5,859 research outputs found
HMM based scenario generation for an investment optimisation problem
This is the post-print version of the article. The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2012 Springer-Verlag.The Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a standard method for modelling financial time series. An important criticism of this method is that the parameters of the GBM are assumed to be constants; due to this fact, important features of the time series, like extreme behaviour or volatility clustering cannot be captured. We propose an approach by which the parameters of the GBM are able to switch between regimes, more precisely they are governed by a hidden Markov chain. Thus, we model the financial time series via a hidden Markov model (HMM) with a GBM in each state. Using this approach, we generate scenarios for a financial portfolio optimisation problem in which the portfolio CVaR is minimised. Numerical results are presented.This study was funded by NET ACE at OptiRisk Systems
Efficiency Analysis of Swarm Intelligence and Randomization Techniques
Swarm intelligence has becoming a powerful technique in solving design and
scheduling tasks. Metaheuristic algorithms are an integrated part of this
paradigm, and particle swarm optimization is often viewed as an important
landmark. The outstanding performance and efficiency of swarm-based algorithms
inspired many new developments, though mathematical understanding of
metaheuristics remains partly a mystery. In contrast to the classic
deterministic algorithms, metaheuristics such as PSO always use some form of
randomness, and such randomization now employs various techniques. This paper
intends to review and analyze some of the convergence and efficiency associated
with metaheuristics such as firefly algorithm, random walks, and L\'evy
flights. We will discuss how these techniques are used and their implications
for further research.Comment: 10 pages. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with
arXiv:1212.0220, arXiv:1208.0527, arXiv:1003.146
A Model for Optimal Human Navigation with Stochastic Effects
We present a method for optimal path planning of human walking paths in
mountainous terrain, using a control theoretic formulation and a
Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Previous models for human navigation were
entirely deterministic, assuming perfect knowledge of the ambient elevation
data and human walking velocity as a function of local slope of the terrain.
Our model includes a stochastic component which can account for uncertainty in
the problem, and thus includes a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation with
viscosity. We discuss the model in the presence and absence of stochastic
effects, and suggest numerical methods for simulating the model. We discuss two
different notions of an optimal path when there is uncertainty in the problem.
Finally, we compare the optimal paths suggested by the model at different
levels of uncertainty, and observe that as the size of the uncertainty tends to
zero (and thus the viscosity in the equation tends to zero), the optimal path
tends toward the deterministic optimal path
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