1,100 research outputs found
Joint Covariance Estimation with Mutual Linear Structure
We consider the problem of joint estimation of structured covariance
matrices. Assuming the structure is unknown, estimation is achieved using
heterogeneous training sets. Namely, given groups of measurements coming from
centered populations with different covariances, our aim is to determine the
mutual structure of these covariance matrices and estimate them. Supposing that
the covariances span a low dimensional affine subspace in the space of
symmetric matrices, we develop a new efficient algorithm discovering the
structure and using it to improve the estimation. Our technique is based on the
application of principal component analysis in the matrix space. We also derive
an upper performance bound of the proposed algorithm in the Gaussian scenario
and compare it with the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Numerical simulations are
presented to illustrate the performance benefits of the proposed method
Performance analysis and optimal selection of large mean-variance portfolios under estimation risk
We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily
high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input
parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the
number of assets remains comparable in magnitude to the sample size, we provide
a characterization of the estimation risk by providing deterministic
equivalents of the portfolio out-of-sample performance in terms of the
underlying investment scenario. The previous estimates represent a means of
quantifying the amount of risk underestimation and return overestimation of
improved portfolio constructions beyond standard ones. Well-known for the
latter, if not corrected, these deviations lead to inaccurate and overly
optimistic Sharpe-based investment decisions. Our results are based on recent
contributions in the field of random matrix theory. Along with the asymptotic
analysis, the analytical framework allows us to find bias corrections improving
on the achieved out-of-sample performance of typical portfolio constructions.
Some numerical simulations validate our theoretical findings
Markov Chain Monte Carlo confidence intervals
For a reversible and ergodic Markov chain with invariant
distribution , we show that a valid confidence interval for can
be constructed whenever the asymptotic variance is finite and
positive. We do not impose any additional condition on the convergence rate of
the Markov chain. The confidence interval is derived using the so-called
fixed-b lag-window estimator of . We also derive a result that
suggests that the proposed confidence interval procedure converges faster than
classical confidence interval procedures based on the Gaussian distribution and
standard central limit theorems for Markov chains.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/15-BEJ712 in the Bernoulli
(http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical
Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm
Frequency-Domain Stochastic Modeling of Stationary Bivariate or Complex-Valued Signals
There are three equivalent ways of representing two jointly observed
real-valued signals: as a bivariate vector signal, as a single complex-valued
signal, or as two analytic signals known as the rotary components. Each
representation has unique advantages depending on the system of interest and
the application goals. In this paper we provide a joint framework for all three
representations in the context of frequency-domain stochastic modeling. This
framework allows us to extend many established statistical procedures for
bivariate vector time series to complex-valued and rotary representations.
These include procedures for parametrically modeling signal coherence,
estimating model parameters using the Whittle likelihood, performing
semi-parametric modeling, and choosing between classes of nested models using
model choice. We also provide a new method of testing for impropriety in
complex-valued signals, which tests for noncircular or anisotropic second-order
statistical structure when the signal is represented in the complex plane.
Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our methodology in capturing the
anisotropic structure of signals observed from fluid dynamic simulations of
turbulence.Comment: To appear in IEEE Transactions on Signal Processin
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