153,884 research outputs found

    Almost the Best of Three Worlds: Risk, Consistency and Optional Stopping for the Switch Criterion in Nested Model Selection

    Get PDF
    We study the switch distribution, introduced by Van Erven et al. (2012), applied to model selection and subsequent estimation. While switching was known to be strongly consistent, here we show that it achieves minimax optimal parametric risk rates up to a loglogn\log\log n factor when comparing two nested exponential families, partially confirming a conjecture by Lauritzen (2012) and Cavanaugh (2012) that switching behaves asymptotically like the Hannan-Quinn criterion. Moreover, like Bayes factor model selection but unlike standard significance testing, when one of the models represents a simple hypothesis, the switch criterion defines a robust null hypothesis test, meaning that its Type-I error probability can be bounded irrespective of the stopping rule. Hence, switching is consistent, insensitive to optional stopping and almost minimax risk optimal, showing that, Yang's (2005) impossibility result notwithstanding, it is possible to `almost' combine the strengths of AIC and Bayes factor model selection.Comment: To appear in Statistica Sinic

    FATODE: A Library for Forward, Adjoint, and Tangent Linear Integration of ODEs

    Get PDF
    FATODE is a FORTRAN library for the integration of ordinary differential equations with direct and adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities. The paper describes the capabilities, implementation, code organization, and usage of this package. FATODE implements four families of methods -- explicit Runge-Kutta for nonstiff problems and fully implicit Runge-Kutta, singly diagonally implicit Runge-Kutta, and Rosenbrock for stiff problems. Each family contains several methods with different orders of accuracy; users can add new methods by simply providing their coefficients. For each family the forward, adjoint, and tangent linear models are implemented. General purpose solvers for dense and sparse linear algebra are used; users can easily incorporate problem-tailored linear algebra routines. The performance of the package is demonstrated on several test problems. To the best of our knowledge FATODE is the first publicly available general purpose package that offers forward and adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities in the context of Runge Kutta methods. A wide range of applications are expected to benefit from its use; examples include parameter estimation, data assimilation, optimal control, and uncertainty quantification

    SPACE-TIME ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION UNDER FIXED-DOMAIN ASYMPTOTICS WITH COMPACTLY SUPPORTED COVARIANCE FUNCTIONS

    Get PDF
    We study the estimation and prediction of Gaussian processes with spacetime covariance models belonging to the dynamical generalized Wendland (DGW) family, under fixed-domain asymptotics. Such a class is nonseparable, has dynamical compact supports, and parameterizes differentiability at the origin similarly to the space-time Matern class.Our results are presented in two parts. First, we establish the strong consistency and asymptotic normality for the maximum likelihood estimator of the microergodic parameter associated with the DGW covariance model, under fixed-domain asymptotics. The second part focuses on optimal kriging prediction under the DGW model and an asymptotically correct estimation of the mean squared error using a misspecified model. Our theoretical results are, in turn, based on the equivalence of Gaussian measures under some given families of space-time covariance functions, where both space or time are compact. The technical results are provided in the online Supplementary material
    corecore