Review of Markov models for maintenance optimization in the context of offshore wind

The offshore environment poses a number of challenges to wind farm operators. Harsher climatic conditions typically result in lower reliability while challenges in accessibility make maintenance difficult. One of the ways to improve availability is to optimize the Operation and Maintenance (O&M) actions such as scheduled, corrective and proactive maintenance. Many authors have attempted to model or optimize O&M through the use of Markov models. Two examples of Markov models, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are investigated in this paper. In general, Markov models are a powerful statistical tool, which has been successfully applied for component diagnostics, prognostics and maintenance optimization across a range of industries. This paper discusses the suitability of these models to the offshore wind industry. Existing models which have been created for the wind industry are critically reviewed and discussed. As there is little evidence of widespread application of these models, this paper aims to highlight the key factors required for successful application of Markov models to practical problems. From this, the paper identifies the necessary theoretical and practical gaps that must be resolved in order to gain broad acceptance of Markov models to support O&M decision making in the offshore wind industry

Multi-machine preventive maintenance scheduling with imperfect interventions: A restless bandit approach

In this paper we address the problem of allocating the efforts of a collection of repairmen to a number of deteriorating machines in order to reduce operation costs and to mitigate the cost (and likelihood) of unexpected failures. Notwithstanding these preventive maintenance interventions are aimed at returning the machine to a so-called as-good-as-new state, unforeseeable factors may imply that maintenance interventions are not perfect and the machine is only returned to an earlier (uncertain) state of wear. The problem is modelled as a restless bandit problem and an index policy for the sequential allocation of maintenance tasks is proposed. A series of numerical experiments shows the strong performance of the proposed policy. Moreover, the methodology is of interest in the general context of dynamic resource allocation and restless bandit problems, as well as being useful in the particular imperfect maintenance model described

Prognostics-Based Two-Operator Competition for Maintenance and Service Part Logistics

Prognostics and timely maintenance of components are critical to the continuing operation of a system. By implementing prognostics, it is possible for the operator to maintain the system in the right place at the right time. However, the complexity in the real world makes near-zero downtime difficult to achieve partly because of a possible shortage of required service parts. This is realistic and quite important in maintenance practice. To coordinate with a prognostics-based maintenance schedule, the operator must decide when to order service parts and how to compete with other operators who also need the same parts. This research addresses a joint decision-making approach that assists two operators in making proactive maintenance decisions and strategically competing for a service part that both operators rely on for their individual operations. To this end, a maintenance policy involving competition in service part procurement is developed based on the Stackelberg game-theoretic model. Variations of the policy are formulated for three different scenarios and solved via either backward induction or genetic algorithm methods. Unlike the first two scenarios, the possibility for either of the operators being the leader in such competitions is considered in the third scenario. A numerical study on wind turbine operation is provided to demonstrate the use of the joint decision-making approach in maintenance and service part logistics

Some contributions to modeling usage sensitive warranty servicing strategies and their analyses

Providing a warranty as a part of a product\u27s sale is a common practice in industry. Parameters of such warranties (e.g., its duration limits, intensity of use) must be carefully specified to ensure their financial viability. A great deal of effort has been accordingly devoted in attempts to reduce the costs of warranties via appropriately designed strategies to service them. many such strategies, that aim to reduce the total expected costs of the warrantor or / and are appealing in other ways such as being more pragmatic to implement - have been suggested in the literature. Design, analysis and optimization of such servicing strategies is thus a topic of great research interest in many fields. In this dissertation, several warranty servicing strategies in two-dimensional warranty regimes, typically defined by a rectangle in the age-usage plane, have been proposed, analyzed and numerically illustrated. Two different approaches of modeling such usage sensitive warranty strategies are considered in the spirit of Jack, Iskandar and Murthy (2009) and Iskandar (2005). An `Accelerated Failure Time\u27 (AFT) formulation is employed to model product degradation resulting due to excessive usage rate of consumers. The focus of this research is on the analysis of warranty costs borne by the manufacturer (or seller or third party warranty providers) subject to various factors such as product\u27s sale price, consumer\u27s usage rate, types and costs of repair actions. By taking into account the impact of the rate of use of an item on its lifetime, a central focus of our research is on warranty cost models that are sensitive to the usage rate. Specifically, except the model in Chapter 4 where the rate at which an item is used is considered to be a random variable; all other warranty servicing policies that we consider, have usage rate as a fixed parameter, and hence are policies conditional on the rate of use. Such an approach allows us to examine the impact of a consumer\u27s usage rate on the expected warranty costs. For the purpose of designing warranties, exploring such sensitivity analysis may in fact suggest putting an upper limit on the rate of use within the warranty contract, as for example in case of new or leased vehicle warranties. A Bayesian approach of modeling 2-D Pro-rated warranty (PRW) with preventive maintenance is considered and explored in the spirit of Huang and Fang (2008). A decision regarding the optimal PRW proportion (paid by the manufacturer to repair failed item) and optimal warranty period that maximizes the expected profit of the rm under different usage rates of the consumers is explored in this research. A Bayesian updating process used in this context combines expert opinions with market data to improve the accuracy of the parameter estimates. The expected profit model investigated here captures the impact of juggling decision variables of 2-D pro-rated warranty and investigates the sensitivity of the total expected profit to the extent of mis-specification in prior information

