5,859 research outputs found

    HMM based scenario generation for an investment optimisation problem

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    This is the post-print version of the article. The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2012 Springer-Verlag.The Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a standard method for modelling financial time series. An important criticism of this method is that the parameters of the GBM are assumed to be constants; due to this fact, important features of the time series, like extreme behaviour or volatility clustering cannot be captured. We propose an approach by which the parameters of the GBM are able to switch between regimes, more precisely they are governed by a hidden Markov chain. Thus, we model the financial time series via a hidden Markov model (HMM) with a GBM in each state. Using this approach, we generate scenarios for a financial portfolio optimisation problem in which the portfolio CVaR is minimised. Numerical results are presented.This study was funded by NET ACE at OptiRisk Systems

    Efficiency Analysis of Swarm Intelligence and Randomization Techniques

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    Swarm intelligence has becoming a powerful technique in solving design and scheduling tasks. Metaheuristic algorithms are an integrated part of this paradigm, and particle swarm optimization is often viewed as an important landmark. The outstanding performance and efficiency of swarm-based algorithms inspired many new developments, though mathematical understanding of metaheuristics remains partly a mystery. In contrast to the classic deterministic algorithms, metaheuristics such as PSO always use some form of randomness, and such randomization now employs various techniques. This paper intends to review and analyze some of the convergence and efficiency associated with metaheuristics such as firefly algorithm, random walks, and L\'evy flights. We will discuss how these techniques are used and their implications for further research.Comment: 10 pages. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1212.0220, arXiv:1208.0527, arXiv:1003.146

    A Model for Optimal Human Navigation with Stochastic Effects

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    We present a method for optimal path planning of human walking paths in mountainous terrain, using a control theoretic formulation and a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Previous models for human navigation were entirely deterministic, assuming perfect knowledge of the ambient elevation data and human walking velocity as a function of local slope of the terrain. Our model includes a stochastic component which can account for uncertainty in the problem, and thus includes a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation with viscosity. We discuss the model in the presence and absence of stochastic effects, and suggest numerical methods for simulating the model. We discuss two different notions of an optimal path when there is uncertainty in the problem. Finally, we compare the optimal paths suggested by the model at different levels of uncertainty, and observe that as the size of the uncertainty tends to zero (and thus the viscosity in the equation tends to zero), the optimal path tends toward the deterministic optimal path
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