they require initialisation and cannot recover easily from tracking failures that occur due to fast hand motions. Data-driven approaches, on the other hand, can quickly deliver a solution, but the results often suffer from lower accuracy or missing anatomical validity compared to those obtained from model-based approaches. In this work we propose a hybrid approach for hand pose estimation from a single depth image. First, a learned regressor is employed to deliver multiple initial hypotheses for the 3D position of each hand joint. Subsequently, the kinematic parameters of a 3D hand model are found by deliberately exploiting the inherent uncertainty of the inferred joint proposals. This way, the method provides anatomically valid and accurate solutions without requiring manual initialisation or suffering from track losses. Quantitative results on several standard datasets demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art representatives of the model-based, data-driven and hybrid paradigms.Comment: BMVC 2015 (oral); see also http://lrs.icg.tugraz.at/research/hybridhape

A critical evaluation of deterministic methods in size optimisation of reliable and cost effective standalone Hybrid renewable energy systems

Reliability of a hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) strongly depends on various uncertainties affecting the amount of power produced by the system. In the design of systems subject to uncertainties, both deterministic and nondeterministic design approaches can be adopted. In a deterministic design approach, the designer considers the presence of uncertainties and incorporates them indirectly into the design by applying safety factors. It is assumed that, by employing suitable safety factors and considering worst-case-scenarios, reliable systems can be designed. In fact, the multi-objective optimisation problem with two objectives of reliability and cost is reduced to a single-objective optimisation problem with the objective of cost only. In this paper the competence of deterministic design methods in size optimisation of reliable standalone wind-PV-battery, wind-PV-diesel and wind-PV-battery-diesel configurations is examined. For each configuration, first, using different values of safety factors, the optimal size of the system components which minimises the system cost is found deterministically. Then, for each case, using a Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of safety factors on the reliability and the cost are investigated. In performing reliability analysis, several reliability measures, namely, unmet load, blackout durations (total, maximum and average) and mean time between failures are considered. It is shown that the traditional methods of considering the effect of uncertainties in deterministic designs such as design for an autonomy period and employing safety factors have either little or unpredictable impact on the actual reliability of the designed wind-PV-battery configuration. In the case of wind-PV-diesel and wind-PV-battery-diesel configurations it is shown that, while using a high-enough margin of safety in sizing diesel generator leads to reliable systems, the optimum value for this margin of safety leading to a cost-effective system cannot be quantified without employing probabilistic methods of analysis. It is also shown that deterministic cost analysis yields inaccurate results for all of the investigated configurations

Learning and Designing Stochastic Processes from Logical Constraints

Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics must be known exactly. As this is seldom the case, many methods have been devised over the last decade to infer (learn) such parameters from observations of the state of the system. In this paper, we depart from this approach by assuming that our observations are {\it qualitative} properties encoded as satisfaction of linear temporal logic formulae, as opposed to quantitative observations of the state of the system. An important feature of this approach is that it unifies naturally the system identification and the system design problems, where the properties, instead of observations, represent requirements to be satisfied. We develop a principled statistical estimation procedure based on maximising the likelihood of the system's parameters, using recent ideas from statistical machine learning. We demonstrate the efficacy and broad applicability of our method on a range of simple but non-trivial examples, including rumour spreading in social networks and hybrid models of gene regulation

A modular hybrid simulation framework for complex manufacturing system design

For complex manufacturing systems, the current hybrid Agent-Based Modelling and Discrete Event Simulation (ABM–DES) frameworks are limited to component and system levels of representation and present a degree of static complexity to study optimal resource planning. To address these limitations, a modular hybrid simulation framework for complex manufacturing system design is presented. A manufacturing system with highly regulated and manual handling processes, composed of multiple repeating modules, is considered. In this framework, the concept of modular hybrid ABM–DES technique is introduced to demonstrate a novel simulation method using a dynamic system of parallel multi-agent discrete events. In this context, to create a modular model, the stochastic finite dynamical system is extended to allow the description of discrete event states inside the agent for manufacturing repeating modules (meso level). Moreover, dynamic complexity regarding uncertain processing time and resources is considered. This framework guides the user step-by-step through the system design and modular hybrid model. A real case study in the cell and gene therapy industry is conducted to test the validity of the framework. The simulation results are compared against the data from the studied case; excellent agreement with 1.038% error margin is found in terms of the company performance. The optimal resource planning and the uncertainty of the processing time for manufacturing phases (exo level), in the presence of dynamic complexity is calculated

Multi-objective design optimisation of standalone hybrid wind-PV-diesel systems under uncertainties