A review on maintenance optimization

To this day, continuous developments of technical systems and increasing reliance on equipment have resulted in a growing importance of effective maintenance activities. During the last couple of decades, a substantial amount of research has been carried out on this topic. In this study we review more than two hundred papers on maintenance modeling and optimization that have appeared in the period 2001 to 2018. We begin by describing terms commonly used in the modeling process. Then, in our classification, we first distinguish single-unit and multi-unit systems. Further sub-classification follows, based on the state space of the deterioration process modeled. Other features that we discuss in this review are discrete and continuous condition monitoring, inspection, replacement, repair, and the various types of dependencies that may exist between units within systems. We end with the main developments during the review period and with potential future research directions

Integration of production, maintenance and quality : Modelling and solution approaches

Dans cette thèse, nous analysons le problème de l'intégration de la planification de production et de la maintenance préventive, ainsi que l'élaboration du système de contrôle de la qualité. Premièrement, on considère un système de production composé d'une machine et de plusieurs produits dans un contexte incertain, dont les prix et le coût changent d'une période à l'autre. La machine se détériore avec le temps et sa probabilité de défaillance, ainsi que le risque de passage à un état hors contrôle augmentent. Le taux de défaillance dans un état dégradé est plus élevé et donc, des coûts liés à la qualité s’imposent. Lorsque la machine tombe en panne, une maintenance corrective ou une réparation minimale seront initiées pour la remettre en marche sans influer ses conditions ou le processus de détérioration. L'augmentation du nombre de défaillances de la machine se traduit par un temps d'arrêt supérieur et un taux de disponibilité inférieur. D'autre part, la réalisation des plans de production est fortement influencée par la disponibilité et la fiabilité de la machine. Les interactions entre la planification de la maintenance et celle de la production sont incorporées dans notre modèle mathématique. Dans la première étape, l'effet de maintenance sur la qualité est pris en compte. La maintenance préventive est considérée comme imparfaite. La condition de la machine est définie par l’âge actuel, et la machine dispose de plusieurs niveaux de maintenance avec des caractéristiques différentes (coûts, délais d'exécution et impacts sur les conditions du système). La détermination des niveaux de maintenance préventive optimaux conduit à un problème d’optimisation difficile. Un modèle de maximisation du profit est développé, dans lequel la vente des produits conformes et non conformes, les coûts de la production, les stocks tenus, la rupture de stock, la configuration de la machine, la maintenance préventive et corrective, le remplacement de la machine et le coût de la qualité sont considérés dans la fonction de l’objectif. De plus, un système composé de plusieurs machines est étudié. Dans cette extension, les nombres optimaux d’inspections est également considéré. La fonction de l’objectif consiste à minimiser le coût total qui est la somme des coûts liés à la maintenance, la production et la qualité. Ensuite, en tenant compte de la complexité des modèles préposés, nous développons des méthodes de résolution efficaces qui sont fondées sur la combinaison d'algorithmes génétiques avec des méthodes de recherches locales. On présente un algorithme mimétique qui emploi l’algorithme Nelder-Mead, avec un logiciel d'optimisation pour déterminer les valeurs exactes de plusieurs variables de décisions à chaque évaluation. La méthode de résolution proposée est comparée, en termes de temps d’exécution et de qualités des solutions, avec plusieurs méthodes Métaheuristiques. Mots-clés : Planification de la production, Maintenance préventive imparfaite, Inspection, Qualité, Modèles intégrés, MétaheuristiquesIn this thesis, we study the integrated planning of production, maintenance, and quality in multi-product, multi-period imperfect systems. First, we consider a production system composed of one machine and several products in a time-varying context. The machine deteriorates with time and so, the probability of machine failure, or the risk of a shift to an out-of-control state, increases. The defective rate in the shifted state is higher and so, quality related costs will be imposed. When the machine fails, a corrective maintenance or a minimal repair will be initiated to bring the machine in operation without influencing on its conditions or on the deterioration process. Increasing the expected number of machine failures results in a higher downtime and a lower availability rate. On the other hand, realization of the production plans is significantly influenced by the machine availability and reliability. The interactions between maintenance scheduling and production planning are incorporated in the mathematical model. In the first step, the impact of maintenance on the expected quality level is addressed. The maintenance is also imperfect and the machine conditions after maintenance can be anywhere between as-good-as-new and as-bad-as-old situations. Machine conditions are stated by its effective age, and the machine has several maintenance levels with different costs, execution times, and impacts on the system conditions. High level maintenances on the one hand have greater influences on the improvement of the system state and on the other hand, they occupy more the available production time. The optimal determination of such preventive maintenance levels to be performed at each maintenance intrusion is a challenging problem. A profit maximization model is developed, where the sale of conforming and non-conforming products, costs of production, inventory holding, backorder, setup, preventive and corrective maintenance, machine replacement, and the quality cost are addressed in the objective function. Then, a system with multiple machines is taken into account. In this extension, the number of quality inspections is involved in the joint model. The objective function minimizes the total cost which is the sum of maintenance, production and quality costs. In order to reduce the gap between the theory and the application of joint models, and taking into account the complexity of the integrated problems, we have developed an efficient solution method that is based on the combination of genetic algorithms with local search and problem specific methods. The proposed memetic algorithm employs Nelder-Mead algorithm along with an optimization package for exact determination of the values of several decision variables in each chromosome evolution. The method extracts not only the positive knowledge in good solutions, but also the negative knowledge in poor individuals to determine the algorithm transitions. The method is compared in terms of the solution time and quality to several heuristic methods. Keywords : Multi-period production planning, Imperfect preventive maintenance, Inspection, Quality, Integrated model, Metaheuristic

