多様なゲームについての論理的研究

要約のみTohoku University田中一之課

A survey of random processes with reinforcement

The models surveyed include generalized P\'{o}lya urns, reinforced random walks, interacting urn models, and continuous reinforced processes. Emphasis is on methods and results, with sketches provided of some proofs. Applications are discussed in statistics, biology, economics and a number of other areas.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-PS094 in the Probability Surveys (http://www.i-journals.org/ps/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A Survey of Monte Carlo Tree Search Methods

Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) is a recently proposed search method that combines the precision of tree search with the generality of random sampling. It has received considerable interest due to its spectacular success in the difficult problem of computer Go, but has also proved beneficial in a range of other domains. This paper is a survey of the literature to date, intended to provide a snapshot of the state of the art after the first five years of MCTS research. We outline the core algorithm's derivation, impart some structure on the many variations and enhancements that have been proposed, and summarize the results from the key game and nongame domains to which MCTS methods have been applied. A number of open research questions indicate that the field is ripe for future work

Combinatorial Optimization

This report summarizes the meeting on Combinatorial Optimization where new and promising developments in the field were discussed. Th

Visualising Multiplayer Game Spaces

We investigate four different sets of statistics as ‘game-spaces’ in which to embed 2, 3 and 4 player modern board-games, and show how each can provide distinct insight. Using statistics gained from multiple optimisation runs of MCTS parameters creates a game-space that is particularly interpretable to show what algorithmic settings work well for different games. Using classic game-tree attributes to define a game-space does not correlate with these findings. For each game-space we visualise the distribution of games and ask if there are differences as the number of players, or opponent type, varies. We find this does occur for some games in the sample set. Visualising games using the different sets of statistics can help understand their commonalities and differences, but can hide the detail of a specific game's response to changing player count. A more detailed game ‘fingerprint’ using the statistics based on optimised MCTS parameters is better at distinguishing which games exhibit significant changes with player count or opponent

Correlation decay and decentralized optimization in graphical models

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Operations Research Center, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 213-229) and index.Many models of optimization, statistics, social organizations and machine learning capture local dependencies by means of a network that describes the interconnections and interactions of different components. However, in most cases, optimization or inference on these models is hard due to the dimensionality of the networks. This is so even when using algorithms that take advantage of the underlying graphical structure. Approximate methods are therefore needed. The aim of this thesis is to study such large-scale systems, focusing on the question of how randomness affects the complexity of optimizing in a graph; of particular interest is the study of a phenomenon known as correlation decay, namely, the phenomenon where the influence of a node on another node of the network decreases quickly as the distance between them grows. In the first part of this thesis, we develop a new message-passing algorithm for optimization in graphical models. We formally prove a connection between the correlation decay property and (i) the near-optimality of this algorithm, as well as (ii) the decentralized nature of optimal solutions. In the context of discrete optimization with random costs, we develop a technique for establishing that a system exhibits correlation decay. We illustrate the applicability of the method by giving concrete results for the cases of uniform and Gaussian distributed cost coefficients in networks with bounded connectivity. In the second part, we pursue similar questions in a combinatorial optimization setting: we consider the problem of finding a maximum weight independent set in a bounded degree graph, when the node weights are i.i.d. random variables.(cont.) Surprisingly, we discover that the problem becomes tractable for certain distributions. Specifically, we construct a PTAS for the case of exponentially distributed weights and arbitrary graphs with degree at most 3, and obtain generalizations for higher degrees and different distributions. At the same time we prove that no PTAS exists for the case of exponentially distributed weights for graphs with sufficiently large but bounded degree, unless P=NP. Next, we shift our focus to graphical games, which are a game-theoretic analog of graphical models. We establish a connection between the problem of finding an approximate Nash equilibrium in a graphical game and the problem of optimization in graphical models. We use this connection to re-derive NashProp, a message-passing algorithm which computes Nash equilibria for graphical games on trees; we also suggest several new search algorithms for graphical games in general networks. Finally, we propose a definition of correlation decay in graphical games, and establish that the property holds in a restricted family of graphical games. The last part of the thesis is devoted to a particular application of graphical models and message-passing algorithms to the problem of early prediction of Alzheimer's disease. To this end, we develop a new measure of synchronicity between different parts of the brain, and apply it to electroencephalogram data. We show that the resulting prediction method outperforms a vast number of other EEG-based measures in the task of predicting the onset of Alzheimer's disease.by Théophane Weber.Ph.D

Stochastic Combinatorial Optimization via Poisson Approximation

We study several stochastic combinatorial problems, including the expected utility maximization problem, the stochastic knapsack problem and the stochastic bin packing problem. A common technical challenge in these problems is to optimize some function of the sum of a set of random variables. The difficulty is mainly due to the fact that the probability distribution of the sum is the convolution of a set of distributions, which is not an easy objective function to work with. To tackle this difficulty, we introduce the Poisson approximation technique. The technique is based on the Poisson approximation theorem discovered by Le Cam, which enables us to approximate the distribution of the sum of a set of random variables using a compound Poisson distribution. We first study the expected utility maximization problem introduced recently [Li and Despande, FOCS11]. For monotone and Lipschitz utility functions, we obtain an additive PTAS if there is a multidimensional PTAS for the multi-objective version of the problem, strictly generalizing the previous result. For the stochastic bin packing problem (introduced in [Kleinberg, Rabani and Tardos, STOC97]), we show there is a polynomial time algorithm which uses at most the optimal number of bins, if we relax the size of each bin and the overflow probability by eps. For stochastic knapsack, we show a 1+eps-approximation using eps extra capacity, even when the size and reward of each item may be correlated and cancelations of items are allowed. This generalizes the previous work [Balghat, Goel and Khanna, SODA11] for the case without correlation and cancelation. Our algorithm is also simpler. We also present a factor 2+eps approximation algorithm for stochastic knapsack with cancelations. the current known approximation factor of 8 [Gupta, Krishnaswamy, Molinaro and Ravi, FOCS11].Comment: 42 pages, 1 figure, Preliminary version appears in the Proceeding of the 45th ACM Symposium on the Theory of Computing (STOC13