A Novel Predictive-Coding-Inspired Variational RNN Model for Online Prediction and Recognition

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.Comment: The paper is accepted in Neural Computatio

Diffusion Adaptation Strategies for Distributed Optimization and Learning over Networks

We propose an adaptive diffusion mechanism to optimize a global cost function in a distributed manner over a network of nodes. The cost function is assumed to consist of a collection of individual components. Diffusion adaptation allows the nodes to cooperate and diffuse information in real-time; it also helps alleviate the effects of stochastic gradient noise and measurement noise through a continuous learning process. We analyze the mean-square-error performance of the algorithm in some detail, including its transient and steady-state behavior. We also apply the diffusion algorithm to two problems: distributed estimation with sparse parameters and distributed localization. Compared to well-studied incremental methods, diffusion methods do not require the use of a cyclic path over the nodes and are robust to node and link failure. Diffusion methods also endow networks with adaptation abilities that enable the individual nodes to continue learning even when the cost function changes with time. Examples involving such dynamic cost functions with moving targets are common in the context of biological networks.Comment: 34 pages, 6 figures, to appear in IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 201

A framework for adaptive Monte-Carlo procedures

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are recent variance reduction techniques. In this work, we propose a mathematical setting which greatly relaxes the assumptions needed by for the adaptive importance sampling techniques presented by Vazquez-Abad and Dufresne, Fu and Su, and Arouna. We establish the convergence and asymptotic normality of the adaptive Monte Carlo estimator under local assumptions which are easily verifiable in practice. We present one way of approximating the optimal importance sampling parameter using a randomly truncated stochastic algorithm. Finally, we apply this technique to some examples of valuation of financial derivatives

Adaptive channel selection for DOA estimation in MIMO radar

We present adaptive strategies for antenna selection for Direction of Arrival (DoA) estimation of a far-field source using TDM MIMO radar with linear arrays. Our treatment is formulated within a general adaptive sensing framework that uses one-step ahead predictions of the Bayesian MSE using a parametric family of Weiss-Weinstein bounds that depend on previous measurements. We compare in simulations our strategy with adaptive policies that optimize the Bobrovsky- Zaka{\i} bound and the Expected Cram\'er-Rao bound, and show the performance for different levels of measurement noise.Comment: Submitted to the 25th European Signal Processing Conference (EUSIPCO), 201

Prediction for control

5th IFAC Conference on System Structure and Control 1998 (SSC'98), Nantes, France, 8-10 JulyThis paper shows that "optimal" controllers based on "optimal" predictor structures are not "optimal" in their closed loop behaviour and that predictors should be designed taking into account closed-loop considerations. This is first illustrated with a first order plant with delay. The ISE index is computed for two typical optimal controllers (minimum variance controller and generalized predictive controller) when a stochastic disturbance is considered. The results are compared to those obtained by the use of a non optimal PI controller that uses a non optimal Smith predictor and performs better than the optimal controllers for the illustrative example. A general structure for predictors is proposed. In order to illustrate the results, some simulation examples are shown.Ce papier montre que des lois de commandes "optimales" basees sur des structures predictives "optimales" ne sont pas "optimales" dans leur comportement en boucle fermee et que la synthese de predicteurs devrait prendre en compte des considerations de boucle fermee. Cela est d'abord illustre avec un systeme du premier ordre a retard. l'index ISE est calcule pour deux lois de commandes optimales typiques (loi de commande a variance minim ale et loi de commande predictive generalisee), quand une perturbation stochastique est consideree. Les resultats sont compares a. ceux obtenus avec un regulateur PI non optimal base sur un predicteur de Smith non optimal et sont, pour l'exemple illustratif, meilleurs que ceux obtenus avec un regulateur optimal. Vne structure generale de predicteur est proposee. Pour illustrer les resultats, des exemples de simulations sont montres