Appropriate building repair and maintenance strategies using multicriteria decision-making analysis – a Delphi study

As an influential and significant factor in improving the service of building components and elements, maintenance plays an essential role in maintaining reliability, availability, and quality, as well as increasing efficiency and security. Therefore, how to define this maintenance system and determine the appropriate criteria and strategies for that play an important role in the cost and longevity of the buildings after construction and during their operation. The purpose of the article is to determine the effective criteria for evaluating buildings based on maintenance and repair (R&M) and finally determining the appropriate strategy for the maintenance of residential buildings, using multicriteria decision-making methods. These criteria were first identified by reviewing the literature and using the Delphi method to obtain the opinions of maintenance experts. The criteria were then prioritized, based on the SWARA method, and the results were compared and evaluated. Based on comparison, safety, health, environment, and proper utilisation were rated the top four criteria to consider for building R&M. Finally, using the VIKOR2 method, it was found that the breakdown maintenance (BM) and corrective maintenance (CM) strategies are the best strategies to use for the R&M of residential buildings

Production and maintenance planning of deteriorating manufacturing systems taking into account the quality of products

The research work presented in this thesis addresses the integration of quality aspects in the development of stochastic dynamic programming models. The goal is to determine the joint optimal production planning, and several maintenance strategies for an unreliable and deteriorating manufacturing system. In particular, we conjecture that deterioration has a severe influence on various aspects of the machine, thus this leads to divide our research work in three (3) phases. In the first one, we analyze the simultaneous production planning and quality control problem for an unreliable manufacturing system. The machine is subject to deterioration whose effect is observed mainly on the quality throughput. The quality related decisions involves a major overhaul strategy that counters the effect of deterioration. A simulation optimization approach is applied to determine the optimal control policy, providing a better understanding about the influence of quality deterioration on such system. The second phase of the research analyzes the fact where the deterioration of the production system is originated by a combination of several factors. We consider that the system deteriorates by the combined effect of the wear of the machine and imperfect repairs. Multiple operational states are implemented to model variations on the rate of defectives. Furthermore at failure, either a repair or a major overhaul can be conducted; however the machine deteriorates even more following repairs. We use a Semi-arkov decision model, since the rate of defectives is depended of the machine’s history denoted by the number of repairs and the set of multiple operational states. Then the simultaneous production plan, and repair/overhaul switching strategy are determined through numerical methods. The third phase complements the previous models by considering that the deterioration of the production systems has a twofold effect that decreases the quality of the parts produced and also increases the failure intensity. We employ the age of the machine to denote the progressive deterioration. At failure it is conducted a minimal repair that leaves the machine at the same level of deterioration before failure. To counter completely the effect of deterioration it can be performed a major overhaul. Moreover, this phase introduces preventive maintenance strategies to reduce partially the level of deterioration. This set of characteristics yields to formulate a Semi-Markov model that thorough numerical methods, we determine the joint optimal production plan and the overhaul and preventive maintenance strategies. This model clarifies the role of quality aspects on the optimal control policy. In this way our research deepens the effects of quality aspects and deterioration on the optimal control policy, and provides interesting contributions to the domain of stochastic control of manufacturing systems. Additionally, a number of numerical examples are conducted as illustration, and extensive sensitivity analyses are presented with the purpose to confirm the structure and validity of the obtained control policies. The models developed in this thesis provide further insights into the relations between the production policy and quality aspects in the context of deterioration, and also contribute to a better understanding about the behavior of stochastic manufacturing systems