Optimal design of a standalone wind-PV-diesel hybrid system is a multi-objective optimisation problem with conflicting objectives of cost and reliability. Uncertainties in renewable resources, demand load and power modelling make deterministic methods of multi-objective optimisation fall short in optimal design of standalone hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES). Firstly, deterministic methods of analysis, even in the absence of uncertainties in cost modelling, do not predict the levelised cost of energy accurately. Secondly, since these methods ignore the random variations in parameters, they cannot be used to quantify the second objective, reliability of the system in supplying power. It is shown that for a given site and uncertainties profile, there exist an optimum margin of safety, applicable to the peak load, which can be used to size the diesel generator towards designing a cost-effective and reliable system. However, this optimum value is problem dependent and cannot be obtained deterministically. For two design scenarios, namely, finding the most reliable system subject to a constraint on the cost and finding the most cost-effective system subject to constraints on reliability measures, two algorithms are proposed to find the optimum margin of safety. The robustness of the proposed design methodology is shown through carrying out two design case studies

Ascent trajectory optimisation for a single-stage-to-orbit vehicle with hybrid propulsion

This paper addresses the design of ascent trajectories for a hybrid-engine, high performance, unmanned, single-stage-to-orbit vehicle for payload deployment into low Earth orbit. A hybrid optimisation technique that couples a population-based, stochastic algorithm with a deterministic, gradient-based technique is used to maximize the nal vehicle mass in low Earth orbit after accounting for operational constraints on the dynamic pressure, Mach number and maximum axial and normal accelerations. The control search space is first explored by the population-based algorithm, which uses a single shooting method to evaluate the performance of candidate solutions. The resultant optimal control law and corresponding trajectory are then further refined by a direct collocation method based on finite elements in time. Two distinct operational phases, one using an air-breathing propulsion mode and the second using rocket propulsion, are considered. The presence of uncertainties in the atmospheric and vehicle aerodynamic models are considered in order to quantify their effect on the performance of the vehicle. Firstly, the deterministic optimal control law is re-integrated after introducing uncertainties into the models. The proximity of the final solutions to the target states are analysed statistically. A second analysis is then performed, aimed at determining the best performance of the vehicle when these uncertainties are included directly in the optimisation. The statistical analysis of the results obtained are summarized by an expectancy curve which represents the probable vehicle performance as a function of the uncertain system parameters. This analysis can be used during the preliminary phase of design to yield valuable insights into the robustness of the performance of the vehicle to uncertainties in the specification of its parameters

Multi-disciplinary robust design of variable speed wind turbines

This paper addresses the preliminary robust multi-disciplinary design of small wind turbines. The turbine to be designed is assumed to be connected to the grid by means of power electronic converters. The main input parameter is the yearly wind distribution at the selected site, and it is represented by means of a Weibull distribution. The objective function is the electrical energy delivered yearly to the grid. Aerodynamic and electrical characteristics are fully coupled and modelled by means of low- and medium-fidelity models. Uncertainty affecting the blade geometry is considered, and a multi-objective hybrid evolutionary algorithm code is used to maximise the mean value of the yearly energy production and minimise its variance

State of the Art in the Optimisation of Wind Turbine Performance Using CFD

Wind energy has received increasing attention in recent years due to its sustainability and geographically wide availability. The efficiency of wind energy utilisation highly depends on the performance of wind turbines, which convert the kinetic energy in wind into electrical energy. In order to optimise wind turbine performance and reduce the cost of next-generation wind turbines, it is crucial to have a view of the state of the art in the key aspects on the performance optimisation of wind turbines using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), which has attracted enormous interest in the development of next-generation wind turbines in recent years. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art progress on optimisation of wind turbine performance using CFD, reviewing the objective functions to judge the performance of wind turbine, CFD approaches applied in the simulation of wind turbines and optimisation algorithms for wind turbine performance. This paper has been written for both researchers new to this research area by summarising underlying theory whilst presenting a comprehensive review on the up-to-date studies, and experts in the field of study by collecting a comprehensive list of related references where the details of computational methods that have been employed lately can be obtained

CAutoCSD-evolutionary search and optimisation enabled computer automated control system design

This paper attempts to set a unified scene for various linear time-invariant (LTI) control system design schemes, by transforming the existing concept of 'Computer-Aided Control System Design' (CACSD) to the novel 'Computer-Automated Control System Design' (CAutoCSD). The first step towards this goal is to accommodate, under practical constraints, various design objectives that are desirable in both time and frequency-domains. Such performance-prioritised unification is aimed to relieve practising engineers from having to select a particular control scheme and from sacrificing certain performance goals resulting from pre-committing to the adopted scheme. With the recent progress in evolutionary computing based extra-numeric, multi-criterion search and optimisation techniques, such unification of LTI control schemes becomes feasible, analytically and practically, and the resultant designs can be creative. The techniques developed are applied to, and illustrated by, three design problems. The unified approach automatically provides an integrator for zero-steady state error in velocity control of a DC motor, meets multiple objectives in designing an LTI controller for a non-minimum phase plant and offers a high-performing LTI controller network for a nonlinear chemical process