55,778 research outputs found
Containing epidemic outbreaks by message-passing techniques
The problem of targeted network immunization can be defined as the one of
finding a subset of nodes in a network to immunize or vaccinate in order to
minimize a tradeoff between the cost of vaccination and the final (stationary)
expected infection under a given epidemic model. Although computing the
expected infection is a hard computational problem, simple and efficient
mean-field approximations have been put forward in the literature in recent
years. The optimization problem can be recast into a constrained one in which
the constraints enforce local mean-field equations describing the average
stationary state of the epidemic process. For a wide class of epidemic models,
including the susceptible-infected-removed and the
susceptible-infected-susceptible models, we define a message-passing approach
to network immunization that allows us to study the statistical properties of
epidemic outbreaks in the presence of immunized nodes as well as to find
(nearly) optimal immunization sets for a given choice of parameters and costs.
The algorithm scales linearly with the size of the graph and it can be made
efficient even on large networks. We compare its performance with topologically
based heuristics, greedy methods, and simulated annealing
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Software tools for stochastic programming: A Stochastic Programming Integrated Environment (SPInE)
SP models combine the paradigm of dynamic linear programming with
modelling of random parameters, providing optimal decisions which hedge
against future uncertainties. Advances in hardware as well as software
techniques and solution methods have made SP a viable optimisation tool.
We identify a growing need for modelling systems which support the creation
and investigation of SP problems. Our SPInE system integrates a number of
components which include a flexible modelling tool (based on stochastic
extensions of the algebraic modelling languages AMPL and MPL), stochastic
solvers, as well as special purpose scenario generators and database tools.
We introduce an asset/liability management model and illustrate how SPInE
can be used to create and process this model as a multistage SP application
Scalable Approach to Uncertainty Quantification and Robust Design of Interconnected Dynamical Systems
Development of robust dynamical systems and networks such as autonomous
aircraft systems capable of accomplishing complex missions faces challenges due
to the dynamically evolving uncertainties coming from model uncertainties,
necessity to operate in a hostile cluttered urban environment, and the
distributed and dynamic nature of the communication and computation resources.
Model-based robust design is difficult because of the complexity of the hybrid
dynamic models including continuous vehicle dynamics, the discrete models of
computations and communications, and the size of the problem. We will overview
recent advances in methodology and tools to model, analyze, and design robust
autonomous aerospace systems operating in uncertain environment, with stress on
efficient uncertainty quantification and robust design using the case studies
of the mission including model-based target tracking and search, and trajectory
planning in uncertain urban environment. To show that the methodology is
generally applicable to uncertain dynamical systems, we will also show examples
of application of the new methods to efficient uncertainty quantification of
energy usage in buildings, and stability assessment of interconnected power
networks
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