Generalized asset pricing: Expected Downside Risk-Based Equilibrium Modelling

We introduce an equilibrium asset pricing model, which we build on the relationship between a novel risk measure, the Expected Downside Risk (EDR) and the expected return. On the one hand, our proposed risk measure uses a nonparametric approach that allows us to get rid of any assumption on the distribution of returns. On the other hand, our asset pricing model is based on loss-averse investors of Prospect Theory, through which we implement the risk-seeking behaviour of investors in a dynamic setting. By including EDR in our proposed model unrealistic assumptions of commonly used equilibrium models - such as the exclusion of risk-seeking or price-maker investors and the assumption of unlimited leverage opportunity for a unique interest rate - can be omitted. Therefore, we argue that based on more realistic assumptions our model is able to describe equilibrium expected returns with higher accuracy, which we support by empirical evidence as well.Comment: 55 pages, 15 figures, 1 table, 3 appandices, Econ. Model. (2015

Taxation, Risk, and Portfolio Choice: The Treatment of Returns to Risk Under a Normative Income Tax

Many articles in the legal and economic literature claim that a pure Haig-Simons income tax cannot effectively tax investment income. This is because an investor can use leverage to gross up her investments in risky assets such that the increased gain (or loss) exactly offsets any income tax (or deduction) on the returns to risk-taking. This article argues, however, that while it is possible for an investor to make such portfolio shifts, she almost certainly will not because of the increased risk of doing so. Central to any discussion of the effects of taxation on investment risk-taking is the meaning of risk itself. The central claim of this article is that a better conception of investment risk is the risk of loss and not merely the variance of returns. Applying this notion of risk—one that is well supported in the finance literature but new to the taxation-and-risk literature—to an investor’s portfolio choice question shows that an investor will not increase her investment in risky assets by enough to offset the tax. As a result, there is an effective tax on investment risk-taking under a normative income tax

Revisiting the Home Bias Puzzle. Downside Equity Risk

Deviations from normality in financial return series have led to the development of alternative portfolio selection models. One such model is the downside risk model, whereby the investor maximizes his return given a downside risk constraint. In this paper we empirically observe the international equity allocation for the downside risk investor using 9 international markets’ returns over the last 34 years. The results are stable for various robustness checks. Investors may think globally, but instead act locally, due to greater downside risk. The results provide an alternative view of the home bias phenomenon, documented in international financial markets.Asset Pricing, Home Bias, Downside Risk, Prospect Theory

Asymmetry, Loss Aversion and Forecasting

Conditional volatility models, such as GARCH, have been used extensively in financial applications to capture predictable variation in the second moment of asset returns. However, with recent theoretical literature emphasising the loss averse nature of agents, this paper considers models which capture time variation in the second lower partial moment. Utility based evaluation is carried out on several approaches to modelling the conditional second order lower partial moment (or semi-variance), including distribution and regime based models. The findings show that when agents are loss averse, there are utility gains to be made from using models which explicitly capture this feature (rather than trying to approximate using symmetric volatility models). In general direct approaches to modelling the semi-variance are preferred to distribution based models. These results are relevant to risk management and help to link the theoretical discussion on loss aversion to emprical modellingAsymmetry, loss aversion, semi-variance, volatility models.

RISK-SHARING AS A DETERMINANT OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE: INTERNAL FINANCING, DEBT, AND (OUTSIDE) EQUITY

This paper proposes a historically-grounded mechanism-design model of corporate finance, with two-side risk aversion under limited contract enforceability, where (inside) equity held by entrepreneurs, debt and (outside) equity coexist. This capital structure shares optimally the non-diversifiable risk associated with costly and risky ventures. Furthermore, it uniquely sustains the optimal risk allocation if agents' personal wealth is contractible at a higher enforcement cost than the projects' returns. Otherwise, the irrelevance theorem of Modigliani and Miller applies. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, we observe that (i) risk-averse merchants-entrepreneurs financed part of their ventures (hold inside equity) and raised additional funds from risk-averse investors through debt-like sea loan and equity-like commenda contracts when long-distance medieval trade was indeed highly costly and risky and that (ii) maritime insurance, with higher protection against the non-diversifiable "risk of loss at sea or from the action of men" but higher enforcement costs, did not develop until the mid-fourteenth century, when the ventures' costs and risk had decreased significantly. Whereas the model emphasizes the entrepreneurs' equity holdings and the limited-liability aspects of debt and equity, the choice between debt or equity derives from simple, although historically backed, information assumptions. The analysis is therefore complementary to other capital-structure theories based on agency costs, information asymmetries, signalling, transaction costs and incomplete contracting.debt contracts, capital structure, creditworthiness, enforceability, inside and outside equity, insurance, limited liability, private information, risk-sharing

Retirement saving with contribution payments and labor income as a benchmark for investments.

In this paper we study the retirement saving problem from the point of view of a plan sponsor, who makes contribution payments for the future retirement of an employee. The plan sponsor considers the employee's labor income as investment-benchmark in order to ensure the continuation of consumption habits after retirement. We demonstrate that the demand for risky assets increases at low wealth levels due to the contribution payments. We quantify the demand for hedging against changes in wage growth and find that it is relatively small. We show that downside-risk measures increase risk-taking at both low and high levels of wealth

Portfolio Selection with Narrow Framing: Probability Weighting Matters

This paper extends the model with narrow framing suggested by Barberis and Huang (2009) to also account for probability weighting and a convex-concave value function in the specification of cumulative prospect theory preferences on narrowly framed assets. We show that probability weighting is needed in order that investors reduce their holding of narrowly framed risky assets in the presence of negative skewness and high Sharpe ratios, which are typical characteristics of stock index returns. The model with framing and probability weighting can thus explain the stock participation puzzle under realistic assumptions on stock market returns. We also show that a convex-concave value function generates wealth effects that are consistent with empirical observations on stock market participation. Finally, we address the asset pricing implications of probability weighting in the model with narrow framing and show that in the case of negative skewness the equity premium of narrowly framed assets is much higher than when probability weighting is not taken into account.Narrow framing, cumulative prospect theory, probability weighting function,negative skewness, simulation methods

A dynamic programming approach to constrained portfolios

This paper studies constrained portfolio problems that may involve constraints on the probability or the expected size of a shortfall of wealth or consumption. Our first contribution is that we solve the problems by dynamic programming, which is in contrast to the existing literature that applies the martingale method. More precisely, we construct the non-separable value function by formalizing the optimal constrained terminal wealth to be a (conjectured) contingent claim on the optimal non-constrained terminal wealth. This is relevant by itself, but also opens up the opportunity to derive new solutions to constrained problems. As a second contribution, we thus derive new results for non-strict constraints on the shortfall of inter¬mediate wealth and/or consumption